With only a rudimentary level of understanding of how to properly evaluate players, I have decided that I can rank the 100 greatest players at each position in baseball history. Well, technically I am going to 250 on pitchers but 100 on every other position. To get the players, I took Bill James' list from The New Bill James Historical Abstract. I also added in players that were either not active for that book or did not have a long enough career to be in that book.
Notes about the rankings:
1. All active players are ranked based on their performances through the 2010 season.
2. All players are ranked solely on what they accomplished in their major league careers.
3. I did not project how the player would have done in the seasons that they were not able to play based on conditions that were beyond their control. I will, however, address those issues in each of the player's rankings.
Methodology: This is based on WAR, my apologies to those who do not believe that WAR is a good tool for evaluating players.
WAR is calculated by averaging the two between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, when available.
Each player receives 0.5 points for each season of 5-5.99 WAR, .0.75 for each season of 6-6.49, 1.0 for 6.5-6.99, 1.25 for 7-7.49, 1.5 for 7.5-7.99, 1.75 for 8-8.49, 2 for 8.5-8.99, 2.25 for 9-9.49, 2.5 for 9.5-9.99, 2.75 for 10-10.49, 3 for 10.5-10.99, 3.25 for 11-11.49, 3.50 for 11.50-11.99, and 3.75 for each season of 12+ WAR or higher.
(if you're asking why start at 5 WAR, it is largely to give extra points for those players who had all-star seasons, these typically start at 5 WAR)
These points are added to the formula: .20(Career WAR total)+.20(Average WAR per season)+.20(WAR for five consecutive seasons)+ .20(WAR for highest three seasons)+.20(WAR for highest ten seasons)
The resulting total from all this will give a number that I then ranked in order.
A score of 34 or higher is to be considered a hall of fame career, by me. This is because a player who produces a career of only ten 5 WAR seasons will be scored at 34. I am considering that a hall of famer. I'll explain more in the write-ups by position, but this is to give you a basic idea of how I am ranking them.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Friday, March 4, 2011
Matt Capps
The Twins have a relief pitcher on their team named Matt Capps. He is set to make 7.15 million dollars this year. Here are the other players on the Twins who make more money than him:
(numbers in millions)
Joe Mauer: $23
Justin Morneau: $14
Joe Nathan: $11.25
Michael Cuddyer: $10.5
Matt Capps will be the death of me as a Twins fan.
(numbers in millions)
Joe Mauer: $23
Justin Morneau: $14
Joe Nathan: $11.25
Michael Cuddyer: $10.5
Matt Capps will be the death of me as a Twins fan.
Burning the last of the strawmen
"He extended Nathan, Morneau and Cuddy because if he hadn't, there would have straight up been a revolt. New stadium got finalized that year and were coming off losing Hunter (WAY overpaid) and Santana."
He chose to lose Santana. He could have had another year with him. There would not have been a revolt had Smith not extended Nathan, Morneau, and Cuddyer.
"and at the time, Cuddy and Nathan both would have received very similar deals on the open market, the only problem I have with those deals in the option year for Cuddy having to be picked up a year prior and not that year. And now both deals are coming off the books after this year."
Well, Nathan has a club option for 2012. So, no it's not coming off the books after this year. Nathan likely would have received a similar contract on the open market. Cuddyer is slightly overpaid, especially for this year.
"Crain and Guerrier would have cost more to keep in the long run than keeping Capps for just this year. Thats kind of a moot argument anyways, plus the belief is they need Capps this year just in case Nathan's recovery hits a snag while Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff and Crain is too inconsistent and gets mentally rocked, something you don't want from a closer. "
Keeping Capps this season and similar relief pitchers in subsequent seasons will likely cost more than keeping Guerrier and Crain for the three years. Regardless, Smith did not offer arbitration to Guerrier (a Type A free agent) or Jesse Crain (a Type B free agent) or even Brian Fuentes (a type B free agent). Simply offering arbitration to any of these players would have either a) kept them for one more year or b) netted them extra draft picks if/when they signed somewhere else. The Capps belief is dumb. There's no way around it. I don't know where you're getting that Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff as multiple sources last year said Guerrier should get first chance at the closer job (here) As for Crain, he wants to close, just google "Jesse Crain closer". He might end up being the closer on the White Sox. Fuentes used to be a closer and is signed for less money per season than Capps, albeit he is older. Fuentes could have easily been the closer insurance. It appears, Capps was the only option to be the insurance closer, probably because Smith gave up Wilson Ramos for him.
"Hardy is oft injured and costing $5m, Nishioka and Casilla are not injury prone, potential international stars (which is good for the team in every way), both play solid D at 2 positions, bring speed and combined cost less than Hardy (and I'm even a Hardy fan, that's a smart move)"
Nishioka is a potential international star, in the sense that he is from Japan. Much like Morneau is an international star for being from Canada. Crain should have been kept by that logic because he is from Toronto and is an international star. I'll just link you here. In case you didn't click, Nishioka's wikipedia page says he has established a reputation of being an injury-prone player. Casilla is a "perennial underachiever who has never played more than 100 games in a season." When healthy, Hardy was one of the best in the league at shortstop.
"With Hernandez, they needed a veteran pitcher which the team didn't have, he was relatively cheap and actually pitched fairly well for the team before it was time to bring up Franky, which COULDN'T have been done sooner because of arbitration reasons, Liriano almost filed a grievance because he was butt-hurt from it while at the same time the same thing happens all the time, Longoria, Strasburg, Gibson this year, it will happen to Harper, it will continue to happen and they won't file grievances"
They didn't have a veteran pitcher because Smith traded Santana and Garza. He pitched ok, nothing spectacular. Liriano wasn't brought up because he was recovering from an injury. Longoria and Strasburg never complained to the point of almost filing a grievance because the team is blatantly keeping the player down to control costs. It doesn't happen all the time. You're wrong, again.
"Trading away Ramos was more a necessity, he's a projected starter while Butera is a defensive specialist, when you need a backup, especially at catcher, Ill take the defensive specialist. Ramos' potentially allowed the Capps deal, which in turn, helped win the division last year. Even if they didn't trade Ramos, he would have walked at first opportunity, he has no spot on the team. "
I don't get this logic, how was it a necessity because he's a projected starter? Is it because we have a franchise catcher in Joe Mauer? Joe Mauer never misses a game. He hasn't had injury problems either. It makes absolutely no sense to keep a catcher who can hit on the roster. Ramos would have walked at first opportunity in 2016 or so, when he was elgible for free agency. It's not like having a cost controlled backup catcher would have helped the Twins, who are always whining about lack of money. Butera is a defensive specialist, awesome, I would rather have Ramos. The trade for Capps was unnecessary. Besides having other closer candidates, such as Guerrier and Crain, Rauch was doing a fine job as closer. Arguably, we would have won the division without making that trade.
Finally, moving on to a new commenter.
"The reason they got rid of Santana and Garza is because their farm system was, and still is, loaded with pitchers. They may trade Liriano or Slowey to make room for young talent... they Twins have been doing this for years... "
The reason they got rid of Santana was because he was leaving as a free agent and the Twins knew he wasn't going to re-sign with him. The reason they traded Garza was because he feuded with coaches (oh, that's just what another commenter said) and because they were trying to upgrade their offense. It's not really loaded with pitchers. Well, technically it is. It's not loaded with front-line starter talent. It definitely wasn't loaded at the time of the trade (probably the reason Smith got 3 pitchers for Santana besides dealing with one of the worst farm systems at the time). I don't know what to make of your last comment as trading Liriano and Slowey would be stupid. If they wanted a rotation spot for one of their young talents, they could have merely not re-signed Carl Pavano and saved some coin and given the spot up. If their rotation is loaded with pitching, then going after Pavano would have been unnecessary in the first place because they would have already had enough pitching. Trading away your best pitcher does not make any coherent sense from making the statement that the system is loaded with pitching and then signing a free agent pitcher.
He chose to lose Santana. He could have had another year with him. There would not have been a revolt had Smith not extended Nathan, Morneau, and Cuddyer.
"and at the time, Cuddy and Nathan both would have received very similar deals on the open market, the only problem I have with those deals in the option year for Cuddy having to be picked up a year prior and not that year. And now both deals are coming off the books after this year."
Well, Nathan has a club option for 2012. So, no it's not coming off the books after this year. Nathan likely would have received a similar contract on the open market. Cuddyer is slightly overpaid, especially for this year.
"Crain and Guerrier would have cost more to keep in the long run than keeping Capps for just this year. Thats kind of a moot argument anyways, plus the belief is they need Capps this year just in case Nathan's recovery hits a snag while Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff and Crain is too inconsistent and gets mentally rocked, something you don't want from a closer. "
Keeping Capps this season and similar relief pitchers in subsequent seasons will likely cost more than keeping Guerrier and Crain for the three years. Regardless, Smith did not offer arbitration to Guerrier (a Type A free agent) or Jesse Crain (a Type B free agent) or even Brian Fuentes (a type B free agent). Simply offering arbitration to any of these players would have either a) kept them for one more year or b) netted them extra draft picks if/when they signed somewhere else. The Capps belief is dumb. There's no way around it. I don't know where you're getting that Guerrier doesn't have closer stuff as multiple sources last year said Guerrier should get first chance at the closer job (here) As for Crain, he wants to close, just google "Jesse Crain closer". He might end up being the closer on the White Sox. Fuentes used to be a closer and is signed for less money per season than Capps, albeit he is older. Fuentes could have easily been the closer insurance. It appears, Capps was the only option to be the insurance closer, probably because Smith gave up Wilson Ramos for him.
"Hardy is oft injured and costing $5m, Nishioka and Casilla are not injury prone, potential international stars (which is good for the team in every way), both play solid D at 2 positions, bring speed and combined cost less than Hardy (and I'm even a Hardy fan, that's a smart move)"
Nishioka is a potential international star, in the sense that he is from Japan. Much like Morneau is an international star for being from Canada. Crain should have been kept by that logic because he is from Toronto and is an international star. I'll just link you here. In case you didn't click, Nishioka's wikipedia page says he has established a reputation of being an injury-prone player. Casilla is a "perennial underachiever who has never played more than 100 games in a season." When healthy, Hardy was one of the best in the league at shortstop.
"With Hernandez, they needed a veteran pitcher which the team didn't have, he was relatively cheap and actually pitched fairly well for the team before it was time to bring up Franky, which COULDN'T have been done sooner because of arbitration reasons, Liriano almost filed a grievance because he was butt-hurt from it while at the same time the same thing happens all the time, Longoria, Strasburg, Gibson this year, it will happen to Harper, it will continue to happen and they won't file grievances"
They didn't have a veteran pitcher because Smith traded Santana and Garza. He pitched ok, nothing spectacular. Liriano wasn't brought up because he was recovering from an injury. Longoria and Strasburg never complained to the point of almost filing a grievance because the team is blatantly keeping the player down to control costs. It doesn't happen all the time. You're wrong, again.
"Trading away Ramos was more a necessity, he's a projected starter while Butera is a defensive specialist, when you need a backup, especially at catcher, Ill take the defensive specialist. Ramos' potentially allowed the Capps deal, which in turn, helped win the division last year. Even if they didn't trade Ramos, he would have walked at first opportunity, he has no spot on the team. "
I don't get this logic, how was it a necessity because he's a projected starter? Is it because we have a franchise catcher in Joe Mauer? Joe Mauer never misses a game. He hasn't had injury problems either. It makes absolutely no sense to keep a catcher who can hit on the roster. Ramos would have walked at first opportunity in 2016 or so, when he was elgible for free agency. It's not like having a cost controlled backup catcher would have helped the Twins, who are always whining about lack of money. Butera is a defensive specialist, awesome, I would rather have Ramos. The trade for Capps was unnecessary. Besides having other closer candidates, such as Guerrier and Crain, Rauch was doing a fine job as closer. Arguably, we would have won the division without making that trade.
Finally, moving on to a new commenter.
"The reason they got rid of Santana and Garza is because their farm system was, and still is, loaded with pitchers. They may trade Liriano or Slowey to make room for young talent... they Twins have been doing this for years... "
The reason they got rid of Santana was because he was leaving as a free agent and the Twins knew he wasn't going to re-sign with him. The reason they traded Garza was because he feuded with coaches (oh, that's just what another commenter said) and because they were trying to upgrade their offense. It's not really loaded with pitchers. Well, technically it is. It's not loaded with front-line starter talent. It definitely wasn't loaded at the time of the trade (probably the reason Smith got 3 pitchers for Santana besides dealing with one of the worst farm systems at the time). I don't know what to make of your last comment as trading Liriano and Slowey would be stupid. If they wanted a rotation spot for one of their young talents, they could have merely not re-signed Carl Pavano and saved some coin and given the spot up. If their rotation is loaded with pitching, then going after Pavano would have been unnecessary in the first place because they would have already had enough pitching. Trading away your best pitcher does not make any coherent sense from making the statement that the system is loaded with pitching and then signing a free agent pitcher.
Burning more strawmen
"Garza basically REFUSED to listen to his coaches in MN and was constantly at ends with them, that goes against everything the Twins believe in. There's wasn't a spot on the team for a guy like that, so he made the trade for Young, swapping first rounders."
According to this, Garza was traded because of character problems. I don't remember him fighting with coaches. After googling Garza and fighting, for about 5 minutes, I couldn't find anything. There was an interview conducted by Jonah Keri which he mentions character issues with Garza, so perhaps, that's what you're talking about. However, apparently there was a spot on the Twins for a player who threw his baseball bat at an umpire. He said that he didn't intend to hit the umpire with his bat (I presume he was throwing it in frustration). He was suspended 50 games, no big deal. It's not like he fought with his coaches, that's terrible. That's all fine and good, Garza for Young, fine that's the deal. Oh wait, Bartlett was traded, too? And the Rays threw in Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie? It looks like the Rays are winning that one.
"Young is not nearly as terrible as you make him out to be, he broke out last year, lost weight, and will continue to get better, oh and he's 24 with what, 4 years of experience already? Bartlett couldn't stay healthy and Garza has continued to be a headache, but a good player, ill give him that."
Again, I haven't read much about Garza's character issues beyond fighting with Dioneer Navarro. Bartlett couldn't stay healthy? Well, in the three years post-trade, Young played in 20 more games than Bartlett, so not a knock-down argument.
Young is pretty terrible, I am not a fan. In his career, according to baseballreference he has produced -1.0 WAR. His best season, at 0.8 WAR was better than Bartlett's worse (0.3). In 2009, Bartlett put up a WAR of 5.0. Something Young hasn't even come close to. In fact he hasn't cleared the mark of 1.0 brWAR, in any one season for his career. Beyond that, Young has played 4 years and he hasn't really improved his OBP yet. At a certain point, when do we consider that he's not going to get better but he is what he is? He has nearly 2500 PA, his walk rate has gotten marginally better as well as K rate and his K:BB ratio again marginally improved. Most likely, by the time he realizes his potential he'll be long gone from the Twins, since he hits free agency in 2013.
Again, both Bartlett and Garza outproduced Delmon Young, even in their worst seasons.
I will bet that Young clears the 1.0 WAR mark for the first time this year, but both Bartlett and Garza have better seasons.
According to this, Garza was traded because of character problems. I don't remember him fighting with coaches. After googling Garza and fighting, for about 5 minutes, I couldn't find anything. There was an interview conducted by Jonah Keri which he mentions character issues with Garza, so perhaps, that's what you're talking about. However, apparently there was a spot on the Twins for a player who threw his baseball bat at an umpire. He said that he didn't intend to hit the umpire with his bat (I presume he was throwing it in frustration). He was suspended 50 games, no big deal. It's not like he fought with his coaches, that's terrible. That's all fine and good, Garza for Young, fine that's the deal. Oh wait, Bartlett was traded, too? And the Rays threw in Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie? It looks like the Rays are winning that one.
"Young is not nearly as terrible as you make him out to be, he broke out last year, lost weight, and will continue to get better, oh and he's 24 with what, 4 years of experience already? Bartlett couldn't stay healthy and Garza has continued to be a headache, but a good player, ill give him that."
Again, I haven't read much about Garza's character issues beyond fighting with Dioneer Navarro. Bartlett couldn't stay healthy? Well, in the three years post-trade, Young played in 20 more games than Bartlett, so not a knock-down argument.
Young is pretty terrible, I am not a fan. In his career, according to baseballreference he has produced -1.0 WAR. His best season, at 0.8 WAR was better than Bartlett's worse (0.3). In 2009, Bartlett put up a WAR of 5.0. Something Young hasn't even come close to. In fact he hasn't cleared the mark of 1.0 brWAR, in any one season for his career. Beyond that, Young has played 4 years and he hasn't really improved his OBP yet. At a certain point, when do we consider that he's not going to get better but he is what he is? He has nearly 2500 PA, his walk rate has gotten marginally better as well as K rate and his K:BB ratio again marginally improved. Most likely, by the time he realizes his potential he'll be long gone from the Twins, since he hits free agency in 2013.
Again, both Bartlett and Garza outproduced Delmon Young, even in their worst seasons.
I will bet that Young clears the 1.0 WAR mark for the first time this year, but both Bartlett and Garza have better seasons.
ESPN Sweetspot Blog Network Post #2-Burning a Strawman
This is a continuation of my post yesterday. The Twins fans on the ESPN comments section have decided that Bill Smith is a good GM and are telling me that my comments are absurd. I will now burn a strawman.
"Lets start with Santana, who the Twins offered 4 yrs at $80m and he turned down.
I had forgotten that Santana turned down a 4 year/80 million dollar contract to re-sign. Damnit. I hate it when I'm wrong. So I'll admit to a mistake there.
"Santana had already made up his mind that he wanted out and wouldn't resign (largely in part of getting rid of Castillo), so Smith, in his first couple WEEKS on the job, had to make the choice of trading Santana or playing out the season and then letting him walk."
Well, Santana turned down the extension in Spring Training. It's not like they offered it at the end of the season and Agent Smith (Bill Smith, I feel like he should talk and act like this) was surprised and didn't know what to do. They knew the whole season that Johan wasn't going to re-sign, at that price. From the Star Tribune on October 2, 2007 "The Twins expressed interest in signing Santana and other top players to multiyear deals as far back as January, but ultimately, only Joe Mauer signed a long-term deal. Santana warned them at the time that market forces would drive up his price." The article continues "'Everything about the Twins, I love,' Santana said. "At the same time, if I have to go somewhere else, and it's for the better, I'll do it. I won't have any problems with that.'" Now obviously there was some displeasure from the Castillo trade. He took it to mean that the Twins were not going to offer the amount of money he was seeking and that playing for the Mets would be ok.
So at this point, the options were: Trade Johan or let him pitch the season and let him walk as a free agent.
The Twins decided that they were going to trade him. There were no other plans in place. When the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets were the only serious contenders, Smith did not back down. When the Yankees refused to part with some prospects, Smith did not back down. He eventually pulled the trigger to send him to the Mets in exchange for Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber. The prospects were ranked 2, 3, 4, and 7 on the Mets farm system ranking according to Baseball America. However, that system was pretty diluted. Baseball America wrote,"scouts from other organizations say the Mets have little immediate help on the way in the farm system." Continuing they wrote "The lack of talent in part reflects New York's decision not to wield its large-market resources to acquire talent in the last two years." This is found on page 286 of Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Deolis Guerra was 17 years old at the time and apparently the key in the deal. He had two above-average pitches but had yet to produce a 100 inning professional season. He had been projected by Baseball America, as the #4 starter on the 2011 pitching staff. Carlos Gomez was the #3 prospect in the Mets system, he was major-league ready except his lack of patience at the plate. The Twins were looking for a centerfielder because Torii Hunter had just departed as a free agent. Mulvey was ranked #4, take it away Baseball America. "His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts. Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily...He has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastball from his days at Villanova...He projects as a No.3 or 4 starter." Finally, there is Philip Humber. He got shelled in his one start at the Major League level in 2007. Baseball America says,"He now porjects as a back-of-the-rotation starter." Can't you feel the excitement? 3 back of the rotation starters and an outfielder who needs patience at the plate for the best pitcher in the American League?
Had he let Santana walk at the end of the year, Santana would have netted the Twins two draft picks, a probable first round pick and a supplemental first round pick. They would not have needed game 163 to decide who went to the playoffs.
"There were only a couple teams in the market for Santana, and Smith had just started the job. It's difficult to fault him as much as you do for that trade"
Yep, that is true. There were only a couple teams in the market. Once the Yankees bowed out, there was really only one team. Instead of simply cutting his losses at that point and tried to compete with Santana in the rotation, Smith decided to trade Santana for a below average group of prospects. The best course of action was to play out the season and net the draft picks. Instead, Smith was intent on trading Santana and it hurt him.
But despite all that, I'm willing to forgive. Carlos Gomez got us JJ Hardy, which was excellent. Smith traded Mulvey for Jon Rauch, which was another good trade. I don't fault Smith much for the trade, it was a bad decision, by trading those same prospects he admitted as much.
"Lets start with Santana, who the Twins offered 4 yrs at $80m and he turned down.
I had forgotten that Santana turned down a 4 year/80 million dollar contract to re-sign. Damnit. I hate it when I'm wrong. So I'll admit to a mistake there.
"Santana had already made up his mind that he wanted out and wouldn't resign (largely in part of getting rid of Castillo), so Smith, in his first couple WEEKS on the job, had to make the choice of trading Santana or playing out the season and then letting him walk."
Well, Santana turned down the extension in Spring Training. It's not like they offered it at the end of the season and Agent Smith (Bill Smith, I feel like he should talk and act like this) was surprised and didn't know what to do. They knew the whole season that Johan wasn't going to re-sign, at that price. From the Star Tribune on October 2, 2007 "The Twins expressed interest in signing Santana and other top players to multiyear deals as far back as January, but ultimately, only Joe Mauer signed a long-term deal. Santana warned them at the time that market forces would drive up his price." The article continues "'Everything about the Twins, I love,' Santana said. "At the same time, if I have to go somewhere else, and it's for the better, I'll do it. I won't have any problems with that.'" Now obviously there was some displeasure from the Castillo trade. He took it to mean that the Twins were not going to offer the amount of money he was seeking and that playing for the Mets would be ok.
So at this point, the options were: Trade Johan or let him pitch the season and let him walk as a free agent.
The Twins decided that they were going to trade him. There were no other plans in place. When the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets were the only serious contenders, Smith did not back down. When the Yankees refused to part with some prospects, Smith did not back down. He eventually pulled the trigger to send him to the Mets in exchange for Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber. The prospects were ranked 2, 3, 4, and 7 on the Mets farm system ranking according to Baseball America. However, that system was pretty diluted. Baseball America wrote,"scouts from other organizations say the Mets have little immediate help on the way in the farm system." Continuing they wrote "The lack of talent in part reflects New York's decision not to wield its large-market resources to acquire talent in the last two years." This is found on page 286 of Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook. Deolis Guerra was 17 years old at the time and apparently the key in the deal. He had two above-average pitches but had yet to produce a 100 inning professional season. He had been projected by Baseball America, as the #4 starter on the 2011 pitching staff. Carlos Gomez was the #3 prospect in the Mets system, he was major-league ready except his lack of patience at the plate. The Twins were looking for a centerfielder because Torii Hunter had just departed as a free agent. Mulvey was ranked #4, take it away Baseball America. "His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts. Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily...He has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastball from his days at Villanova...He projects as a No.3 or 4 starter." Finally, there is Philip Humber. He got shelled in his one start at the Major League level in 2007. Baseball America says,"He now porjects as a back-of-the-rotation starter." Can't you feel the excitement? 3 back of the rotation starters and an outfielder who needs patience at the plate for the best pitcher in the American League?
Had he let Santana walk at the end of the year, Santana would have netted the Twins two draft picks, a probable first round pick and a supplemental first round pick. They would not have needed game 163 to decide who went to the playoffs.
"There were only a couple teams in the market for Santana, and Smith had just started the job. It's difficult to fault him as much as you do for that trade"
Yep, that is true. There were only a couple teams in the market. Once the Yankees bowed out, there was really only one team. Instead of simply cutting his losses at that point and tried to compete with Santana in the rotation, Smith decided to trade Santana for a below average group of prospects. The best course of action was to play out the season and net the draft picks. Instead, Smith was intent on trading Santana and it hurt him.
But despite all that, I'm willing to forgive. Carlos Gomez got us JJ Hardy, which was excellent. Smith traded Mulvey for Jon Rauch, which was another good trade. I don't fault Smith much for the trade, it was a bad decision, by trading those same prospects he admitted as much.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
The Hall of Fame part 2
I discussed Bagwell's Hall of Fame candidacy mainly by discussing WAR. I'll admit I was very brief about his qualifications not using WAR, so I'll discuss it a bit longer here.
I'll start with this, this is just Bagwell's baseball reference page but it tells an interesting story. An average season from Bagwell would have produced a slash line of .297/.408/.540 with 34 homeruns 115 RBI's, 114 runs, 37 doubles, and two triples. It's actually a good season, a very good season.
What is a Hall of Fame season? That's the question that is centered around the Bagwell debate. Typically an OPS+ of 150 or higher is excellent, an OPS+ of 125 is very good, an OPS+ of 100 is league average and an OPS+ is poor. With that in mind, Bagwell had 6 seasons of an excellent OPS+, 7 seasons that would be defined as very good to excellent, one season that would be described as average to very good, and one season that is below average to terrible. An OPS+ of 155 for a career would be top 25 all-time, he got higher than that mark 5 times. His career mark is 37th all-time.
Let's set some arbitrary cut-off marks. The batting average line is .300, which is usually considered the mark of a good hitter. Bagwell batted above .300 a total of 6 times with a high of .368. Top 25 of all-time in batting average for a career is a .334, Bagwell got above that mark 1 time. His career batting average is 251st of all-time.
The OBP mark, I'm setting as a cut-off would be .400, he got above that mark 7 times. A .415 OBP would be #25 all-time for a career, Bagwell got above that mark 6 times. His career OBP makes him 40th best of all-time.
The arbitrary slugging percentage mark, I'm setting is at .500. Bagwell got above that mark 10 times. A .555 slugging percentage for a career is 25th best all-time, Bagwell got above that mark 7 times. His career mark is 35th all-time.
The reason I like WAR is that it helps to answer the question of what a season is actually worth while trying to be fair to all positions. I have a hard time deciding for myself what a Hall of Fame season is or even an All-Star season comparing Bagwell to Omar Vizquel.
That's why I use WAR. I'll try to explain better in subsequent posts, but it's not always guaranteed.
I'll start with this, this is just Bagwell's baseball reference page but it tells an interesting story. An average season from Bagwell would have produced a slash line of .297/.408/.540 with 34 homeruns 115 RBI's, 114 runs, 37 doubles, and two triples. It's actually a good season, a very good season.
What is a Hall of Fame season? That's the question that is centered around the Bagwell debate. Typically an OPS+ of 150 or higher is excellent, an OPS+ of 125 is very good, an OPS+ of 100 is league average and an OPS+ is poor. With that in mind, Bagwell had 6 seasons of an excellent OPS+, 7 seasons that would be defined as very good to excellent, one season that would be described as average to very good, and one season that is below average to terrible. An OPS+ of 155 for a career would be top 25 all-time, he got higher than that mark 5 times. His career mark is 37th all-time.
Let's set some arbitrary cut-off marks. The batting average line is .300, which is usually considered the mark of a good hitter. Bagwell batted above .300 a total of 6 times with a high of .368. Top 25 of all-time in batting average for a career is a .334, Bagwell got above that mark 1 time. His career batting average is 251st of all-time.
The OBP mark, I'm setting as a cut-off would be .400, he got above that mark 7 times. A .415 OBP would be #25 all-time for a career, Bagwell got above that mark 6 times. His career OBP makes him 40th best of all-time.
The arbitrary slugging percentage mark, I'm setting is at .500. Bagwell got above that mark 10 times. A .555 slugging percentage for a career is 25th best all-time, Bagwell got above that mark 7 times. His career mark is 35th all-time.
The reason I like WAR is that it helps to answer the question of what a season is actually worth while trying to be fair to all positions. I have a hard time deciding for myself what a Hall of Fame season is or even an All-Star season comparing Bagwell to Omar Vizquel.
That's why I use WAR. I'll try to explain better in subsequent posts, but it's not always guaranteed.
Bill Smith Minnesota Twins GM Part 1
This is Part 1 of the analysis of the Bill Smith era. He took over as GM on September 13, 2007. All moves since then have been under his watch , obviously.
This will just be the moves made from September 13, 2007 until the end of the regular season of 2008.
1. October 29, 2007: Exercised option on Joe Nathan for the 2008 season- Great move. Joe Nathan made six million dollars in 2008. He had an ERA+ of 316, just amazing. His ERA+ the previous year was only 229. His brWAR was 3.2, he was pretty good that year.
2. November 13, 2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later or cash, I guess. I can't find any information about who this player to be named later was. However, Monroe did not last very long. He had an 81 OPS+ with a slash line of .202/.274/.405 in 2008, he was released on August 8, 2008. In 2007, he only had an OPS+ of 64 with an overall slash line of .219/.268/.370. This was a classic buy low scenario as the previous three years he had an OPS+ of 99, 104, 116. So, a no-risk move intended to end with a reward.
3. November 28, 2007: Acquired outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris from the Tampa Bay Rays for infielder Jason Bartlett and pitchers Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan. This one is quite hard to fathom. I was kind of excited at the time to see Young in a Twins uniform if only so he could throw a bat at an umpire from the dugout. Despite his off-field problems, Young was considered a star in the making. Pridie was a prospect of some sort, at least he was supposed to be a major league ready centerfielder (since Torii Hunter was about to hit free agency). Brendan Harris had been a prospect for numerous teams but had never quite stuck in MLB. Garza had pitched a total of 133 innings in the majors and in 2007 had posted an ERA of 3.69 and an ERA+ of 117. Bartlett had finished four seasons in the majors, he was mainly regarded as a good-field/no-hit shortstop. He was providing some value, though. As for Eduardo Morlan, he is a pitcher who hasn't made it past AA and is a relief pitcher who has a decent K/9 but a bad BB/9.
Since the trade: Delmon Young has netted a total of 0.3 brWAR (-0.2, -0.3, and 0.8) in three years. Harris contributed a total of -0.2 brWAR (1, -0.4, -0.8), Pridie had seven plate appearances and was claimed on waivers by both New York Teams.
The Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Garza netted 9.0 brWAR (3.2, 3.8, 2.0) in three years. Bartlett netted 6.8 brWAR (0.3, 5.0, 1.5) in three years. Morlan did not appear in the Majors. Overall, Smith and the Twins got fleeced in the trade unless Young develops some plate discipline and turns around his career.
4. February 2, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
With Santana just a year away from free agency, the Twins were forced to believe that they would have to trade him in order to get any value for him. However, he would have netted them a first round pick and a supplemental first round draft pick had he just left in free agency, but regardless. They shopped Santana around to find a suitable package, there were rumors from both the Red Sox and Yankees. Speculation since then has indicated that the Red Sox may have been bluffing to force the Yankees to overbid. Instead, Smith took the Mets package. Guerra, Gomez, Humber, and Mulvey were not even the Mets best prospects that year, according to Baseball America.
In 2008, Santana's brWAR was 6.4. All value past 2008, would not have been with the Twins so I won't even include it. Keep in mind that that Smith had just traded young starter Matt Garza, earlier in the offseason too.
The package after the trade: Philip Humber 20.2 innings in 2008-2009 before he was granted free agency. His brWAR for the two seasons was -0.2. Carlos Gomez was an ok outfield prospect. He had problems with plate discipline, even as a prospect, and made up for it with his speed. He played two seasons for the Twins before getting traded for J.J. Hardy, his brWAR was 3 (2.1, 0.9). Mulvey pitched 1.1 innings in the majors for the Twins before eventually getting traded for Jon Rauch. Guerra is still a pitching prospect and has not really learned how to pitch with his stuff as both his ERA and FIP are pretty high in the minors. Marc Hulet from fangraphs has an article on this trade, here. Interestingly enough, according to the list of transactions on ESPN's Twins site, this trade never happened
5. February 12, 2008:Signed Livan Hernandez to a one year contract. After realizing that he traded away a young starter in Garza and his staff ace in Santana, Smith thought it would be a good idea to sign a pitcher for their rotation. He opted for Livan Hernandez. In 2007, Livan had an ERA+ of 96, slightly below average and a brWAR of 1.5. He was not a terrible choice for the rotation, however, Santana and Garza were much better. In 2008, Livan had a negative brWAR of -0.4 and an ERA+ of 77 and was on waivers when the Rockies selected him.
6. March 25, 2008: Agreed to a three year extension with Joe Nathan with a club option for 2012. This contract was a bit excessive for a small-market team for a luxury such as a closer, especially when the Twins had cried poverty about the possibility of extending Johan. Overall, I can't complain with this move despite the injury in 2010. I hope Nathan is fully recovered for 2011.
7. May 29, 2008: Claimed Craig Breslow off waivers from the Cleveland Indians. This was a smart move. Breslow had an ERA+ of 149 and a brWAR of 1.1. That was a very nice pick-up from Bill Smith. Good job! I'm impressed!
8. August 25, 2008:Acquired pitcher Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Mark Hamburger; designated Mike Lamb for assignment and ultimately released him. I have a soft spot for Everyday Eddie, he's one of my favorites. I was glad to see him come back, nevertheless, Everyday Eddie pitched 9 games, 7 innings and had an ERA of 7.71 with an ERA+ of 57 and contributed -0.2 WAR. Mike Lamb was not doing very well, he had a slash line of .233/.276/.322 and an OPS+ of 61, his contribution was -0.1 WAR. As for Hamburger, he is a relief pitcher for the Texas Rangers' AA team. His WHIP is high but K/9 looks pretty decent.
Despite Smith's ineptitude, the Minnesota had to have a play-in game for the playoffs reaching game 163. If not for the series of moves, including trading Garza and Santana, the Twins would have been in the playoffs long before risking everything with one game.
This was not a good year for first-year GM Bill Smith.
This will just be the moves made from September 13, 2007 until the end of the regular season of 2008.
1. October 29, 2007: Exercised option on Joe Nathan for the 2008 season- Great move. Joe Nathan made six million dollars in 2008. He had an ERA+ of 316, just amazing. His ERA+ the previous year was only 229. His brWAR was 3.2, he was pretty good that year.
2. November 13, 2007: Acquired Craig Monroe from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later or cash, I guess. I can't find any information about who this player to be named later was. However, Monroe did not last very long. He had an 81 OPS+ with a slash line of .202/.274/.405 in 2008, he was released on August 8, 2008. In 2007, he only had an OPS+ of 64 with an overall slash line of .219/.268/.370. This was a classic buy low scenario as the previous three years he had an OPS+ of 99, 104, 116. So, a no-risk move intended to end with a reward.
3. November 28, 2007: Acquired outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris from the Tampa Bay Rays for infielder Jason Bartlett and pitchers Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan. This one is quite hard to fathom. I was kind of excited at the time to see Young in a Twins uniform if only so he could throw a bat at an umpire from the dugout. Despite his off-field problems, Young was considered a star in the making. Pridie was a prospect of some sort, at least he was supposed to be a major league ready centerfielder (since Torii Hunter was about to hit free agency). Brendan Harris had been a prospect for numerous teams but had never quite stuck in MLB. Garza had pitched a total of 133 innings in the majors and in 2007 had posted an ERA of 3.69 and an ERA+ of 117. Bartlett had finished four seasons in the majors, he was mainly regarded as a good-field/no-hit shortstop. He was providing some value, though. As for Eduardo Morlan, he is a pitcher who hasn't made it past AA and is a relief pitcher who has a decent K/9 but a bad BB/9.
Since the trade: Delmon Young has netted a total of 0.3 brWAR (-0.2, -0.3, and 0.8) in three years. Harris contributed a total of -0.2 brWAR (1, -0.4, -0.8), Pridie had seven plate appearances and was claimed on waivers by both New York Teams.
The Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Garza netted 9.0 brWAR (3.2, 3.8, 2.0) in three years. Bartlett netted 6.8 brWAR (0.3, 5.0, 1.5) in three years. Morlan did not appear in the Majors. Overall, Smith and the Twins got fleeced in the trade unless Young develops some plate discipline and turns around his career.
4. February 2, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
With Santana just a year away from free agency, the Twins were forced to believe that they would have to trade him in order to get any value for him. However, he would have netted them a first round pick and a supplemental first round draft pick had he just left in free agency, but regardless. They shopped Santana around to find a suitable package, there were rumors from both the Red Sox and Yankees. Speculation since then has indicated that the Red Sox may have been bluffing to force the Yankees to overbid. Instead, Smith took the Mets package. Guerra, Gomez, Humber, and Mulvey were not even the Mets best prospects that year, according to Baseball America.
In 2008, Santana's brWAR was 6.4. All value past 2008, would not have been with the Twins so I won't even include it. Keep in mind that that Smith had just traded young starter Matt Garza, earlier in the offseason too.
The package after the trade: Philip Humber 20.2 innings in 2008-2009 before he was granted free agency. His brWAR for the two seasons was -0.2. Carlos Gomez was an ok outfield prospect. He had problems with plate discipline, even as a prospect, and made up for it with his speed. He played two seasons for the Twins before getting traded for J.J. Hardy, his brWAR was 3 (2.1, 0.9). Mulvey pitched 1.1 innings in the majors for the Twins before eventually getting traded for Jon Rauch. Guerra is still a pitching prospect and has not really learned how to pitch with his stuff as both his ERA and FIP are pretty high in the minors. Marc Hulet from fangraphs has an article on this trade, here. Interestingly enough, according to the list of transactions on ESPN's Twins site, this trade never happened
5. February 12, 2008:Signed Livan Hernandez to a one year contract. After realizing that he traded away a young starter in Garza and his staff ace in Santana, Smith thought it would be a good idea to sign a pitcher for their rotation. He opted for Livan Hernandez. In 2007, Livan had an ERA+ of 96, slightly below average and a brWAR of 1.5. He was not a terrible choice for the rotation, however, Santana and Garza were much better. In 2008, Livan had a negative brWAR of -0.4 and an ERA+ of 77 and was on waivers when the Rockies selected him.
6. March 25, 2008: Agreed to a three year extension with Joe Nathan with a club option for 2012. This contract was a bit excessive for a small-market team for a luxury such as a closer, especially when the Twins had cried poverty about the possibility of extending Johan. Overall, I can't complain with this move despite the injury in 2010. I hope Nathan is fully recovered for 2011.
7. May 29, 2008: Claimed Craig Breslow off waivers from the Cleveland Indians. This was a smart move. Breslow had an ERA+ of 149 and a brWAR of 1.1. That was a very nice pick-up from Bill Smith. Good job! I'm impressed!
8. August 25, 2008:Acquired pitcher Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Mark Hamburger; designated Mike Lamb for assignment and ultimately released him. I have a soft spot for Everyday Eddie, he's one of my favorites. I was glad to see him come back, nevertheless, Everyday Eddie pitched 9 games, 7 innings and had an ERA of 7.71 with an ERA+ of 57 and contributed -0.2 WAR. Mike Lamb was not doing very well, he had a slash line of .233/.276/.322 and an OPS+ of 61, his contribution was -0.1 WAR. As for Hamburger, he is a relief pitcher for the Texas Rangers' AA team. His WHIP is high but K/9 looks pretty decent.
Despite Smith's ineptitude, the Minnesota had to have a play-in game for the playoffs reaching game 163. If not for the series of moves, including trading Garza and Santana, the Twins would have been in the playoffs long before risking everything with one game.
This was not a good year for first-year GM Bill Smith.
ESPN's Sweetspot Network Post#1
This is more or less in regards to this post written by the Bill and the Common Man from the Platoon Advantage: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7491/al-central-ranking-organizational-leadership
After perusing the comments, I am wrathofcrain on the comments section, I seem to notice most Twins fans griping that both Gardenhire and Bill Smith are ranked so low when they win the division every year. Is this criticism justified? Are both Gardenhire and Smith really worse than the other candidates? There's not really any research one can partake in to see the effectiveness of a manager but as a Twins fan, I can guarantee you that Gardenhire is not the best manager in the American League, despite his American League Manager of the Year award just as Andre Dawson was not the Most Valuable Player in 1987.
I am a Twins fan and if you read this blog throughout the season, you will more than likely notice that I am incredibly critical of my team. However, Bill Smith had an incredibly terrible 2010-2011.
The Platoon Advantage, which is a blog that after reading it, I've discovered I'm a big fan of, I'm glad Rob Neyer introduced the Platoon Advantage to me, rated their off-season at 27 out of 30th. Understandably, this was before the Twins got Thome back, but still just a bad off-season. Let's take a look at what happened.
The Twins lost Jesse Crain (the reason for my user name is no longer on my team), Brian Fuentes (who pitched brilliantly for his 9.2 innings), Matt Guerrier (131 ERA+ last year and 129 ERA+ for his career), Orlando Hudson (the steal of the off-season previously, but contributed a 2.0 WAR and subjectively my third favorite Twin last year), Nick Punto (who I have a small hatred for, but for the pennies he's getting paid this year, could we have not kept him?), Jon Rauch, Brendan Harris, JJ Hardy, and Jose Morales.
I am alright with losing two of those players in the last four, almost ok with losing another player, and downright upset with losing one of those players. I'll let you decide which player is which.
Instead Smith, in his infinite wisdom, brought back Capps, who was expensive, considering they probably could have had both Crain and Guerrier for that price. He decidied that trading Hardy for two middling, excuse me, middle relief pitching prospects, was a good course of action and in doing so, decided that Alexei Casilla would be an effective everyday shortstop.
Beyond this off-season, he decidedly lost the Santana trade, lost the Bartlett and Garza trade (Delmon Young will forever be linked in my mind to those players in that trade), extended Nathan and Cuddyer, gave up Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, etc.
He has also made some terrific moves including signing Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson on the cheap before the 2010 season.
Bill Smith is not a good general manager, based on his decisions, regardless of what the standings over the last few years have said. He became general manager in the 2007 season just in time for the 2007 off-season and before the 2008 season. So I will look at the moves that he has made as a GM in subsequent post. I would love to be proven wrong on my statement that he is not a good general manager, but the facts will be laid out and I'll come to an ultimate decision.
After perusing the comments, I am wrathofcrain on the comments section, I seem to notice most Twins fans griping that both Gardenhire and Bill Smith are ranked so low when they win the division every year. Is this criticism justified? Are both Gardenhire and Smith really worse than the other candidates? There's not really any research one can partake in to see the effectiveness of a manager but as a Twins fan, I can guarantee you that Gardenhire is not the best manager in the American League, despite his American League Manager of the Year award just as Andre Dawson was not the Most Valuable Player in 1987.
I am a Twins fan and if you read this blog throughout the season, you will more than likely notice that I am incredibly critical of my team. However, Bill Smith had an incredibly terrible 2010-2011.
The Platoon Advantage, which is a blog that after reading it, I've discovered I'm a big fan of, I'm glad Rob Neyer introduced the Platoon Advantage to me, rated their off-season at 27 out of 30th. Understandably, this was before the Twins got Thome back, but still just a bad off-season. Let's take a look at what happened.
The Twins lost Jesse Crain (the reason for my user name is no longer on my team), Brian Fuentes (who pitched brilliantly for his 9.2 innings), Matt Guerrier (131 ERA+ last year and 129 ERA+ for his career), Orlando Hudson (the steal of the off-season previously, but contributed a 2.0 WAR and subjectively my third favorite Twin last year), Nick Punto (who I have a small hatred for, but for the pennies he's getting paid this year, could we have not kept him?), Jon Rauch, Brendan Harris, JJ Hardy, and Jose Morales.
I am alright with losing two of those players in the last four, almost ok with losing another player, and downright upset with losing one of those players. I'll let you decide which player is which.
Instead Smith, in his infinite wisdom, brought back Capps, who was expensive, considering they probably could have had both Crain and Guerrier for that price. He decidied that trading Hardy for two middling, excuse me, middle relief pitching prospects, was a good course of action and in doing so, decided that Alexei Casilla would be an effective everyday shortstop.
Beyond this off-season, he decidedly lost the Santana trade, lost the Bartlett and Garza trade (Delmon Young will forever be linked in my mind to those players in that trade), extended Nathan and Cuddyer, gave up Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, etc.
He has also made some terrific moves including signing Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson on the cheap before the 2010 season.
Bill Smith is not a good general manager, based on his decisions, regardless of what the standings over the last few years have said. He became general manager in the 2007 season just in time for the 2007 off-season and before the 2008 season. So I will look at the moves that he has made as a GM in subsequent post. I would love to be proven wrong on my statement that he is not a good general manager, but the facts will be laid out and I'll come to an ultimate decision.
The initial post-The Hall of Fame
In the most recent Hall of Fame election, the writers finally elected Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar. Normally, I would be excited because both of these players clearly deserve to go to the Hall of Fame. Also, because I joined the blogosphere, I am required to believe that Blyleven is a better Hall of Fame choice than Jack Morris. However, I found myself still angry at the BBWAA, which I am sure I will never be allowed to join. This will be the first post in a series to explain my frustration.
I will start with one player who I considered a lock to be in the Hall of Fame. That is Jeff Bagwell. Here is his baseball reference player page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml
In my own assessment of player rankings, I have Jeff Bagwell as the 4th greatest first basemen of all-time. He is behind Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Albert Pujols. I already realize that my opinion of a player does not matter but let's dwelve into his stats a little bit.
First, I'll present the WAR argument (if you don't like WAR skip to the next section). I averaged his WAR (baseball reference version) and fangraphs version. A quick aside, according to baseball reference a 8+ WAR season is an MVP season, 5+ an all-star season, 2+ servicable starter, below 2 an acceptable substitue mark, and 0 or below actual replacement level. Jeff Bagwell had a total of 8 seasons of 5+ WAR, so he had 8 seasons where he reached the level of an all-star season or higher. A list of first basemen who had the same amount or more than that, with their number in parentheses: Lou Gehrig (13), Jimmie Foxx (10), Albert Pujols (10), Frank Thomas (8), Mark McGwire (8), Johnny Mize (9), Cap Anson (8), Dan Brouthers (9), Roger Connor (8). Hank Greenberg should be included on this list as he 7 of such seasons and probably would have put more seasons of above 5+ WAR (averaged between Fangraphs and Baseball reference) similarily Johnny Mize probably would have more seasons of 5+ WAR both because of lost seasons due to World War II. Jeff Bagwell also had 3 seasons of 8+ WAR or 3 MVP seasons, here's the list of the first basemen who had 3 or more seasons of 8+ WAR with their numbers in parentheses, again: Lou Gehrig (9), Jimmie Foxx (6), Albert Pujols (7), and Dick Allen (3). I'll even put Hank Greenberg on that list again, because he had 2 seasons of 8+ WAR and it's possible, however unlikely, that he would get to that mark during his lost years. There's only 4 first basemen who averaged 5+ WAR each season, they are Gehrig (7.25), Foxx (5.15), Pujols (8.2), and Bagwell (5.45).
That paragraph was getting cluttered. I am still continuing with the WAR argument, sorry for those who wanted to skip it. For his highest, 5 consecutive years he averaged 7.27 WAR per season, the only first basemen who put up a better 5 years consecutively according to WAR: Lou Gehrig (9.19), Jimmie Foxx (9.44), Albert Pujols (7.83), George Sisler (7.63), Roger Connor (7.37), Todd Helton (7.31). It's hard to look at those numbers and conclude that Jeff Bagwell was not one of the very best who ever played his position.
Moving on from WAR, to look at his leaderboard courtesy of Baseball reference. He ranks 40th all-time in OBP, 35th in Slugging %, 21st in OPS, 62nd in runs scored, 66th in total bases, 60th in doubles, 34th in home runs, 45th in RBI's, 27th in walks, 35th in strikeouts (sadly), 37th in OPS+, 37th in runs created, and 55th in times on base. All of these numbers seem to indicate that he is a Hall of Famer.
There are a couple of arguments that I ahve heard against Jeff Bagwell. The first of which is that he did not reach any real milestone numbers in his career, he had 449 home runs, a .297 batting average, 2314 hits. I am not really sure where the milestone numbers are for RBI's and runs scored but he had over 1500 of each. My rebuttal to that argument is that he played 15 seasons, which is a lot but not enough to reach the markers of three thousand hits or five hundred homeruns. It probably would have taken two more years to get five hundred homeruns and depending on how he aged four to five seasons to get three thousand hits. Also, numerous hall of famers do not have these milestone numbers including Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, etc.
The second argument is that his numbers are inflated due to the environment he played in. This is WAR comes into play as well as OPS+. These two stats are supposed to control for the environment and show how much value a player actually has. This argument plays into a third, smaller argument, about the fact that despite Bagwell's alleged dominance he only made 4 all-star games. I personally hate the all-star game argument because the fans are the ones who vote players in, initially. Jeff Bagwell played in Houston, while a large city, is not usually a staple on mid-90's sports shows. This was also not the internet age where fans could easily access stats and follow every player.
Finally, for whatever reason Bagwell has fallen under PED suspicion. This makes absolutely no sense to me. Bagwell had no suspicions while he played (unlike for instance Mark McGwire who got caught with at least Andro) and was not mentioned in the Mitchell Report like other players (Roger Clemens comes to mind). However, Bagwell was teammates with Ken Caminiti who was a PED user. This allows people to link Bagwell with a connection to PED's. Once that is established, then every single thing falls under the suspicion of PED usage and that is all one can see. This logic is incredibly flawed. Any teammate of a known PED user must come under suspicion under that logic because steroids do not just impact power numbers, just ask Alex Sanchez, Jamal Strong, etc. Unfortunately this PED usage logic, prevails in some circles, and Bagwell was not elected in his first ballot. He had a strong showing 41.7% but it is not guaranteed that he will get elected. This would be a travesty to the Hall of Fame to not have one of the best five players of all-time at his position in the Hall of Fame based just on rumors and speculation without any facts.
I will start with one player who I considered a lock to be in the Hall of Fame. That is Jeff Bagwell. Here is his baseball reference player page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml
In my own assessment of player rankings, I have Jeff Bagwell as the 4th greatest first basemen of all-time. He is behind Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Albert Pujols. I already realize that my opinion of a player does not matter but let's dwelve into his stats a little bit.
First, I'll present the WAR argument (if you don't like WAR skip to the next section). I averaged his WAR (baseball reference version) and fangraphs version. A quick aside, according to baseball reference a 8+ WAR season is an MVP season, 5+ an all-star season, 2+ servicable starter, below 2 an acceptable substitue mark, and 0 or below actual replacement level. Jeff Bagwell had a total of 8 seasons of 5+ WAR, so he had 8 seasons where he reached the level of an all-star season or higher. A list of first basemen who had the same amount or more than that, with their number in parentheses: Lou Gehrig (13), Jimmie Foxx (10), Albert Pujols (10), Frank Thomas (8), Mark McGwire (8), Johnny Mize (9), Cap Anson (8), Dan Brouthers (9), Roger Connor (8). Hank Greenberg should be included on this list as he 7 of such seasons and probably would have put more seasons of above 5+ WAR (averaged between Fangraphs and Baseball reference) similarily Johnny Mize probably would have more seasons of 5+ WAR both because of lost seasons due to World War II. Jeff Bagwell also had 3 seasons of 8+ WAR or 3 MVP seasons, here's the list of the first basemen who had 3 or more seasons of 8+ WAR with their numbers in parentheses, again: Lou Gehrig (9), Jimmie Foxx (6), Albert Pujols (7), and Dick Allen (3). I'll even put Hank Greenberg on that list again, because he had 2 seasons of 8+ WAR and it's possible, however unlikely, that he would get to that mark during his lost years. There's only 4 first basemen who averaged 5+ WAR each season, they are Gehrig (7.25), Foxx (5.15), Pujols (8.2), and Bagwell (5.45).
That paragraph was getting cluttered. I am still continuing with the WAR argument, sorry for those who wanted to skip it. For his highest, 5 consecutive years he averaged 7.27 WAR per season, the only first basemen who put up a better 5 years consecutively according to WAR: Lou Gehrig (9.19), Jimmie Foxx (9.44), Albert Pujols (7.83), George Sisler (7.63), Roger Connor (7.37), Todd Helton (7.31). It's hard to look at those numbers and conclude that Jeff Bagwell was not one of the very best who ever played his position.
Moving on from WAR, to look at his leaderboard courtesy of Baseball reference. He ranks 40th all-time in OBP, 35th in Slugging %, 21st in OPS, 62nd in runs scored, 66th in total bases, 60th in doubles, 34th in home runs, 45th in RBI's, 27th in walks, 35th in strikeouts (sadly), 37th in OPS+, 37th in runs created, and 55th in times on base. All of these numbers seem to indicate that he is a Hall of Famer.
There are a couple of arguments that I ahve heard against Jeff Bagwell. The first of which is that he did not reach any real milestone numbers in his career, he had 449 home runs, a .297 batting average, 2314 hits. I am not really sure where the milestone numbers are for RBI's and runs scored but he had over 1500 of each. My rebuttal to that argument is that he played 15 seasons, which is a lot but not enough to reach the markers of three thousand hits or five hundred homeruns. It probably would have taken two more years to get five hundred homeruns and depending on how he aged four to five seasons to get three thousand hits. Also, numerous hall of famers do not have these milestone numbers including Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, etc.
The second argument is that his numbers are inflated due to the environment he played in. This is WAR comes into play as well as OPS+. These two stats are supposed to control for the environment and show how much value a player actually has. This argument plays into a third, smaller argument, about the fact that despite Bagwell's alleged dominance he only made 4 all-star games. I personally hate the all-star game argument because the fans are the ones who vote players in, initially. Jeff Bagwell played in Houston, while a large city, is not usually a staple on mid-90's sports shows. This was also not the internet age where fans could easily access stats and follow every player.
Finally, for whatever reason Bagwell has fallen under PED suspicion. This makes absolutely no sense to me. Bagwell had no suspicions while he played (unlike for instance Mark McGwire who got caught with at least Andro) and was not mentioned in the Mitchell Report like other players (Roger Clemens comes to mind). However, Bagwell was teammates with Ken Caminiti who was a PED user. This allows people to link Bagwell with a connection to PED's. Once that is established, then every single thing falls under the suspicion of PED usage and that is all one can see. This logic is incredibly flawed. Any teammate of a known PED user must come under suspicion under that logic because steroids do not just impact power numbers, just ask Alex Sanchez, Jamal Strong, etc. Unfortunately this PED usage logic, prevails in some circles, and Bagwell was not elected in his first ballot. He had a strong showing 41.7% but it is not guaranteed that he will get elected. This would be a travesty to the Hall of Fame to not have one of the best five players of all-time at his position in the Hall of Fame based just on rumors and speculation without any facts.
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