This is Part 1 of the analysis of the Bill Smith era. He took over as GM on September 13, 2007. All moves since then have been under his watch , obviously.
This will just be the moves made from September 13, 2007 until the end of the regular season of 2008.
1. October 29, 2007: Exercised option on Joe Nathan for the 2008 season- Great move. Joe Nathan made six million dollars in 2008. He had an ERA+ of 316, just amazing. His ERA+ the previous year was only 229. His brWAR was 3.2, he was pretty good that year.
2. November 13, 2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later or cash, I guess. I can't find any information about who this player to be named later was. However, Monroe did not last very long. He had an 81 OPS+ with a slash line of .202/.274/.405 in 2008, he was released on August 8, 2008. In 2007, he only had an OPS+ of 64 with an overall slash line of .219/.268/.370. This was a classic buy low scenario as the previous three years he had an OPS+ of 99, 104, 116. So, a no-risk move intended to end with a reward.
3. November 28, 2007: Acquired outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris from the Tampa Bay Rays for infielder Jason Bartlett and pitchers Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan. This one is quite hard to fathom. I was kind of excited at the time to see Young in a Twins uniform if only so he could throw a bat at an umpire from the dugout. Despite his off-field problems, Young was considered a star in the making. Pridie was a prospect of some sort, at least he was supposed to be a major league ready centerfielder (since Torii Hunter was about to hit free agency). Brendan Harris had been a prospect for numerous teams but had never quite stuck in MLB. Garza had pitched a total of 133 innings in the majors and in 2007 had posted an ERA of 3.69 and an ERA+ of 117. Bartlett had finished four seasons in the majors, he was mainly regarded as a good-field/no-hit shortstop. He was providing some value, though. As for Eduardo Morlan, he is a pitcher who hasn't made it past AA and is a relief pitcher who has a decent K/9 but a bad BB/9.
Since the trade: Delmon Young has netted a total of 0.3 brWAR (-0.2, -0.3, and 0.8) in three years. Harris contributed a total of -0.2 brWAR (1, -0.4, -0.8), Pridie had seven plate appearances and was claimed on waivers by both New York Teams.
The Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Garza netted 9.0 brWAR (3.2, 3.8, 2.0) in three years. Bartlett netted 6.8 brWAR (0.3, 5.0, 1.5) in three years. Morlan did not appear in the Majors. Overall, Smith and the Twins got fleeced in the trade unless Young develops some plate discipline and turns around his career.
4. February 2, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
With Santana just a year away from free agency, the Twins were forced to believe that they would have to trade him in order to get any value for him. However, he would have netted them a first round pick and a supplemental first round draft pick had he just left in free agency, but regardless. They shopped Santana around to find a suitable package, there were rumors from both the Red Sox and Yankees. Speculation since then has indicated that the Red Sox may have been bluffing to force the Yankees to overbid. Instead, Smith took the Mets package. Guerra, Gomez, Humber, and Mulvey were not even the Mets best prospects that year, according to Baseball America.
In 2008, Santana's brWAR was 6.4. All value past 2008, would not have been with the Twins so I won't even include it. Keep in mind that that Smith had just traded young starter Matt Garza, earlier in the offseason too.
The package after the trade: Philip Humber 20.2 innings in 2008-2009 before he was granted free agency. His brWAR for the two seasons was -0.2. Carlos Gomez was an ok outfield prospect. He had problems with plate discipline, even as a prospect, and made up for it with his speed. He played two seasons for the Twins before getting traded for J.J. Hardy, his brWAR was 3 (2.1, 0.9). Mulvey pitched 1.1 innings in the majors for the Twins before eventually getting traded for Jon Rauch. Guerra is still a pitching prospect and has not really learned how to pitch with his stuff as both his ERA and FIP are pretty high in the minors. Marc Hulet from fangraphs has an article on this trade, here. Interestingly enough, according to the list of transactions on ESPN's Twins site, this trade never happened
5. February 12, 2008:Signed Livan Hernandez to a one year contract. After realizing that he traded away a young starter in Garza and his staff ace in Santana, Smith thought it would be a good idea to sign a pitcher for their rotation. He opted for Livan Hernandez. In 2007, Livan had an ERA+ of 96, slightly below average and a brWAR of 1.5. He was not a terrible choice for the rotation, however, Santana and Garza were much better. In 2008, Livan had a negative brWAR of -0.4 and an ERA+ of 77 and was on waivers when the Rockies selected him.
6. March 25, 2008: Agreed to a three year extension with Joe Nathan with a club option for 2012. This contract was a bit excessive for a small-market team for a luxury such as a closer, especially when the Twins had cried poverty about the possibility of extending Johan. Overall, I can't complain with this move despite the injury in 2010. I hope Nathan is fully recovered for 2011.
7. May 29, 2008: Claimed Craig Breslow off waivers from the Cleveland Indians. This was a smart move. Breslow had an ERA+ of 149 and a brWAR of 1.1. That was a very nice pick-up from Bill Smith. Good job! I'm impressed!
8. August 25, 2008:Acquired pitcher Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Mark Hamburger; designated Mike Lamb for assignment and ultimately released him. I have a soft spot for Everyday Eddie, he's one of my favorites. I was glad to see him come back, nevertheless, Everyday Eddie pitched 9 games, 7 innings and had an ERA of 7.71 with an ERA+ of 57 and contributed -0.2 WAR. Mike Lamb was not doing very well, he had a slash line of .233/.276/.322 and an OPS+ of 61, his contribution was -0.1 WAR. As for Hamburger, he is a relief pitcher for the Texas Rangers' AA team. His WHIP is high but K/9 looks pretty decent.
Despite Smith's ineptitude, the Minnesota had to have a play-in game for the playoffs reaching game 163. If not for the series of moves, including trading Garza and Santana, the Twins would have been in the playoffs long before risking everything with one game.
This was not a good year for first-year GM Bill Smith.
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