This is a continuation of my post yesterday. The Twins fans on the ESPN comments section have decided that Bill Smith is a good GM and are telling me that my comments are absurd. I will now burn a strawman.
"Lets start with Santana, who the Twins offered 4 yrs at $80m and he turned down.
I had forgotten that Santana turned down a 4 year/80 million dollar contract to re-sign. Damnit. I hate it when I'm wrong. So I'll admit to a mistake there.
"Santana had already made up his mind that he wanted out and wouldn't resign (largely in part of getting rid of Castillo), so Smith, in his first couple WEEKS on the job, had to make the choice of trading Santana or playing out the season and then letting him walk."
Well, Santana turned down the extension in Spring Training. It's not like they offered it at the end of the season and Agent Smith (Bill Smith, I feel like he should talk and act like this) was surprised and didn't know what to do. They knew the whole season that Johan wasn't going to re-sign, at that price. From the Star Tribune on October 2, 2007 "The Twins expressed interest in signing Santana and other top players to multiyear deals as far back as January, but ultimately, only Joe Mauer signed a long-term deal. Santana warned them at the time that market forces would drive up his price." The article continues "'Everything about the Twins, I love,' Santana said. "At the same time, if I have to go somewhere else, and it's for the better, I'll do it. I won't have any problems with that.'" Now obviously there was some displeasure from the Castillo trade. He took it to mean that the Twins were not going to offer the amount of money he was seeking and that playing for the Mets would be ok.
So at this point, the options were: Trade Johan or let him pitch the season and let him walk as a free agent.
The Twins decided that they were going to trade him. There were no other plans in place. When the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets were the only serious contenders, Smith did not back down. When the Yankees refused to part with some prospects, Smith did not back down. He eventually pulled the trigger to send him to the Mets in exchange for Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber. The prospects were ranked 2, 3, 4, and 7 on the Mets farm system ranking according to Baseball America. However, that system was pretty diluted. Baseball America wrote,"scouts from other organizations say the Mets have little immediate help on the way in the farm system." Continuing they wrote "The lack of talent in part reflects New York's decision not to wield its large-market resources to acquire talent in the last two years." This is found on page 286 of Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Deolis Guerra was 17 years old at the time and apparently the key in the deal. He had two above-average pitches but had yet to produce a 100 inning professional season. He had been projected by Baseball America, as the #4 starter on the 2011 pitching staff. Carlos Gomez was the #3 prospect in the Mets system, he was major-league ready except his lack of patience at the plate. The Twins were looking for a centerfielder because Torii Hunter had just departed as a free agent. Mulvey was ranked #4, take it away Baseball America. "His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts. Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily...He has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastball from his days at Villanova...He projects as a No.3 or 4 starter." Finally, there is Philip Humber. He got shelled in his one start at the Major League level in 2007. Baseball America says,"He now porjects as a back-of-the-rotation starter." Can't you feel the excitement? 3 back of the rotation starters and an outfielder who needs patience at the plate for the best pitcher in the American League?
Had he let Santana walk at the end of the year, Santana would have netted the Twins two draft picks, a probable first round pick and a supplemental first round pick. They would not have needed game 163 to decide who went to the playoffs.
"There were only a couple teams in the market for Santana, and Smith had just started the job. It's difficult to fault him as much as you do for that trade"
Yep, that is true. There were only a couple teams in the market. Once the Yankees bowed out, there was really only one team. Instead of simply cutting his losses at that point and tried to compete with Santana in the rotation, Smith decided to trade Santana for a below average group of prospects. The best course of action was to play out the season and net the draft picks. Instead, Smith was intent on trading Santana and it hurt him.
But despite all that, I'm willing to forgive. Carlos Gomez got us JJ Hardy, which was excellent. Smith traded Mulvey for Jon Rauch, which was another good trade. I don't fault Smith much for the trade, it was a bad decision, by trading those same prospects he admitted as much.
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