"He extended Nathan, Morneau and Cuddy because if he hadn't, there would have straight up been a revolt. New stadium got finalized that year and were coming off losing Hunter (WAY overpaid) and Santana."
He chose to lose Santana. He could have had another year with him. There would not have been a revolt had Smith not extended Nathan, Morneau, and Cuddyer.
"and at the time, Cuddy and Nathan both would have received very similar deals on the open market, the only problem I have with those deals in the option year for Cuddy having to be picked up a year prior and not that year. And now both deals are coming off the books after this year."
Well, Nathan has a club option for 2012. So, no it's not coming off the books after this year. Nathan likely would have received a similar contract on the open market. Cuddyer is slightly overpaid, especially for this year.
"Crain and Guerrier would have cost more to keep in the long run than keeping Capps for just this year. Thats kind of a moot argument anyways, plus the belief is they need Capps this year just in case Nathan's recovery hits a snag while Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff and Crain is too inconsistent and gets mentally rocked, something you don't want from a closer. "
Keeping Capps this season and similar relief pitchers in subsequent seasons will likely cost more than keeping Guerrier and Crain for the three years. Regardless, Smith did not offer arbitration to Guerrier (a Type A free agent) or Jesse Crain (a Type B free agent) or even Brian Fuentes (a type B free agent). Simply offering arbitration to any of these players would have either a) kept them for one more year or b) netted them extra draft picks if/when they signed somewhere else. The Capps belief is dumb. There's no way around it. I don't know where you're getting that Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff as multiple sources last year said Guerrier should get first chance at the closer job (here) As for Crain, he wants to close, just google "Jesse Crain closer". He might end up being the closer on the White Sox. Fuentes used to be a closer and is signed for less money per season than Capps, albeit he is older. Fuentes could have easily been the closer insurance. It appears, Capps was the only option to be the insurance closer, probably because Smith gave up Wilson Ramos for him.
"Hardy is oft injured and costing $5m, Nishioka and Casilla are not injury prone, potential international stars (which is good for the team in every way), both play solid D at 2 positions, bring speed and combined cost less than Hardy (and I'm even a Hardy fan, that's a smart move)"
Nishioka is a potential international star, in the sense that he is from Japan. Much like Morneau is an international star for being from Canada. Crain should have been kept by that logic because he is from Toronto and is an international star. I'll just link you here. In case you didn't click, Nishioka's wikipedia page says he has established a reputation of being an injury-prone player. Casilla is a "perennial underachiever who has never played more than 100 games in a season." When healthy, Hardy was one of the best in the league at shortstop.
"With Hernandez, they needed a veteran pitcher which the team didn't have, he was relatively cheap and actually pitched fairly well for the team before it was time to bring up Franky, which COULDN'T have been done sooner because of arbitration reasons, Liriano almost filed a grievance because he was butt-hurt from it while at the same time the same thing happens all the time, Longoria, Strasburg, Gibson this year, it will happen to Harper, it will continue to happen and they won't file grievances"
They didn't have a veteran pitcher because Smith traded Santana and Garza. He pitched ok, nothing spectacular. Liriano wasn't brought up because he was recovering from an injury. Longoria and Strasburg never complained to the point of almost filing a grievance because the team is blatantly keeping the player down to control costs. It doesn't happen all the time. You're wrong, again.
"Trading away Ramos was more a necessity, he's a projected starter while Butera is a defensive specialist, when you need a backup, especially at catcher, Ill take the defensive specialist. Ramos' potentially allowed the Capps deal, which in turn, helped win the division last year. Even if they didn't trade Ramos, he would have walked at first opportunity, he has no spot on the team. "
I don't get this logic, how was it a necessity because he's a projected starter? Is it because we have a franchise catcher in Joe Mauer? Joe Mauer never misses a game. He hasn't had injury problems either. It makes absolutely no sense to keep a catcher who can hit on the roster. Ramos would have walked at first opportunity in 2016 or so, when he was elgible for free agency. It's not like having a cost controlled backup catcher would have helped the Twins, who are always whining about lack of money. Butera is a defensive specialist, awesome, I would rather have Ramos. The trade for Capps was unnecessary. Besides having other closer candidates, such as Guerrier and Crain, Rauch was doing a fine job as closer. Arguably, we would have won the division without making that trade.
Finally, moving on to a new commenter.
"The reason they got rid of Santana and Garza is because their farm system was, and still is, loaded with pitchers. They may trade Liriano or Slowey to make room for young talent... they Twins have been doing this for years... "
The reason they got rid of Santana was because he was leaving as a free agent and the Twins knew he wasn't going to re-sign with him. The reason they traded Garza was because he feuded with coaches (oh, that's just what another commenter said) and because they were trying to upgrade their offense. It's not really loaded with pitchers. Well, technically it is. It's not loaded with front-line starter talent. It definitely wasn't loaded at the time of the trade (probably the reason Smith got 3 pitchers for Santana besides dealing with one of the worst farm systems at the time). I don't know what to make of your last comment as trading Liriano and Slowey would be stupid. If they wanted a rotation spot for one of their young talents, they could have merely not re-signed Carl Pavano and saved some coin and given the spot up. If their rotation is loaded with pitching, then going after Pavano would have been unnecessary in the first place because they would have already had enough pitching. Trading away your best pitcher does not make any coherent sense from making the statement that the system is loaded with pitching and then signing a free agent pitcher.
Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts
Friday, March 4, 2011
ESPN Sweetspot Blog Network Post #2-Burning a Strawman
This is a continuation of my post yesterday. The Twins fans on the ESPN comments section have decided that Bill Smith is a good GM and are telling me that my comments are absurd. I will now burn a strawman.
"Lets start with Santana, who the Twins offered 4 yrs at $80m and he turned down.
I had forgotten that Santana turned down a 4 year/80 million dollar contract to re-sign. Damnit. I hate it when I'm wrong. So I'll admit to a mistake there.
"Santana had already made up his mind that he wanted out and wouldn't resign (largely in part of getting rid of Castillo), so Smith, in his first couple WEEKS on the job, had to make the choice of trading Santana or playing out the season and then letting him walk."
Well, Santana turned down the extension in Spring Training. It's not like they offered it at the end of the season and Agent Smith (Bill Smith, I feel like he should talk and act like this) was surprised and didn't know what to do. They knew the whole season that Johan wasn't going to re-sign, at that price. From the Star Tribune on October 2, 2007 "The Twins expressed interest in signing Santana and other top players to multiyear deals as far back as January, but ultimately, only Joe Mauer signed a long-term deal. Santana warned them at the time that market forces would drive up his price." The article continues "'Everything about the Twins, I love,' Santana said. "At the same time, if I have to go somewhere else, and it's for the better, I'll do it. I won't have any problems with that.'" Now obviously there was some displeasure from the Castillo trade. He took it to mean that the Twins were not going to offer the amount of money he was seeking and that playing for the Mets would be ok.
So at this point, the options were: Trade Johan or let him pitch the season and let him walk as a free agent.
The Twins decided that they were going to trade him. There were no other plans in place. When the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets were the only serious contenders, Smith did not back down. When the Yankees refused to part with some prospects, Smith did not back down. He eventually pulled the trigger to send him to the Mets in exchange for Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber. The prospects were ranked 2, 3, 4, and 7 on the Mets farm system ranking according to Baseball America. However, that system was pretty diluted. Baseball America wrote,"scouts from other organizations say the Mets have little immediate help on the way in the farm system." Continuing they wrote "The lack of talent in part reflects New York's decision not to wield its large-market resources to acquire talent in the last two years." This is found on page 286 of Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Deolis Guerra was 17 years old at the time and apparently the key in the deal. He had two above-average pitches but had yet to produce a 100 inning professional season. He had been projected by Baseball America, as the #4 starter on the 2011 pitching staff. Carlos Gomez was the #3 prospect in the Mets system, he was major-league ready except his lack of patience at the plate. The Twins were looking for a centerfielder because Torii Hunter had just departed as a free agent. Mulvey was ranked #4, take it away Baseball America. "His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts. Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily...He has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastball from his days at Villanova...He projects as a No.3 or 4 starter." Finally, there is Philip Humber. He got shelled in his one start at the Major League level in 2007. Baseball America says,"He now porjects as a back-of-the-rotation starter." Can't you feel the excitement? 3 back of the rotation starters and an outfielder who needs patience at the plate for the best pitcher in the American League?
Had he let Santana walk at the end of the year, Santana would have netted the Twins two draft picks, a probable first round pick and a supplemental first round pick. They would not have needed game 163 to decide who went to the playoffs.
"There were only a couple teams in the market for Santana, and Smith had just started the job. It's difficult to fault him as much as you do for that trade"
Yep, that is true. There were only a couple teams in the market. Once the Yankees bowed out, there was really only one team. Instead of simply cutting his losses at that point and tried to compete with Santana in the rotation, Smith decided to trade Santana for a below average group of prospects. The best course of action was to play out the season and net the draft picks. Instead, Smith was intent on trading Santana and it hurt him.
But despite all that, I'm willing to forgive. Carlos Gomez got us JJ Hardy, which was excellent. Smith traded Mulvey for Jon Rauch, which was another good trade. I don't fault Smith much for the trade, it was a bad decision, by trading those same prospects he admitted as much.
"Lets start with Santana, who the Twins offered 4 yrs at $80m and he turned down.
I had forgotten that Santana turned down a 4 year/80 million dollar contract to re-sign. Damnit. I hate it when I'm wrong. So I'll admit to a mistake there.
"Santana had already made up his mind that he wanted out and wouldn't resign (largely in part of getting rid of Castillo), so Smith, in his first couple WEEKS on the job, had to make the choice of trading Santana or playing out the season and then letting him walk."
Well, Santana turned down the extension in Spring Training. It's not like they offered it at the end of the season and Agent Smith (Bill Smith, I feel like he should talk and act like this) was surprised and didn't know what to do. They knew the whole season that Johan wasn't going to re-sign, at that price. From the Star Tribune on October 2, 2007 "The Twins expressed interest in signing Santana and other top players to multiyear deals as far back as January, but ultimately, only Joe Mauer signed a long-term deal. Santana warned them at the time that market forces would drive up his price." The article continues "'Everything about the Twins, I love,' Santana said. "At the same time, if I have to go somewhere else, and it's for the better, I'll do it. I won't have any problems with that.'" Now obviously there was some displeasure from the Castillo trade. He took it to mean that the Twins were not going to offer the amount of money he was seeking and that playing for the Mets would be ok.
So at this point, the options were: Trade Johan or let him pitch the season and let him walk as a free agent.
The Twins decided that they were going to trade him. There were no other plans in place. When the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets were the only serious contenders, Smith did not back down. When the Yankees refused to part with some prospects, Smith did not back down. He eventually pulled the trigger to send him to the Mets in exchange for Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber. The prospects were ranked 2, 3, 4, and 7 on the Mets farm system ranking according to Baseball America. However, that system was pretty diluted. Baseball America wrote,"scouts from other organizations say the Mets have little immediate help on the way in the farm system." Continuing they wrote "The lack of talent in part reflects New York's decision not to wield its large-market resources to acquire talent in the last two years." This is found on page 286 of Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Deolis Guerra was 17 years old at the time and apparently the key in the deal. He had two above-average pitches but had yet to produce a 100 inning professional season. He had been projected by Baseball America, as the #4 starter on the 2011 pitching staff. Carlos Gomez was the #3 prospect in the Mets system, he was major-league ready except his lack of patience at the plate. The Twins were looking for a centerfielder because Torii Hunter had just departed as a free agent. Mulvey was ranked #4, take it away Baseball America. "His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts. Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily...He has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastball from his days at Villanova...He projects as a No.3 or 4 starter." Finally, there is Philip Humber. He got shelled in his one start at the Major League level in 2007. Baseball America says,"He now porjects as a back-of-the-rotation starter." Can't you feel the excitement? 3 back of the rotation starters and an outfielder who needs patience at the plate for the best pitcher in the American League?
Had he let Santana walk at the end of the year, Santana would have netted the Twins two draft picks, a probable first round pick and a supplemental first round pick. They would not have needed game 163 to decide who went to the playoffs.
"There were only a couple teams in the market for Santana, and Smith had just started the job. It's difficult to fault him as much as you do for that trade"
Yep, that is true. There were only a couple teams in the market. Once the Yankees bowed out, there was really only one team. Instead of simply cutting his losses at that point and tried to compete with Santana in the rotation, Smith decided to trade Santana for a below average group of prospects. The best course of action was to play out the season and net the draft picks. Instead, Smith was intent on trading Santana and it hurt him.
But despite all that, I'm willing to forgive. Carlos Gomez got us JJ Hardy, which was excellent. Smith traded Mulvey for Jon Rauch, which was another good trade. I don't fault Smith much for the trade, it was a bad decision, by trading those same prospects he admitted as much.
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