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Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Roger Maris
On December 11, 1959 the Kansas City A's traded outfielder Roger Maris and shortstop Joe DeMaestri to the New York Yankees in exchange for outfielders Hank Bauer, Norm Siebern, first baseman Marv Throneberry and pitcher Don Larsen. Maris had been an all-star the previous year; he had hit 16 home runs and had a .273 batting average with a .464 slugging percentage. His adjusted OPS was 123 which was only the second time in his short career that he had been above average in that category. It was unlikely that anyone could predict what was going to happen next.
In 1960, he hit 39 homeruns which was a career high. It would be easy to say that Maris took advantage of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium. However, it would be quite untrue. Maris hit 13 home runs at home and 26 on the road. His slugging percentage was .581 which led the league. His OPS which was .952 was second in the league. He led the league in WAR which only time travelers had heard about. He won the 1960 American League MVP Award over his teammate and outfieldmate Mickey Mantle. It would be easy to say that Maris was selected the MVP because of his RBI's (he led Mantle 112 to 90). It may very well be true. Maris' value was increased by his defense. Mantle's offensive WAR was ahead of Maris but defensively Maris was on top. This season would be the best of Maris' career, at least, according to WAR.
1961 was the most memorable season of his career and may have been the most damaging to his career. Maris hit 61 homeruns during the season, which most of you know. The previous record was held by the best baseball player of all-time, Babe Ruth. Ruth had hit 60 home runs in 1927. 1961 was the first season in Major League baseball where there was a 162-game schedule. The American League played 162 games, meanwhile, the National League played the 154-game schedule.
After the first 15 games of the season Maris had only hit 1 home run. This was not the start of a record-breaking home run season. In the month of May, Maris had hit 11 home runs. He only had 12 heading into June. Mark McGwire when he broke the record in 1998 had hit 30 home runs at the same time. Maris was on fire in both June and July.
Maris' stat line for the month of June is as follows: 32 Games. 123 At-bats. 15 Home Runs. .276/.375/.707. His OPS+ for that month was 185.
73 games into the season Maris had hit 27 home runs. He was now starting to feel the pressure of possibly challenging the home run record.
In the month of July, Maris was even better. In 28 games in the month of July, he hit 13 more homeruns. His OPS+ that month was 199. In 101 games he had already hit 40 home runs. The pressure was beginning to mount. During this time Maris started lose clumps of hair. His hair was falling out due to the pressure.
In August, he began to slow down, well because he is not the home run hitter Ruth was and continuing at that pace is humanly impossible. Maris' August was 31 games and 11 home runs. His stats slipped all over the board that month. As his stats were falling, so was his hair.
Maris entered September with 51 homeruns.
He hit 9 homeruns and had tied Babe Ruth in less plate appearances. Maris hit his 60th home run in his 684th plate appearance. Ruth had hit 60 homeruns in 689 plate appearances.
In the final game of the season of 1961, Maris finally hit the 61st homerun to break the record.
According to many sources, there was no official asterisk when Maris held the record. Former baseball commissioner Ford Frick, a former Ruth biographer, noted his opinion that if a player broke the mark in the 154 games that they would be considered to be the new record holder but if it took more games it would have to have some mark that it took the new record holder more games to break the record.
Another idea to discredit Maris has been to mention that Maris took advantage of the short right field porch to break the record. He actually hit 30 of his 61 home runs at home and the other 31 were hit on the road. All of his other stats were higher at home than they were on the road but he actually had more home runs on the road. (It should be noted that he had played 3 more games on the road than he did at home). However, if he was taking advantage of the right field porch, we would see Maris hitting way more home runs at home than on the road. We do not see evidence of this.
One of the most interesting things about Maris' record-breaking season is that he did not hit a grand slam the whole year. Maris only had two at-bats the entire season with the bases loaded which seems incredibly low. I never realized how few at-bats Maris had with the bases loaded.
The story of Roger Maris has always intrigued me. Maris who had never hit 40 home runs before or after this season was able to break the single season home run record. The story of a player improving that dramatically has always intersted me. If it wasn't for stories such as Roger Maris I would not be a sports fan, still.
In 1960, he hit 39 homeruns which was a career high. It would be easy to say that Maris took advantage of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium. However, it would be quite untrue. Maris hit 13 home runs at home and 26 on the road. His slugging percentage was .581 which led the league. His OPS which was .952 was second in the league. He led the league in WAR which only time travelers had heard about. He won the 1960 American League MVP Award over his teammate and outfieldmate Mickey Mantle. It would be easy to say that Maris was selected the MVP because of his RBI's (he led Mantle 112 to 90). It may very well be true. Maris' value was increased by his defense. Mantle's offensive WAR was ahead of Maris but defensively Maris was on top. This season would be the best of Maris' career, at least, according to WAR.
1961 was the most memorable season of his career and may have been the most damaging to his career. Maris hit 61 homeruns during the season, which most of you know. The previous record was held by the best baseball player of all-time, Babe Ruth. Ruth had hit 60 home runs in 1927. 1961 was the first season in Major League baseball where there was a 162-game schedule. The American League played 162 games, meanwhile, the National League played the 154-game schedule.
After the first 15 games of the season Maris had only hit 1 home run. This was not the start of a record-breaking home run season. In the month of May, Maris had hit 11 home runs. He only had 12 heading into June. Mark McGwire when he broke the record in 1998 had hit 30 home runs at the same time. Maris was on fire in both June and July.
Maris' stat line for the month of June is as follows: 32 Games. 123 At-bats. 15 Home Runs. .276/.375/.707. His OPS+ for that month was 185.
73 games into the season Maris had hit 27 home runs. He was now starting to feel the pressure of possibly challenging the home run record.
In the month of July, Maris was even better. In 28 games in the month of July, he hit 13 more homeruns. His OPS+ that month was 199. In 101 games he had already hit 40 home runs. The pressure was beginning to mount. During this time Maris started lose clumps of hair. His hair was falling out due to the pressure.
In August, he began to slow down, well because he is not the home run hitter Ruth was and continuing at that pace is humanly impossible. Maris' August was 31 games and 11 home runs. His stats slipped all over the board that month. As his stats were falling, so was his hair.
Maris entered September with 51 homeruns.
He hit 9 homeruns and had tied Babe Ruth in less plate appearances. Maris hit his 60th home run in his 684th plate appearance. Ruth had hit 60 homeruns in 689 plate appearances.
In the final game of the season of 1961, Maris finally hit the 61st homerun to break the record.
According to many sources, there was no official asterisk when Maris held the record. Former baseball commissioner Ford Frick, a former Ruth biographer, noted his opinion that if a player broke the mark in the 154 games that they would be considered to be the new record holder but if it took more games it would have to have some mark that it took the new record holder more games to break the record.
Another idea to discredit Maris has been to mention that Maris took advantage of the short right field porch to break the record. He actually hit 30 of his 61 home runs at home and the other 31 were hit on the road. All of his other stats were higher at home than they were on the road but he actually had more home runs on the road. (It should be noted that he had played 3 more games on the road than he did at home). However, if he was taking advantage of the right field porch, we would see Maris hitting way more home runs at home than on the road. We do not see evidence of this.
One of the most interesting things about Maris' record-breaking season is that he did not hit a grand slam the whole year. Maris only had two at-bats the entire season with the bases loaded which seems incredibly low. I never realized how few at-bats Maris had with the bases loaded.
The story of Roger Maris has always intrigued me. Maris who had never hit 40 home runs before or after this season was able to break the single season home run record. The story of a player improving that dramatically has always intersted me. If it wasn't for stories such as Roger Maris I would not be a sports fan, still.
Monday, June 27, 2011
NBA Draft Review Part 1 of 30: Atlanta Hawks
Disclaimer: I'm not an NBA scout nor an expert on the NBA. I am merely using what other people are saying as well as some of my own thoughts and observations based on what I saw while watching NCAA basketbal and the NBA. I watch way more NCAA basketball than I do in the NBA. When I don't know about the foreign players, I will defer to the experts for the most part.
Atlanta Hawks: They had one pick in the draft and that was in the second round and the 18th pick in the 2nd round. Sports Illustrated listed their needs as a small forward, a point guard, and a center.
2 (18)- Keith Benson C Oakland
(6-11, 230) 17.9 PPG 10.1 RPG
Analysis: Second round picks usually don't pan out mainly because they're not guaranteed contracts when they are selected but also because usually they're not considered to be that good. With that being said, you can easily fill out the last part of your team with 2nd round picks and see where they develop. Chad Ford stated in a podcast that there was a lot of value in this draft after the lottery because there is a lot of players who are similar in the 20's and in the 2nd round.
Keith Benson does help the Hawks need to get more size. However, Benson needs to fill out more as he is only 230 pounds. If he hits the weight room and all of those cliches he will hopefully be able to give them the size that they need. He was able to rebound and score against lesser opponents but he had problems with defense. I think it is a pretty solid pick because he is the exact type of player you want to select in the 2nd round because he has potential to become much better then he is right now.
Another pick that could have made sense: 1. Josh Selby PG Kansas- I acknowledge that there is certainly some character problems with Selby as well as questions about whether or not he can be less selfish. I think he will be a great pick especially considering that he was a 2nd round pick. 2. Isaiah Thomas PG Washington- I also think Thomas will have a nice career as a point guard. Although, he is a bit undersized so some consider him a liability on defense, if you're looking for offense at the point guard position, you could do a lot worse than Thomas. 3. Jereme Richmond SG/SF Illinois- There is some character issues, as well. Richmond might be able to hit his potential and Sports Illustrated listed him as a potential late 1st/early 2nd round pick. I didn't like Richmond that much.
They said it: Sports Illustrated listed center as a need but Sam Amick the NBA draft guru for Sports Illustrated said "And clearly they had laser focus when it came to getting a big man, which is pretty odd for a team that's not lacking in that very category."
Overall: I like the pick more than most and I think Benson has a very good shot of making the roster and sticking on it. I thought Benson had potential as a late 1st round pick, especially in a weak draft class. I thought the Hawks did a good job selecting a center. The only player that I thought might be better than Benson that made sense for them was Josh Selby.
Atlanta Hawks: They had one pick in the draft and that was in the second round and the 18th pick in the 2nd round. Sports Illustrated listed their needs as a small forward, a point guard, and a center.
2 (18)- Keith Benson C Oakland
(6-11, 230) 17.9 PPG 10.1 RPG
Analysis: Second round picks usually don't pan out mainly because they're not guaranteed contracts when they are selected but also because usually they're not considered to be that good. With that being said, you can easily fill out the last part of your team with 2nd round picks and see where they develop. Chad Ford stated in a podcast that there was a lot of value in this draft after the lottery because there is a lot of players who are similar in the 20's and in the 2nd round.
Keith Benson does help the Hawks need to get more size. However, Benson needs to fill out more as he is only 230 pounds. If he hits the weight room and all of those cliches he will hopefully be able to give them the size that they need. He was able to rebound and score against lesser opponents but he had problems with defense. I think it is a pretty solid pick because he is the exact type of player you want to select in the 2nd round because he has potential to become much better then he is right now.
Another pick that could have made sense: 1. Josh Selby PG Kansas- I acknowledge that there is certainly some character problems with Selby as well as questions about whether or not he can be less selfish. I think he will be a great pick especially considering that he was a 2nd round pick. 2. Isaiah Thomas PG Washington- I also think Thomas will have a nice career as a point guard. Although, he is a bit undersized so some consider him a liability on defense, if you're looking for offense at the point guard position, you could do a lot worse than Thomas. 3. Jereme Richmond SG/SF Illinois- There is some character issues, as well. Richmond might be able to hit his potential and Sports Illustrated listed him as a potential late 1st/early 2nd round pick. I didn't like Richmond that much.
They said it: Sports Illustrated listed center as a need but Sam Amick the NBA draft guru for Sports Illustrated said "And clearly they had laser focus when it came to getting a big man, which is pretty odd for a team that's not lacking in that very category."
Overall: I like the pick more than most and I think Benson has a very good shot of making the roster and sticking on it. I thought Benson had potential as a late 1st round pick, especially in a weak draft class. I thought the Hawks did a good job selecting a center. The only player that I thought might be better than Benson that made sense for them was Josh Selby.
All-Time Player Rankings: Centerfield #41
I looked up and the random number was selected as 41 so here I am writing about the 41st greatest centerfielder of all-time.
George Gore
Score: 29.34. Career: 8.87. 5 Highest: 4.68. Average: 3.15. 3 Highest: 3.18. 10 Highest: 8.46. All-Star Seasons: 2. MVP Seasons: 0.
Best Season:
1885. .313/.405/.454/.399. 138 Hits 115 Runs 21 doubles 13 triples 5 homeruns 57 RBI's 162 OPS+. wRC+ 151.
Averaged WAR: 5.7.
I probably never would of Gore if it wasn't for the New Bill James Historical Abstract which introduced me to more of the history of the game then I ever thought was possible. In 1885 he was 2nd place in WAR for position players in the league. The player that beat him was Roger Connor who had a 9.5 rWAR.
In the 1885 World Series, the Chicago White Stockings tied the St. Louis Browns 3-3-1. Gore only played in one of the games. He went 0-3 with a run and a walk.
In the New Bill James Historical Abstract he talks about how in the early days of baseball ties were quite common. I can only think of a couple of explanations as to why this may be the case. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
The first of these explanations would be, I think, the best explanation. This explanation is the time element. I think perhaps the games were going too long and were merely called at a certain point if the players could no longer see the baseball even if there was a tie. This has changed in modern times if a game is tied to a certain point and can no longer be played because of weather the game is suspended and resumed at a different point. I think due to the travel schedule at the time it may have been harder to make up these games. I also think that due to inaccurate reporting that it may not have been possible to resume suspended games but I can't prove that. I have no idea why games could not be suspended until a later time, the only thing I can think of for that is a) hectic travel b) inaccurate record keeping c) apathy.
A second explanation for why there might be ties is the lack of fans really caring about their teams and setting team records such as most wins, highest winning %, etc. I would assume that they cared more about making money then anything else. In order to make money, there had to be fans in the stadium. It would be hard to convince the fans to sit through a three inning game to resolve a tie. Although, I have no idea why they couldn't do it somewhat like a doubleheader or something like that. Any explanation I have does not explain why there was a tie in this World Series. Or maybe there is a better explanation that I cannot find 130 years later.
George Gore
Score: 29.34. Career: 8.87. 5 Highest: 4.68. Average: 3.15. 3 Highest: 3.18. 10 Highest: 8.46. All-Star Seasons: 2. MVP Seasons: 0.
Best Season:
1885. .313/.405/.454/.399. 138 Hits 115 Runs 21 doubles 13 triples 5 homeruns 57 RBI's 162 OPS+. wRC+ 151.
Averaged WAR: 5.7.
I probably never would of Gore if it wasn't for the New Bill James Historical Abstract which introduced me to more of the history of the game then I ever thought was possible. In 1885 he was 2nd place in WAR for position players in the league. The player that beat him was Roger Connor who had a 9.5 rWAR.
In the 1885 World Series, the Chicago White Stockings tied the St. Louis Browns 3-3-1. Gore only played in one of the games. He went 0-3 with a run and a walk.
In the New Bill James Historical Abstract he talks about how in the early days of baseball ties were quite common. I can only think of a couple of explanations as to why this may be the case. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
The first of these explanations would be, I think, the best explanation. This explanation is the time element. I think perhaps the games were going too long and were merely called at a certain point if the players could no longer see the baseball even if there was a tie. This has changed in modern times if a game is tied to a certain point and can no longer be played because of weather the game is suspended and resumed at a different point. I think due to the travel schedule at the time it may have been harder to make up these games. I also think that due to inaccurate reporting that it may not have been possible to resume suspended games but I can't prove that. I have no idea why games could not be suspended until a later time, the only thing I can think of for that is a) hectic travel b) inaccurate record keeping c) apathy.
A second explanation for why there might be ties is the lack of fans really caring about their teams and setting team records such as most wins, highest winning %, etc. I would assume that they cared more about making money then anything else. In order to make money, there had to be fans in the stadium. It would be hard to convince the fans to sit through a three inning game to resolve a tie. Although, I have no idea why they couldn't do it somewhat like a doubleheader or something like that. Any explanation I have does not explain why there was a tie in this World Series. Or maybe there is a better explanation that I cannot find 130 years later.
Friday, June 24, 2011
The Final Push: National League All-Star Voting
National League:
Catcher:
1. Brian McCann Atlanta Braves: fWAR: 2.8. .305/.380/.523/.386.
2. Ramon Hernandez Cincinnati Reds: fWAR: 1.4. .308/.371/.503/.374.
3. Chris Iannetta Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.1. .229/.389/.447/.369.
Notes: This is with my new method of giving points based on places in WAR and the quadruple slash. McCann placed first as he placed either first or second in every category I weighed.
First Base:
1. Prince Fielder Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.7. .306/.426/.608/.439.
2. Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds: fWAR: 3.2. .318/.440/.489/.406.
3. Todd Helton Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.2. .310/.387/.500/.382.
Notes: Fielder ranks first in Slg%, wOBA, and WAR. He ranks second in OBP and 4th place in batting average.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.3. .287/.356/.498/.375.
2. Chase Utley Philadelphia Phillies: fWAR: 1.4. .277/.383/.455/.374.
3. Danny Espinosa Washington Nationals: fWAR: 2.8. .242/.321/.464/.348.
Notes: Weeks ranked 1st in WAR, Slg%, and wOBA just like his teammate Fielder. He ranked 3rd in OBP. He's a worthy all-star.
Third Base:
1. Chase Headley San Diego Padres: fWAR: 2.0. .295/.389/.402/.357.
2. Ryan Roberts Arizona Diamondbacks: fWAR: 2.1. .258/.345/.458/.354.
3. Ty Wigginton Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 1.0. .266/.322/.489/.358.
Notes: Headley is behind by 0.1 WAR but tops him in Average, OBP, and wOBA. So I think he is the worthy choice at 3B this year.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes New York Mets: fWAR: 4.3. .338/.382/.511/.395.
2. Starlin Castro Chicago Cubs: fWAR: 1.9. .322/.352/.443/.357.
3. Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 3.0. .274/.338/.488/.357.
Notes: Reyes got a perfect score. He is the best shortstop in every stat that I look at.
Left Field:
1. Matt Holliday St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 3.0. .339/.443/.559/.433.
2. Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.4. .309/.395/.550/.417.
3. Allen Craig St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 1.5. .336/.405/.523/.415.
Notes: I thought Braun would score higher but Holliday ranks a bit higher.
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers: fWAR: 4.2. .328/.420/.620/.452.
2. Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates: fWAR: 4.0. .289/.393/.474/.388.
3. Nyjer Morgan Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 1.5. .336/.365/.514/.379.
Notes: Kemp and McCutchen are both worthy all-stars but Kemp gets the starting nod.
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 2.7. .309/.417/.605/.427.
2. Justin Upton Arizona Diamondbacks: fWAR: 3.3. .301/.382/.521/.397.
3. Seth Smith Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.3. .315/.368/.554/.397.
Notes: Technically Allen Craig is 2nd but he doesn't qualify since he ranked in the top 3 in the left field category.
Catcher:
1. Brian McCann Atlanta Braves: fWAR: 2.8. .305/.380/.523/.386.
2. Ramon Hernandez Cincinnati Reds: fWAR: 1.4. .308/.371/.503/.374.
3. Chris Iannetta Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.1. .229/.389/.447/.369.
Notes: This is with my new method of giving points based on places in WAR and the quadruple slash. McCann placed first as he placed either first or second in every category I weighed.
First Base:
1. Prince Fielder Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.7. .306/.426/.608/.439.
2. Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds: fWAR: 3.2. .318/.440/.489/.406.
3. Todd Helton Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.2. .310/.387/.500/.382.
Notes: Fielder ranks first in Slg%, wOBA, and WAR. He ranks second in OBP and 4th place in batting average.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.3. .287/.356/.498/.375.
2. Chase Utley Philadelphia Phillies: fWAR: 1.4. .277/.383/.455/.374.
3. Danny Espinosa Washington Nationals: fWAR: 2.8. .242/.321/.464/.348.
Notes: Weeks ranked 1st in WAR, Slg%, and wOBA just like his teammate Fielder. He ranked 3rd in OBP. He's a worthy all-star.
Third Base:
1. Chase Headley San Diego Padres: fWAR: 2.0. .295/.389/.402/.357.
2. Ryan Roberts Arizona Diamondbacks: fWAR: 2.1. .258/.345/.458/.354.
3. Ty Wigginton Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 1.0. .266/.322/.489/.358.
Notes: Headley is behind by 0.1 WAR but tops him in Average, OBP, and wOBA. So I think he is the worthy choice at 3B this year.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes New York Mets: fWAR: 4.3. .338/.382/.511/.395.
2. Starlin Castro Chicago Cubs: fWAR: 1.9. .322/.352/.443/.357.
3. Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 3.0. .274/.338/.488/.357.
Notes: Reyes got a perfect score. He is the best shortstop in every stat that I look at.
Left Field:
1. Matt Holliday St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 3.0. .339/.443/.559/.433.
2. Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 3.4. .309/.395/.550/.417.
3. Allen Craig St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 1.5. .336/.405/.523/.415.
Notes: I thought Braun would score higher but Holliday ranks a bit higher.
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers: fWAR: 4.2. .328/.420/.620/.452.
2. Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates: fWAR: 4.0. .289/.393/.474/.388.
3. Nyjer Morgan Milwaukee Brewers: fWAR: 1.5. .336/.365/.514/.379.
Notes: Kemp and McCutchen are both worthy all-stars but Kemp gets the starting nod.
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman St. Louis Cardinals: fWAR: 2.7. .309/.417/.605/.427.
2. Justin Upton Arizona Diamondbacks: fWAR: 3.3. .301/.382/.521/.397.
3. Seth Smith Colorado Rockies: fWAR: 2.3. .315/.368/.554/.397.
Notes: Technically Allen Craig is 2nd but he doesn't qualify since he ranked in the top 3 in the left field category.
All-Star Voting: the final push American League
These are the players I would vote for if I was voting today (which I am). I am just doing the top 3 at each position (except where there is a tie).
American League:
1. Alex Avila Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 2.5. .300/.373/.532/.390.
2. Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians: fWAR: 1.8. .232/.360/.414/.341.
3. Russell Martin New York Yankees: fWAR: 1.8. .233/.342/.407/.344.
Notes: Not that it matters since Avila is so far and away the best catcher in the American League but I have Santana ahead of Martin because of his edge in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
In case you don't like WAR: minimum 100 at-bats: Avila ranks 2nd in average behind Victor Martinez who primarily plays DH. He ranks 2nd in OBP behind Victor Martinez. He ranks 1st in slugging percentage. He's also tied for 1st in RBI's with Victor Martinez and tied for 3rd in home runs. Since Victor Martinez is primarily DH'ing I give the nod to Avila.
First Base: 1. Adrian Gonzalez Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 4.4. .359/.410/.609/.437.
2. Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 3.2. .327/.449/.580/.434.
3. Paul Konerko Chicago White Sox: fWAR: 2.4. .327/.398/.603/.425.
4. Mark Teixeira New York Yankees: fWAR: 2.4. .246/.357/.522/.382.
Notes: Konerko is ranked ahead of Teixeira because he beats him on each offensive category that I look at. I primarily look at the quadruple slash. I'll be free to admit that Teixeira is the better defensive player and it's possible that I underrate defense especially at first base. Not that it matters, I don't think any amount of defense makes up for Adrian Gonzalez's overall dominance.
In case you don't like WAR: Adrian Gonzalez leads all 1B in RBI's, Runs, Hits, Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and wOBA. He is second in OBP.
Second Base: 1. Dustin Pedroia Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 3.5. .274/.390/.397/.360.
2. Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay Rays: fWAR: 3.5. .264/.341/.475/.359.
3. Howie Kendrick Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: fWAR: 3.2. .305/.362/.481/.374.
Notes: I guess it depends on how you feel about defense and on-base percentage. I have Pedroia as the starter because he has the best On-Base Percentage of all second basemen. His K% is also a little bit lower and has more stolen bases. I like Zobrsit as well, but I feel like he should make the team to be a utility player.
In case you don't like WAR: With the quadruple slash, here are your leaders at second base (minimum plate appearances 100). Batting Average: Howie Kendrick .305. On-Base Percentage: Dustin Pedroia .390. Slugging Percentage: Robinson Cano .520. wOBA: Robinson Cano .377. Why isn't Cano higher? His on-base percentage is a .344 which is lower than Zobrist's and he doesn't play as good as defense as Zobrist. If we were to give out points for top 5 so far in the quadruple slash (5 for 1st place, 4 for 2nd, 3 for 3rd, etc.) This is how it shakes out: 1. Howie Kendrick 16 2. Robinson Cano 14. 3. Dustin Pedroia 9. 4. Maicer Izturis 6. 5. Ben Zobrist 5. So, you could argue Kendrick, Cano, or Pedroia. I just like Pedroia the best.
Third Base:
1. Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees: fWAR: 3.6. .296/.375/.510/.389.
2. Kevin Youkilis Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 2.8. .279/.395/.506/.395.
3. Adrian Beltre Texas Rangers: fWAR: 2.3. .259/.306/.439/.325.
Notes: A-Rod has a higher slugging percentage and a higher batting average than Youkilis but Youk has a higer on-base percentage and a higher wOBA. A-Rod is also playing better defense than Youk, as well.
In case you don't like WAR: A-Rod leads American League third basemen in homeruns, slugging percentage, and batting average for third basemen with a minimum of 100 plate appearances.
Left Field:
1. Josh Hamilton Texas Rangers: fWAR: 1.3. .297/.360/.513/.373.
2. Brennan Boesch Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 1.8. .300/.359/.485/.364.
3. Brett Gardner New York Yankees: fWAR: 2.8. .286/.363/.432/.347.
Notes: see In case you don't like WAR.
In case you don't like WAR: To get to this point I awarded points similar to how I did it in the second base section but this time I also included WAR. This was the result, actually Boesch and Hamilton tied so I gave the tie to Hamilton based on higher OBP, slugging percentage, and wOBA.
Center Field:
1. Curtis Granderson New York Yankees: fWAR: 3.9. .278/.356/.584/.401.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 3.1. .310/.372/.465/.374.
3. Denard Span Minnesota Twins: fWAR: 2.8. .294/.361/.385/.338.
Notes: Granderson has been having a fantastic year and is far and away the best centerfielder in the American League even despite his mediocore onbase percentage. His slugging percentage and wOBA are by far the best in the league at his position.
In case you don't like WAR: see Granderson's slugging percentage and wOBA.
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays: fWAR: 4.5. .325/.470/.654/.474.
2. Matt Joyce Tampa Bay Rays: fWAR: 2.4. .309/.372/.534/.388.
3. Carlos Quentin Chicago White Sox: fWAR: 2.2. .256/.358/.535/.389.
Notes: It doesn't matter where the other two rank. Bautista is the best player in the American League this year.
In case you don't like WAR: look at every other stat basically.
DH:
1. David Ortiz Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 2.6. .313/.391/.586/.421.
2. Billy Butler Kansas City Royals: fWAR: 1.6. .332/.381/.500/.381.
American League:
1. Alex Avila Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 2.5. .300/.373/.532/.390.
2. Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians: fWAR: 1.8. .232/.360/.414/.341.
3. Russell Martin New York Yankees: fWAR: 1.8. .233/.342/.407/.344.
Notes: Not that it matters since Avila is so far and away the best catcher in the American League but I have Santana ahead of Martin because of his edge in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
In case you don't like WAR: minimum 100 at-bats: Avila ranks 2nd in average behind Victor Martinez who primarily plays DH. He ranks 2nd in OBP behind Victor Martinez. He ranks 1st in slugging percentage. He's also tied for 1st in RBI's with Victor Martinez and tied for 3rd in home runs. Since Victor Martinez is primarily DH'ing I give the nod to Avila.
First Base: 1. Adrian Gonzalez Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 4.4. .359/.410/.609/.437.
2. Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 3.2. .327/.449/.580/.434.
3. Paul Konerko Chicago White Sox: fWAR: 2.4. .327/.398/.603/.425.
4. Mark Teixeira New York Yankees: fWAR: 2.4. .246/.357/.522/.382.
Notes: Konerko is ranked ahead of Teixeira because he beats him on each offensive category that I look at. I primarily look at the quadruple slash. I'll be free to admit that Teixeira is the better defensive player and it's possible that I underrate defense especially at first base. Not that it matters, I don't think any amount of defense makes up for Adrian Gonzalez's overall dominance.
In case you don't like WAR: Adrian Gonzalez leads all 1B in RBI's, Runs, Hits, Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and wOBA. He is second in OBP.
Second Base: 1. Dustin Pedroia Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 3.5. .274/.390/.397/.360.
2. Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay Rays: fWAR: 3.5. .264/.341/.475/.359.
3. Howie Kendrick Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: fWAR: 3.2. .305/.362/.481/.374.
Notes: I guess it depends on how you feel about defense and on-base percentage. I have Pedroia as the starter because he has the best On-Base Percentage of all second basemen. His K% is also a little bit lower and has more stolen bases. I like Zobrsit as well, but I feel like he should make the team to be a utility player.
In case you don't like WAR: With the quadruple slash, here are your leaders at second base (minimum plate appearances 100). Batting Average: Howie Kendrick .305. On-Base Percentage: Dustin Pedroia .390. Slugging Percentage: Robinson Cano .520. wOBA: Robinson Cano .377. Why isn't Cano higher? His on-base percentage is a .344 which is lower than Zobrist's and he doesn't play as good as defense as Zobrist. If we were to give out points for top 5 so far in the quadruple slash (5 for 1st place, 4 for 2nd, 3 for 3rd, etc.) This is how it shakes out: 1. Howie Kendrick 16 2. Robinson Cano 14. 3. Dustin Pedroia 9. 4. Maicer Izturis 6. 5. Ben Zobrist 5. So, you could argue Kendrick, Cano, or Pedroia. I just like Pedroia the best.
Third Base:
1. Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees: fWAR: 3.6. .296/.375/.510/.389.
2. Kevin Youkilis Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 2.8. .279/.395/.506/.395.
3. Adrian Beltre Texas Rangers: fWAR: 2.3. .259/.306/.439/.325.
Notes: A-Rod has a higher slugging percentage and a higher batting average than Youkilis but Youk has a higer on-base percentage and a higher wOBA. A-Rod is also playing better defense than Youk, as well.
In case you don't like WAR: A-Rod leads American League third basemen in homeruns, slugging percentage, and batting average for third basemen with a minimum of 100 plate appearances.
Left Field:
1. Josh Hamilton Texas Rangers: fWAR: 1.3. .297/.360/.513/.373.
2. Brennan Boesch Detroit Tigers: fWAR: 1.8. .300/.359/.485/.364.
3. Brett Gardner New York Yankees: fWAR: 2.8. .286/.363/.432/.347.
Notes: see In case you don't like WAR.
In case you don't like WAR: To get to this point I awarded points similar to how I did it in the second base section but this time I also included WAR. This was the result, actually Boesch and Hamilton tied so I gave the tie to Hamilton based on higher OBP, slugging percentage, and wOBA.
Center Field:
1. Curtis Granderson New York Yankees: fWAR: 3.9. .278/.356/.584/.401.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 3.1. .310/.372/.465/.374.
3. Denard Span Minnesota Twins: fWAR: 2.8. .294/.361/.385/.338.
Notes: Granderson has been having a fantastic year and is far and away the best centerfielder in the American League even despite his mediocore onbase percentage. His slugging percentage and wOBA are by far the best in the league at his position.
In case you don't like WAR: see Granderson's slugging percentage and wOBA.
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays: fWAR: 4.5. .325/.470/.654/.474.
2. Matt Joyce Tampa Bay Rays: fWAR: 2.4. .309/.372/.534/.388.
3. Carlos Quentin Chicago White Sox: fWAR: 2.2. .256/.358/.535/.389.
Notes: It doesn't matter where the other two rank. Bautista is the best player in the American League this year.
In case you don't like WAR: look at every other stat basically.
DH:
1. David Ortiz Boston Red Sox: fWAR: 2.6. .313/.391/.586/.421.
2. Billy Butler Kansas City Royals: fWAR: 1.6. .332/.381/.500/.381.
Monday, June 20, 2011
2012 Hall of Fame Ballot: Brad Radke
The case for and against Brad Radke:
3 All-Star seasons according for averaged WAR. 3 All-Star seasons according to rWAR and 4 according to fWAR. 1 Top 10 finish in WAR (2004). Four top 10 seasons in WAR for pitchers (1998, 1999, 2000, 2004). Two top 5 finishes in ERA (1999 and 2004). One top 5 finish in wins (1997). 6 top 10 finishes in WHIP (1996, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005). One top 10 finish in strikeouts (1997). 8 top 10 finishes in shutouts (1995, 1997, 2000-2005). Two top 10 finishes in ERA+. Ranked #103 in my top pitchers of all-time. ERA+ of 113, not too far ahead of Jack Morris. Twice led the league in Home Runs Allowed. One All-Star Game. 4.22 career ERA.
Radke was one of my favorite pitchers. He pitched for the Twins when I was getting back into baseball. He also pitched through a severe shoulder injury that made him eventually retire. He wasn't noted as a big game pitcher because the Twins didn't win the World Series and only advanced to the ALCS once. Radke pitched six games and had an ERA of 3.60 much better than his career ERA.
I don't think Radke is a Hall of Fame player but he ranks higher on my ranking system than Jack Morris. The only things Jack Morris has over Radke is post-season heroics which doesn't amount to a whole lot when you look at Morris' failures, as well.
I would sooner put Radke in the Hall of Fame than Jack Morris but nevertheless I have to say that Radke would not get my vote for the Hall of Fame. Although he certainly warrants a little bit of consideration.
3 All-Star seasons according for averaged WAR. 3 All-Star seasons according to rWAR and 4 according to fWAR. 1 Top 10 finish in WAR (2004). Four top 10 seasons in WAR for pitchers (1998, 1999, 2000, 2004). Two top 5 finishes in ERA (1999 and 2004). One top 5 finish in wins (1997). 6 top 10 finishes in WHIP (1996, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005). One top 10 finish in strikeouts (1997). 8 top 10 finishes in shutouts (1995, 1997, 2000-2005). Two top 10 finishes in ERA+. Ranked #103 in my top pitchers of all-time. ERA+ of 113, not too far ahead of Jack Morris. Twice led the league in Home Runs Allowed. One All-Star Game. 4.22 career ERA.
Radke was one of my favorite pitchers. He pitched for the Twins when I was getting back into baseball. He also pitched through a severe shoulder injury that made him eventually retire. He wasn't noted as a big game pitcher because the Twins didn't win the World Series and only advanced to the ALCS once. Radke pitched six games and had an ERA of 3.60 much better than his career ERA.
I don't think Radke is a Hall of Fame player but he ranks higher on my ranking system than Jack Morris. The only things Jack Morris has over Radke is post-season heroics which doesn't amount to a whole lot when you look at Morris' failures, as well.
I would sooner put Radke in the Hall of Fame than Jack Morris but nevertheless I have to say that Radke would not get my vote for the Hall of Fame. Although he certainly warrants a little bit of consideration.
2012 Hall of Fame Ballot: Juan Gonzalez
Pros: Two MVP's (1996 and 1998). 3 Top 10 finishes in AVG (1998, 1999, 2001). 7 Top 10 finishes in Slugging Percentage (1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001). Led league once in slugging percentage (1993). 5 Top 10 finishes in OPS (1993, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001). Led league in home runs twice (1992 and 1993). Led league in RBI's once (1998). 3 All-Star Games.
Cons: Only 2 All-Star Seasons according to averaged WAR. Ranked as the 70th best Right Fielder according to my rankings. .343 On-Base percentage (not exactly strong). 0 MVP seasons according to WAR. Only once walked more than 50 times. Helped by home park immensely. 3 Top 10 finishes in OPS+ (1993, 1998, 2001). 1 Top 10 finish in rWAR (1993).
Notes:Besides hitting homeruns and putting up impressive RBI numbers he did not contribute much else. His RBI totals are inflated because his manager chose to do a traditional line-up and so he had many opportunites to have a high RBI total. He also played in a ballpark with the Rangers that helped his offensive stats immensely. His MVP totals seem to indicate that voters were impressed by his high RBI totals, thinking incorrectly, that RBI's are the true measure of an offensive player.
He was also linked to steroids and HGH through a suitcase that floated up in customs.
He was a good player and was not nearly as good as his RBI totals would indicate.
Verdict: Not a Hall of Famer, didn't really deserve to stay on the ballot after his first year.
Cons: Only 2 All-Star Seasons according to averaged WAR. Ranked as the 70th best Right Fielder according to my rankings. .343 On-Base percentage (not exactly strong). 0 MVP seasons according to WAR. Only once walked more than 50 times. Helped by home park immensely. 3 Top 10 finishes in OPS+ (1993, 1998, 2001). 1 Top 10 finish in rWAR (1993).
Notes:Besides hitting homeruns and putting up impressive RBI numbers he did not contribute much else. His RBI totals are inflated because his manager chose to do a traditional line-up and so he had many opportunites to have a high RBI total. He also played in a ballpark with the Rangers that helped his offensive stats immensely. His MVP totals seem to indicate that voters were impressed by his high RBI totals, thinking incorrectly, that RBI's are the true measure of an offensive player.
He was also linked to steroids and HGH through a suitcase that floated up in customs.
He was a good player and was not nearly as good as his RBI totals would indicate.
Verdict: Not a Hall of Famer, didn't really deserve to stay on the ballot after his first year.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame
I was trying to look for an original post to do so I wouldn't have to talk about this because let's be honest, the subject has been beaten to death. But just for fun I'll talk about Jack Morris' Hall of Fame chances.
Pros: 254 wins, won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series (arguably one of the best games of all-time), "ace" of 3 World Series Champions, 5 All-Star Appearances, led the league in wins twice, led the league in innings once, led the league once in strikeouts, once in complete games, once in shutouts. Had a fantastic moustache.
Cons: 105 ERA+ (just barely above average), not in the top 100 for 100 best pitchers in the New Bill James Historical Abstract, not in my top 100 either, 3.90 career ERA, one all-star season according to rWAR, 1 according to fWAR. No all-star seasons if averaged WAR. Never led the league in ERA, WHIP, ERA+. Led the league once in walks, multiple times in wild pitches (6 to be exact), never won a Cy Young Award, never led the league in WAR for pitchers.
Additional Notes: The argument for Jack Morris usually includes the phrase, "pitching to the score". As I understand it, this means that a pitcher is likely to let up when his team is ahead so he can save his best stuff for a game where he needs it. This is used to explain his high ERA. Is this a possibility? Certainly. Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated said, "he pitched to the score like the great ones do." However, the great ones that one would look at have much much better ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris so it seems like the great ones either did not "pitch to the score" or simply was better at it than Jack Morris, either way it does not bode well for Morris. Also, wouldn't pitching to the score be counter-productive? If you were winning a game 5-0 and you proceeded to give up a few runs because you were saving your best stuff, so the score is now 6-3. I am not a genius nor have I studied it but it would seem rather obvious that a team has a better likelihood of winning 5-0 instead of when the score is at 6-3. Further, if a pitcher was to give up a few runs then he would likely be taken out of the game and a lesser pitcher would have to come in with a closer score then before. Pitching to the score seems like a "bullshit dump" like Bill James likes to say.
Jack Morris was labeled a big game pitcher in large part because he won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. I don't know if that is quite true but we'll take a look.
I'll give you three pitchers and you tell me which pitcher you would rather have.
Pitcher A: 5-1, 2.47 ERA, 6 GS, 47.1 IP, 1.077 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9.
Pitcher B: 7-4, 3.80 ERA, 13 GS, 92.1 IP, 1.245 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9.
Pitcher C: 5-5, 4.19 ERA, 13 GS, 81.2 IP, 1.310 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9.
Pitcher A is Bert Blyleven.
Pitcher B is Jack Morris.
Pitcher C is Kevin Brown.
Brown's ERA is influenced by his last post-season start, moreso than Morris'. But back to Morris being a big-time pitcher, he was a great pitcher in the post-season half the time (1984 and 1991). The other half he was terrible (1987 and 1992). 1992 he was considered by his supporters to be the ace of the World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays. He went 0-1 6.57 ERA in the ALCS and 0-2 8.44 ERA in the World Series. Morris lost 3 games for the Blue Jays in the 1992 post-season. They lost 4 games in the post-season. If you are considering Morris the ace of the team that year, you are a fool. He wasn't a big game pitcher that year. In 1987, he pitched Game 2 of the 1987 ALCS, he lost to Bert Blyleven. Blyleven came back to pitch game 5, Morris did not. The Twins won in 5 games. It just doesn't seem like he was a big-game pitcher.
Finally, Heyman likes to point out that Blyleven wasn't considered the pitcher of his time, it was a revisionist history that has put him into the Hall of Fame. He points this out by saying Blyleven's MVP share was ranked 936th, highest finish 13th and his Cy Young career share is ranked 104th, highest finish 3rd. He says he was never even considered a top 2 pitcher in the league.
Well, Morris never finished higher than 3rd in the Cy Young vote either. Morris, too, was never considered a top 2 pitcher in his league. His highest finish was 3rd in both 1981 and 1983. Blyleven finished in the top 3, two times as well. Morris must have finished better in the MVP voting then because otherwise the argument makes no sense. Morris finished 13th twice in both 1991 and 1992. Blyleven finished 13th once.
The argument doesn't hold water to me.
Every argument to put Morris in the Hall of Fame is just not good enough. He was a fantastic player better at baseball then I will ever be at anything I do. But to say that he is worthy of the Hall of Fame is wrong. Sorry Jack, I never got to see you play but thank you for the 1991 World Series Championship. You were a great player but you were just below making it to the Hall of Fame.
Sorry.
But you had an awesome moustache.
Pros: 254 wins, won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series (arguably one of the best games of all-time), "ace" of 3 World Series Champions, 5 All-Star Appearances, led the league in wins twice, led the league in innings once, led the league once in strikeouts, once in complete games, once in shutouts. Had a fantastic moustache.
Cons: 105 ERA+ (just barely above average), not in the top 100 for 100 best pitchers in the New Bill James Historical Abstract, not in my top 100 either, 3.90 career ERA, one all-star season according to rWAR, 1 according to fWAR. No all-star seasons if averaged WAR. Never led the league in ERA, WHIP, ERA+. Led the league once in walks, multiple times in wild pitches (6 to be exact), never won a Cy Young Award, never led the league in WAR for pitchers.
Additional Notes: The argument for Jack Morris usually includes the phrase, "pitching to the score". As I understand it, this means that a pitcher is likely to let up when his team is ahead so he can save his best stuff for a game where he needs it. This is used to explain his high ERA. Is this a possibility? Certainly. Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated said, "he pitched to the score like the great ones do." However, the great ones that one would look at have much much better ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris so it seems like the great ones either did not "pitch to the score" or simply was better at it than Jack Morris, either way it does not bode well for Morris. Also, wouldn't pitching to the score be counter-productive? If you were winning a game 5-0 and you proceeded to give up a few runs because you were saving your best stuff, so the score is now 6-3. I am not a genius nor have I studied it but it would seem rather obvious that a team has a better likelihood of winning 5-0 instead of when the score is at 6-3. Further, if a pitcher was to give up a few runs then he would likely be taken out of the game and a lesser pitcher would have to come in with a closer score then before. Pitching to the score seems like a "bullshit dump" like Bill James likes to say.
Jack Morris was labeled a big game pitcher in large part because he won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. I don't know if that is quite true but we'll take a look.
I'll give you three pitchers and you tell me which pitcher you would rather have.
Pitcher A: 5-1, 2.47 ERA, 6 GS, 47.1 IP, 1.077 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9.
Pitcher B: 7-4, 3.80 ERA, 13 GS, 92.1 IP, 1.245 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9.
Pitcher C: 5-5, 4.19 ERA, 13 GS, 81.2 IP, 1.310 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9.
Pitcher A is Bert Blyleven.
Pitcher B is Jack Morris.
Pitcher C is Kevin Brown.
Brown's ERA is influenced by his last post-season start, moreso than Morris'. But back to Morris being a big-time pitcher, he was a great pitcher in the post-season half the time (1984 and 1991). The other half he was terrible (1987 and 1992). 1992 he was considered by his supporters to be the ace of the World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays. He went 0-1 6.57 ERA in the ALCS and 0-2 8.44 ERA in the World Series. Morris lost 3 games for the Blue Jays in the 1992 post-season. They lost 4 games in the post-season. If you are considering Morris the ace of the team that year, you are a fool. He wasn't a big game pitcher that year. In 1987, he pitched Game 2 of the 1987 ALCS, he lost to Bert Blyleven. Blyleven came back to pitch game 5, Morris did not. The Twins won in 5 games. It just doesn't seem like he was a big-game pitcher.
Finally, Heyman likes to point out that Blyleven wasn't considered the pitcher of his time, it was a revisionist history that has put him into the Hall of Fame. He points this out by saying Blyleven's MVP share was ranked 936th, highest finish 13th and his Cy Young career share is ranked 104th, highest finish 3rd. He says he was never even considered a top 2 pitcher in the league.
Well, Morris never finished higher than 3rd in the Cy Young vote either. Morris, too, was never considered a top 2 pitcher in his league. His highest finish was 3rd in both 1981 and 1983. Blyleven finished in the top 3, two times as well. Morris must have finished better in the MVP voting then because otherwise the argument makes no sense. Morris finished 13th twice in both 1991 and 1992. Blyleven finished 13th once.
The argument doesn't hold water to me.
Every argument to put Morris in the Hall of Fame is just not good enough. He was a fantastic player better at baseball then I will ever be at anything I do. But to say that he is worthy of the Hall of Fame is wrong. Sorry Jack, I never got to see you play but thank you for the 1991 World Series Championship. You were a great player but you were just below making it to the Hall of Fame.
Sorry.
But you had an awesome moustache.
Thoughts on the NBA Finals
I don't claim to be as good as a writer as Bill Simmons, Joe Posnanski, or Zach Lowe but I, too, have some thoughts on the results of the NBA finals.
1) Congratulations to Dirk and the rest of the Dallas Mavericks! Especially to Dirk and Jason Kidd who are two of my favorite players in the NBA currently.
2) To those lauding the Mavericks for playing as a team and winning thus proving that teams win championships and not just a collection of stars, why were you ever worried? If you truly believed this as a sports fan, there was no reason to be upset when Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh joined to play for the Heat because you knew they would not win. But the truth is, along the way everyone forgot this. As the Heat rolled into the finals, everyone thought, you know they might be able to pull this off. Everyone got so upset when Lebron left, when the Heat joined forces that we forgot that teams win championships. When they struggled at the beginning of the season we were happy because we thought they realized this championship thing wouldn't be so easy. But why would we leave our convictions and beliefs and have to doubt whether or not the Mavericks would win? We thought that the better team would win but we were still upset when Lebron went to the Heat but why should it affect us in the slightest? If we know that the greatest team would win and that a random collection of superstars weren't going to win, why did we spend the whole time rooting against them when we knew that they would lose?
3) That being said, if you were/are upset with Lebron joining the Heat then you fall into one of these categories thinking that:
a) Lebron was "teaming up" to gain an unfair competitive advantage
b) Lebron should be competing against his rivals, not playing with them.
c) Lebron was just trying to get the most money
d) Lebron was ruining his legacy
e) the Heat welcome party video was smug and whoever made it should lose.
f) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan unless he pulls off the Hitler moustache that Michael Jordan sports in his new Hanes commercials.
Let's address those points:
a) Lebron was "teaming up" to gain an unfair competitive advantage- well besides the fact that if we really believed that the best team would win this shouldn't be a problem with you because well look what I wrote above. Also, how is this any different then mid-level or close to retirement players joining teams that are close to winning a championship so that they can go out as a winner (see Karl Malone, all mid-level exception players who sign with competitors)
b) Lebron should be competing against his rivals, not playing with them. Well I guess that's true. Although again, it's not the first time this has happened. If you look at the history of basketball, you'll see several examples of this happening. Michael Jordan never did this but Michael Jordan was a freak of nature and Scottie Pippen was a rival to a certain extent. Pippen and Jordan played on the same team, while it wasn't MJ's choice he certainly played with a Hall of Famer. Pippen joined the ring chasing Rockets and Blazers choosing to play with rivals in pursuit of more rings. Barkley did similar things. The list goes on.
c) Lebron was just trying to get the most money. You're wrong if you thought that. Lebron passed on more money with the Cavaliers and probably had a greater marketing opportunity if he stayed or went to the New York Knicks. Also, there was a rumor of Lebron earning $50 million if he signed with a New York or Los Angeles team (excluding the Clippers, so basically the Knicks or Lakers).
d) Lebron was ruining his legacy- you're right. He could have stayed in Cleveland and transcended sports if he led the Cavs to a championship as Cleveland has been so long without a championship. Further, he was from the area and could have regarded as a hero for years to come. But if he failed, he would be remembered as a choke artist (well he still might be) or as someone who couldn't quite make it. Had he gone to New York he could have restored the basketball legacy there but arguably would have been in a similar situation that he was with the Heat where he would have been rooted against. If he went to Chicago he could have won more championships (I think that was the best situation for him, I mean Derrick Rose, Noah, and all of them) but he would not have escaped MJ's shadow so his legacy would still be ruined. If you're keeping score, each situation had a potential of him ruining his legacy.
e) the Heat welcome party video was smug and whoever made it should lose. That's true. Shouldn't the Mavericks have shown that video before the beginning of each of the finals home game? I think the fans would have gone crazy. I think Dirk would have gone crazy and pull an Under Armour, we must protect this house! move.
f) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan unless he pulls off the Hitler moustache that Michael Jordan sports in his new Hanes commercials. Is Michael Jordan trying to bring back this style of moustache? Does he think he can escape the curse of the Hitler moustache? Are we eventually going to refer to this moustache style as the Michael Jordan moustache? Regardless, Lebron would never be able to pull off this moustache.
4) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan. As an aside, if Delonte West really slept with Lebron's mother, then we're dealing with separate issues. Michael Jordan would have bet on which one of his teammates would have slept with his mom then probably would have slept with every other player's mother just to be sure he slept with the most.
5) Brian Cardinal, Mike Miller, who knew that former Grizzlies would be the random white players that the Mavericks and Heat threw out there?
1) Congratulations to Dirk and the rest of the Dallas Mavericks! Especially to Dirk and Jason Kidd who are two of my favorite players in the NBA currently.
2) To those lauding the Mavericks for playing as a team and winning thus proving that teams win championships and not just a collection of stars, why were you ever worried? If you truly believed this as a sports fan, there was no reason to be upset when Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh joined to play for the Heat because you knew they would not win. But the truth is, along the way everyone forgot this. As the Heat rolled into the finals, everyone thought, you know they might be able to pull this off. Everyone got so upset when Lebron left, when the Heat joined forces that we forgot that teams win championships. When they struggled at the beginning of the season we were happy because we thought they realized this championship thing wouldn't be so easy. But why would we leave our convictions and beliefs and have to doubt whether or not the Mavericks would win? We thought that the better team would win but we were still upset when Lebron went to the Heat but why should it affect us in the slightest? If we know that the greatest team would win and that a random collection of superstars weren't going to win, why did we spend the whole time rooting against them when we knew that they would lose?
3) That being said, if you were/are upset with Lebron joining the Heat then you fall into one of these categories thinking that:
a) Lebron was "teaming up" to gain an unfair competitive advantage
b) Lebron should be competing against his rivals, not playing with them.
c) Lebron was just trying to get the most money
d) Lebron was ruining his legacy
e) the Heat welcome party video was smug and whoever made it should lose.
f) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan unless he pulls off the Hitler moustache that Michael Jordan sports in his new Hanes commercials.
Let's address those points:
a) Lebron was "teaming up" to gain an unfair competitive advantage- well besides the fact that if we really believed that the best team would win this shouldn't be a problem with you because well look what I wrote above. Also, how is this any different then mid-level or close to retirement players joining teams that are close to winning a championship so that they can go out as a winner (see Karl Malone, all mid-level exception players who sign with competitors)
b) Lebron should be competing against his rivals, not playing with them. Well I guess that's true. Although again, it's not the first time this has happened. If you look at the history of basketball, you'll see several examples of this happening. Michael Jordan never did this but Michael Jordan was a freak of nature and Scottie Pippen was a rival to a certain extent. Pippen and Jordan played on the same team, while it wasn't MJ's choice he certainly played with a Hall of Famer. Pippen joined the ring chasing Rockets and Blazers choosing to play with rivals in pursuit of more rings. Barkley did similar things. The list goes on.
c) Lebron was just trying to get the most money. You're wrong if you thought that. Lebron passed on more money with the Cavaliers and probably had a greater marketing opportunity if he stayed or went to the New York Knicks. Also, there was a rumor of Lebron earning $50 million if he signed with a New York or Los Angeles team (excluding the Clippers, so basically the Knicks or Lakers).
d) Lebron was ruining his legacy- you're right. He could have stayed in Cleveland and transcended sports if he led the Cavs to a championship as Cleveland has been so long without a championship. Further, he was from the area and could have regarded as a hero for years to come. But if he failed, he would be remembered as a choke artist (well he still might be) or as someone who couldn't quite make it. Had he gone to New York he could have restored the basketball legacy there but arguably would have been in a similar situation that he was with the Heat where he would have been rooted against. If he went to Chicago he could have won more championships (I think that was the best situation for him, I mean Derrick Rose, Noah, and all of them) but he would not have escaped MJ's shadow so his legacy would still be ruined. If you're keeping score, each situation had a potential of him ruining his legacy.
e) the Heat welcome party video was smug and whoever made it should lose. That's true. Shouldn't the Mavericks have shown that video before the beginning of each of the finals home game? I think the fans would have gone crazy. I think Dirk would have gone crazy and pull an Under Armour, we must protect this house! move.
f) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan unless he pulls off the Hitler moustache that Michael Jordan sports in his new Hanes commercials. Is Michael Jordan trying to bring back this style of moustache? Does he think he can escape the curse of the Hitler moustache? Are we eventually going to refer to this moustache style as the Michael Jordan moustache? Regardless, Lebron would never be able to pull off this moustache.
4) Lebron will never be Michael Jordan. As an aside, if Delonte West really slept with Lebron's mother, then we're dealing with separate issues. Michael Jordan would have bet on which one of his teammates would have slept with his mom then probably would have slept with every other player's mother just to be sure he slept with the most.
5) Brian Cardinal, Mike Miller, who knew that former Grizzlies would be the random white players that the Mavericks and Heat threw out there?
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Who should you vote for? 2011 All-Star edition pt. 1 Up the Middle
Before every season, baseball writers talk about the strength up the middle of every team. This seems to imply that the only way a team ca win is to be strong up the middle (meaning catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field). While this is a viable theory, I don't think it's necessarily true. Without further ado, this is who you should vote for if you're voting for the all-star teams today or until next week.
American League:
Catcher:
1. Alex Avila Detroit Tigers- Averaged WAR: 2.1. .288/.349/.535/.380. In case you were curious, he was drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft by the Detroit Tigers. He has only played in the Major Leagues for three years and is having a great season at the perfect time, Mauer is injured, not a whole lot of other great catchers.
2. Matt Wieters Baltimore Orioles- Averaged WAR:1.5. .270/.330/.400/.324. He played college baseball at Georgia Tech and was drafted in the first round. His minor league numbers were so otherworldly that there were some websites promoting his ascent into a deity Chuck Norris style.
3. Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians- Averaged WAR: 1.4. .228/.362/.386/.336. He was traded by the Dodgers for Casey Blake so that the Indians would cover the rest of Blake's salary the year he was traded. Totally a fair trade, I mean anytime you need to get a mid-30's thirdbaseman, you always trade a potential franchise catcher.
4. Russell Martin New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 1.35. .238/.346/.439/.359. If you have been an avid reader of this blog, you know how much I've enjoyed Martin's season. However, he's been struggling the last couple of weeks and has dropped to 4th place in this space now.
5. Kurt Suzuki Oakland A's- Billy Beane told him to stay away from collisions at home plate to avoid injury, similar to the GM of the Jets to tell Mark Sanchez to avoid getting sacked because Tom Brady tore his ACL from a sack.
Second Base:
1. Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay Rays- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .259/.331/.474/.355. Took over the top spot from Kendrick this week. A fantastic player and can fill in around the field if need be. One of my favorite players to watch.
2. Howie Kendrick Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Averaged WAR: 2.25. .301/.366/.490/.376. Dropped out of the top spot finally. Kendrick has always been touted as a player who could compete for batting titles if healthy. He's batting over .300, at least, but not really competing for a batting title.
3. Ian Kinsler Texas Rangers- Averaged WAR: 2. .235/.356/.407/.352. Kinsler has a BABIP of .237 which is really low, second lowest that I can find among secondbasemen this year (just behind Brian Roberts). He kind of alternates betwen high BABIP's and low ones.
4. Dustin Pedroia Boston Red Sox-- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .247/.361/.338/.326. Pedroia has a higher OBP than Slugging Percentage, this is rare and it's getting rarer as the season gets longer.
5. Robinson Cano New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 1.55. .273/.314/.502/.355. I would have wagered that the All-Star Spot for American League secondbasemen would be between Pedroia and Cano for the next several years.
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez Chicago White Sox- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .295/.352/.439/.347. Dave Cameron author of Fangraphs mentioned in a chat that he thinks Alexei Ramirez is one of the more underrated players in the game today.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera Cleveland Indians- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .302/.353/.532/.391. The reason I place Ramirez ahead of Cabrera is that I trust fWAR a bit more than rWAR, fWAR has Ramirez at 2.9 and Cabrera at 2.3.
3. Jhonny Peralta Detroit Tigers- Averaged WAR: 2. .313/.372/.516/.380. The top 3 shortstops in the American League are all in the American League Central. While the Twins haven't had great shortstops they should have a shortstop above replacement players. I'm just bitter. But there is a great post from The Platoon Advantage that suggests that maybe it wasn't completely Bill Smith's fault. I'm inclined to believe them but Smith could have done a much better job.
4. Elvis Andrus Texas Rangers- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .284/.327/.364/.328. Out of the top 5 shortstops in the league, 3 are in the American League Central (two with at least minimal experience with the Cleveland Indians) and the other two were at least developed for the most part by the Atlanta Braves. Not exactly a good sign for the rest of the American League.
5. Yunel Escobar Toronto Blue Jays- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .286/.364/.438/.354. In an alternate universe, the Braves never traded Escobar for Gonzalez because of attitude problems and would be set at shortstop for years to come.
Center Field:
1. Denard Span Minnesota Twins- Averaged WAR: 2.95. .294/.361/.385/.338.
2. Curtis Granderson New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .263/.337/.570/.394.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury Boston Red Sox- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .307/.366/.475/.378.
4. Peter Bourjos Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Averaged WAR: 1.5. .245/.302/.384/.305
5. Melky Cabrera Kansas City Royals- Averaged WAR: 1.25. .273/.316/.441/.336.
Notes: I got tired of writing individual player notes plus I had an idea for my other blog so I need to hurry this up to get to my other idea before I forget. Bourjos makes his first appearnce on the top 5 list, he was mentioned by a lot of Angels fans as a reason that they could survive with Vernon Wells in the outfield/how excited they were to have such a great defensive outfield.
National League:
Catcher:
1. Chris Ianetta Colorado Rockies- Averaged WAR: 1.65. .231/.380/.456/.370.
2. Brian McCann Atlanta Braves- Averaged WAR: 1.6. .305/.376/.473/.363.
3. Buster Posey San Francisco Giants- Averaged WAR: 1.6. .284/.368/.389/.341.
4. Miguel Montero Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.55. .266/.357/.440/.359.
5. Yadier Molina St. Louis Cardinals- Averaged WAR: 1.5. .314/.368/.445/.345.
Notes: Posey is finally passed by other players. It's interesting that Ianetta is having such a good seson yet, it took him years to take control of the starting catcher spot in Colorado. Advance stats have shown that Ianetta is better then people would originally think.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Brewers- Averaged WAR: 2.25. .278/.354/.484/.368.
2. Danny Espinosa Washington Nationals- Averaged WAR: 1.7. .218/.317/.436/.336.
3. Brandon Phillips Cincinnati Reds- Averaged WAR: 1.4. .283/.346/.399/.335.
4. Neil Walker Pittsburgh Pirates- Averaged WAR: 1.25. .263/.332/.424/.335.
5. Kelly Johnson Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .229/.306/.458/.341.
Notes: Kelly Johnson is hurt the worst by my averaging between fWAR and rWAR. His fWAR is 1.5. Phillips is also hurt by my way of averaging the WAR's. Phillips fWAR is 2.0. His ranking does not get changed though as he is the 3rd best second base if you just use fWAR or if you average the two of them.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes New York Mets- Averaged WAR: 2.9. .341/.391/.516/.400.
2. Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .261/.335/.478/.351.
3. Stephen Drew Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.8. .289/.370/.438/.357.
4. Alex Gonzalez Atlanta Braves- Averaged WAR: 1.35. .266/.296/.391/.304.
5. Jamey Carroll Los Angeles Dodgers- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .304/.368/.364/.334.
6. Clint Barmes Houston Astros- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .219/.320/.344/.304.
Notes: Carroll is ranked slightly higher than Barmes based on fWAR but only by 0.1, so I allowed for a tie in this special case. Not that it matters, Reyes, Tulowitzki, and Drew are far and away the best shortstops in the National League.
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers- Averaged WAR: 3.25. .323/.402/.595/.432.
2. Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates- Averaged WAR: 3.2. .282/.376/.489/.383.
3. Drew Stubbs Cincinnati Reds-Averaged WAR: 2.35. .265/.334/.423/.350.
4. Colby Rasmus St. Louis Cardinals-Averaged WAR: 1.65. .265/.362/.434/.357.
5. Shane Victorino Philadelphia Phillies-Averaged WAR: 1.55. .270/.340/.472/.364.
Notes: Kemp or McCutchen would be solid selections for the center field all-star spot in the National League. I prefer Kemp just a bit more because his offense is better than McCutchen's. McCutchen has a better defense. McCutchen will make the all-star team as he is the best player on the Pirates and every single team gets an all-star bid. I just don't know if he's worthy of being the starter though.
American League:
Catcher:
1. Alex Avila Detroit Tigers- Averaged WAR: 2.1. .288/.349/.535/.380. In case you were curious, he was drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft by the Detroit Tigers. He has only played in the Major Leagues for three years and is having a great season at the perfect time, Mauer is injured, not a whole lot of other great catchers.
2. Matt Wieters Baltimore Orioles- Averaged WAR:1.5. .270/.330/.400/.324. He played college baseball at Georgia Tech and was drafted in the first round. His minor league numbers were so otherworldly that there were some websites promoting his ascent into a deity Chuck Norris style.
3. Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians- Averaged WAR: 1.4. .228/.362/.386/.336. He was traded by the Dodgers for Casey Blake so that the Indians would cover the rest of Blake's salary the year he was traded. Totally a fair trade, I mean anytime you need to get a mid-30's thirdbaseman, you always trade a potential franchise catcher.
4. Russell Martin New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 1.35. .238/.346/.439/.359. If you have been an avid reader of this blog, you know how much I've enjoyed Martin's season. However, he's been struggling the last couple of weeks and has dropped to 4th place in this space now.
5. Kurt Suzuki Oakland A's- Billy Beane told him to stay away from collisions at home plate to avoid injury, similar to the GM of the Jets to tell Mark Sanchez to avoid getting sacked because Tom Brady tore his ACL from a sack.
Second Base:
1. Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay Rays- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .259/.331/.474/.355. Took over the top spot from Kendrick this week. A fantastic player and can fill in around the field if need be. One of my favorite players to watch.
2. Howie Kendrick Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Averaged WAR: 2.25. .301/.366/.490/.376. Dropped out of the top spot finally. Kendrick has always been touted as a player who could compete for batting titles if healthy. He's batting over .300, at least, but not really competing for a batting title.
3. Ian Kinsler Texas Rangers- Averaged WAR: 2. .235/.356/.407/.352. Kinsler has a BABIP of .237 which is really low, second lowest that I can find among secondbasemen this year (just behind Brian Roberts). He kind of alternates betwen high BABIP's and low ones.
4. Dustin Pedroia Boston Red Sox-- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .247/.361/.338/.326. Pedroia has a higher OBP than Slugging Percentage, this is rare and it's getting rarer as the season gets longer.
5. Robinson Cano New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 1.55. .273/.314/.502/.355. I would have wagered that the All-Star Spot for American League secondbasemen would be between Pedroia and Cano for the next several years.
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez Chicago White Sox- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .295/.352/.439/.347. Dave Cameron author of Fangraphs mentioned in a chat that he thinks Alexei Ramirez is one of the more underrated players in the game today.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera Cleveland Indians- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .302/.353/.532/.391. The reason I place Ramirez ahead of Cabrera is that I trust fWAR a bit more than rWAR, fWAR has Ramirez at 2.9 and Cabrera at 2.3.
3. Jhonny Peralta Detroit Tigers- Averaged WAR: 2. .313/.372/.516/.380. The top 3 shortstops in the American League are all in the American League Central. While the Twins haven't had great shortstops they should have a shortstop above replacement players. I'm just bitter. But there is a great post from The Platoon Advantage that suggests that maybe it wasn't completely Bill Smith's fault. I'm inclined to believe them but Smith could have done a much better job.
4. Elvis Andrus Texas Rangers- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .284/.327/.364/.328. Out of the top 5 shortstops in the league, 3 are in the American League Central (two with at least minimal experience with the Cleveland Indians) and the other two were at least developed for the most part by the Atlanta Braves. Not exactly a good sign for the rest of the American League.
5. Yunel Escobar Toronto Blue Jays- Averaged WAR: 1.95. .286/.364/.438/.354. In an alternate universe, the Braves never traded Escobar for Gonzalez because of attitude problems and would be set at shortstop for years to come.
Center Field:
1. Denard Span Minnesota Twins- Averaged WAR: 2.95. .294/.361/.385/.338.
2. Curtis Granderson New York Yankees- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .263/.337/.570/.394.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury Boston Red Sox- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .307/.366/.475/.378.
4. Peter Bourjos Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Averaged WAR: 1.5. .245/.302/.384/.305
5. Melky Cabrera Kansas City Royals- Averaged WAR: 1.25. .273/.316/.441/.336.
Notes: I got tired of writing individual player notes plus I had an idea for my other blog so I need to hurry this up to get to my other idea before I forget. Bourjos makes his first appearnce on the top 5 list, he was mentioned by a lot of Angels fans as a reason that they could survive with Vernon Wells in the outfield/how excited they were to have such a great defensive outfield.
National League:
Catcher:
1. Chris Ianetta Colorado Rockies- Averaged WAR: 1.65. .231/.380/.456/.370.
2. Brian McCann Atlanta Braves- Averaged WAR: 1.6. .305/.376/.473/.363.
3. Buster Posey San Francisco Giants- Averaged WAR: 1.6. .284/.368/.389/.341.
4. Miguel Montero Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.55. .266/.357/.440/.359.
5. Yadier Molina St. Louis Cardinals- Averaged WAR: 1.5. .314/.368/.445/.345.
Notes: Posey is finally passed by other players. It's interesting that Ianetta is having such a good seson yet, it took him years to take control of the starting catcher spot in Colorado. Advance stats have shown that Ianetta is better then people would originally think.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Brewers- Averaged WAR: 2.25. .278/.354/.484/.368.
2. Danny Espinosa Washington Nationals- Averaged WAR: 1.7. .218/.317/.436/.336.
3. Brandon Phillips Cincinnati Reds- Averaged WAR: 1.4. .283/.346/.399/.335.
4. Neil Walker Pittsburgh Pirates- Averaged WAR: 1.25. .263/.332/.424/.335.
5. Kelly Johnson Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .229/.306/.458/.341.
Notes: Kelly Johnson is hurt the worst by my averaging between fWAR and rWAR. His fWAR is 1.5. Phillips is also hurt by my way of averaging the WAR's. Phillips fWAR is 2.0. His ranking does not get changed though as he is the 3rd best second base if you just use fWAR or if you average the two of them.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes New York Mets- Averaged WAR: 2.9. .341/.391/.516/.400.
2. Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies- Averaged WAR: 2.35. .261/.335/.478/.351.
3. Stephen Drew Arizona Diamondbacks- Averaged WAR: 1.8. .289/.370/.438/.357.
4. Alex Gonzalez Atlanta Braves- Averaged WAR: 1.35. .266/.296/.391/.304.
5. Jamey Carroll Los Angeles Dodgers- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .304/.368/.364/.334.
6. Clint Barmes Houston Astros- Averaged WAR: 1.15. .219/.320/.344/.304.
Notes: Carroll is ranked slightly higher than Barmes based on fWAR but only by 0.1, so I allowed for a tie in this special case. Not that it matters, Reyes, Tulowitzki, and Drew are far and away the best shortstops in the National League.
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers- Averaged WAR: 3.25. .323/.402/.595/.432.
2. Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates- Averaged WAR: 3.2. .282/.376/.489/.383.
3. Drew Stubbs Cincinnati Reds-Averaged WAR: 2.35. .265/.334/.423/.350.
4. Colby Rasmus St. Louis Cardinals-Averaged WAR: 1.65. .265/.362/.434/.357.
5. Shane Victorino Philadelphia Phillies-Averaged WAR: 1.55. .270/.340/.472/.364.
Notes: Kemp or McCutchen would be solid selections for the center field all-star spot in the National League. I prefer Kemp just a bit more because his offense is better than McCutchen's. McCutchen has a better defense. McCutchen will make the all-star team as he is the best player on the Pirates and every single team gets an all-star bid. I just don't know if he's worthy of being the starter though.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
The MLB Draft
Every year I like to pretend I have a certain pick in each round of the MLB draft and see if I could do a better job of drafting then Major League teams. I started this when I used to subscribe to Baseball America and saw that one of their authors did the same thing. I usually don't do that well mainly because I do not have access to the same scouting expertise that teams do. On the other hand, I get to pretend that I don't have a budget to work with. This year, the random number is 15.
1 (15)- Sonny Gray RHP Vanderbilt. I had heard he had the talent to go in the top 10. I think he has the stuff to be a starter. Keith Law agrees with me. Apparently Billy Beane thinks Gray will be a starter too, judging on a text he sent to Jim Bowden. I like Gray a little bit better than Barnes, either case, I think both of them are going to be pretty good pitchers.
2 (75)- Matt Purke LHP TCU. I understand that he's been injured and that his velocity is down this year. Still, I think that he can recover and make this pick worthwhile. Even if he doesn't, I'm not running a real team so I don't have to worry about him not making. I think Purke is a top 10 talent.
3 (105)- Jordan Weems C Columbus (Ga.) H.S.
4 (136)- Jason King 3b Kansas State
5 (166)- Mark Pope 3B/RHP Georgia Tech
1 (15)- Sonny Gray RHP Vanderbilt. I had heard he had the talent to go in the top 10. I think he has the stuff to be a starter. Keith Law agrees with me. Apparently Billy Beane thinks Gray will be a starter too, judging on a text he sent to Jim Bowden. I like Gray a little bit better than Barnes, either case, I think both of them are going to be pretty good pitchers.
2 (75)- Matt Purke LHP TCU. I understand that he's been injured and that his velocity is down this year. Still, I think that he can recover and make this pick worthwhile. Even if he doesn't, I'm not running a real team so I don't have to worry about him not making. I think Purke is a top 10 talent.
3 (105)- Jordan Weems C Columbus (Ga.) H.S.
4 (136)- Jason King 3b Kansas State
5 (166)- Mark Pope 3B/RHP Georgia Tech
Friday, June 3, 2011
The Problem With Watching College Baseball
Anytime I watch College Baseball, the following situation arises. A runner gets on first base with nobody out. This happened today in the University of Miami vs. Jacksonville game. The second batter in the lineup from Miami got on base. Jim Morris, the coach of Miami, had his third batter try to lay down a bunt. The same third batter had hit 21 homeruns during the season. The announcers were talking about how it's crazy to think that they would make the third batter try and bunt but that it is necessary because of the offensive environment in college baseball. Well despite this offensive environment, the third batter had hit 21 homeruns during the season. Why take the bat out of his hand by forcing him to lay down a bunt? Well after trying to lay down a bunt twice, including one that went foul, there was a wild pitch and the runner was able to advance to second base standing up. It was the 23rd stolen base by that runner. Eventually, I believe the third batter walked. The fourth batter was the next one up and he too, was ordered to bunt despite being a cleanup hitter and even the announcers saying something to the effect of it's been years since this guy was asked to bunt. After trying a couple of times to bunt (which he was unable to do) he got a single so it was bases loaded with nobody out. Instead of trying to get this situation the Miami Coach was willing to sacrifice to either have a runner on second with one out or runners on first and third one out. I say that because the third basemen was in the batters' box waiting to pick up the bunt from the cleanup hitter it would have gotten one of the runners out; it may have been a double play. It would have made more sense to do a fake bunt and swing away or just swing away all together. This strategy always comes up in college baseball games. It always gets on my nerves, I can't stand hearing announcers talk about sacrifices and everything.
National League Outfield
Left Field:
1. Ryan Braun- Braun originally played shortstop in college, his defense was such a problem that he eventually moved to Left Field in the Major Leagues. The Brewers also have Mat Gamel who has had defensive problems at third base. This doesn't seem like a concern for them. Averaged WAR: 2.75. .306/.402/.563/.427.
2. Matt Holliday- It would be amazing if the Holliday contract is what keeps the Cardinals from re-signing Pujols. Averaged WAR: 2.15. .342/.433/.542/.423
3. Gerardo Parra- The Diamondbacks have just random players doing well, Parra is one of them. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .272/.348/.386/.323
4. Logan Morrison- apparently has a very interesting Twitter feed. Averaged WAR: 1.35. .317/.401/.571/.416
5. Allen Craig- doesn't even have the whitest sounding name on his own team. He is behind Skip Schumaker, Jon Jay, and Nick Punto in that category. Averaged WAR: 1.35. .347/.420/.551/.432
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp- while not a solid defensive centerfielder, is having a pretty good season offensively and deserves to be rewarded for such. Averaged WAR: 2.35. .306/.382/.545/.406
2. Andrew McCutchen- you would think that with all of the seasons of futility, the Pirates would be full of home-grown stars. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .260/.358/.452/.364.
3. Drew Stubbs- I didn't think he would be this good when I watched him play college baseball. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .253/.323/.395/.333
4. Colby Rasmus- apparently got in a tussle with Tony La Russa. I wonder how hard it is to get along with Tony LaRussa. I actually wonder about this sometimes. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .279/.378/.461/.374
5. Shane Victorino- the flying Hawaiian, the answer to such trivia questions as who are some prominent Rule V draftees, along with Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, and Dan Uggla. Really the only reason casual fans even care about the Rule V draft. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.343/.503/.378
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman- I didn't think Berkman could even handle playing the outfield anymore. I think Berkman is a Hall of Famer (it's my blog, I can make blanket statements like this without backing it up right away). Averaged WAR: 2.15. .329/.449/.595/.435
2. Hunter Pence- Random Houston Astros fact of the day, Pence is pretty good. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .315/.360/.498/.377
3. Carlos Beltran- playing for the Mets currently, will probably get traded, will probably help the team he gets traded to, to the playoffs and will probably make more money on his next contract then I will for the rest of my life. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .288/.374/.534/.391.
4. Mike Stanton- The Marlins always seem to have good homegrown players, they're the opposite of the Pirates. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .267/.347/.568/.392
5. Jay Bruce- in a recent draft by ESPN experts on who would you select to build your franchise around, Bruce did not get selected. Some people have regarded this as a travesty. Averaged WAR: 1.6. .292/.355/.580/.402.
1. Ryan Braun- Braun originally played shortstop in college, his defense was such a problem that he eventually moved to Left Field in the Major Leagues. The Brewers also have Mat Gamel who has had defensive problems at third base. This doesn't seem like a concern for them. Averaged WAR: 2.75. .306/.402/.563/.427.
2. Matt Holliday- It would be amazing if the Holliday contract is what keeps the Cardinals from re-signing Pujols. Averaged WAR: 2.15. .342/.433/.542/.423
3. Gerardo Parra- The Diamondbacks have just random players doing well, Parra is one of them. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .272/.348/.386/.323
4. Logan Morrison- apparently has a very interesting Twitter feed. Averaged WAR: 1.35. .317/.401/.571/.416
5. Allen Craig- doesn't even have the whitest sounding name on his own team. He is behind Skip Schumaker, Jon Jay, and Nick Punto in that category. Averaged WAR: 1.35. .347/.420/.551/.432
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp- while not a solid defensive centerfielder, is having a pretty good season offensively and deserves to be rewarded for such. Averaged WAR: 2.35. .306/.382/.545/.406
2. Andrew McCutchen- you would think that with all of the seasons of futility, the Pirates would be full of home-grown stars. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .260/.358/.452/.364.
3. Drew Stubbs- I didn't think he would be this good when I watched him play college baseball. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .253/.323/.395/.333
4. Colby Rasmus- apparently got in a tussle with Tony La Russa. I wonder how hard it is to get along with Tony LaRussa. I actually wonder about this sometimes. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .279/.378/.461/.374
5. Shane Victorino- the flying Hawaiian, the answer to such trivia questions as who are some prominent Rule V draftees, along with Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, and Dan Uggla. Really the only reason casual fans even care about the Rule V draft. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.343/.503/.378
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman- I didn't think Berkman could even handle playing the outfield anymore. I think Berkman is a Hall of Famer (it's my blog, I can make blanket statements like this without backing it up right away). Averaged WAR: 2.15. .329/.449/.595/.435
2. Hunter Pence- Random Houston Astros fact of the day, Pence is pretty good. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .315/.360/.498/.377
3. Carlos Beltran- playing for the Mets currently, will probably get traded, will probably help the team he gets traded to, to the playoffs and will probably make more money on his next contract then I will for the rest of my life. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .288/.374/.534/.391.
4. Mike Stanton- The Marlins always seem to have good homegrown players, they're the opposite of the Pirates. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .267/.347/.568/.392
5. Jay Bruce- in a recent draft by ESPN experts on who would you select to build your franchise around, Bruce did not get selected. Some people have regarded this as a travesty. Averaged WAR: 1.6. .292/.355/.580/.402.
National League All-Star Voting Corner Infield Spots
1. Joey Votto- Votto is trying to become the greatest baseball player from Canada. Averaged WAR: 2.9. .338/.468/.532/.431.
2. Gaby Sanchez- He has an awesome moustache, it's up there with Carl Pavano's. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .316/.394/.510/.394.
3. Prince Fielder- Not to bash the Ryan Howard extension, well maybe. But Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Howard were all going to hit the free agent market at the same time. There really wasn't that many big markets for them to choose from basically you had the Cubs, Orioles (maybe), Phillies, Red Sox, and maybe the Cardinals. The Cubs probably would have (and possibly will) gone after Pujols hard because they would like to stick it to their rivals and the Cardinals would have (and will) offered the world to keep Pujols. The Red Sox would have gotten Gonzalez (maybe Pujols instead but this is my hypothetical). I don't know how serious the offers would have been from the Orioles. But basically the Phillies had to choose between Fielder and Howard and they decided that Howard was their best choice instead of waiting for the market to decide. I think Fielder is better but that's just me (well me and every relevant stat besides RBI's). Averaged WAR: 1.8. .291/.390/.534/.395.
4. Todd Helton- who is going to be the first Rockie Hall of Famer? Larry Walker deserves it but if he doesn't get in, I don't think Helton does either. This leads me to believe it will be Tulo if he keeps it up. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .306/.371/.510/.381.
5. Ike Davis- Coming out of college, I actually liked Brett Wallace (his teammate) more than Davis. So far, Davis is winning. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .302/.383/.543/.395.
Third Base:
1. Ryan Roberts- I didn't know who he was before this season. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .271/.377/.471/.378.
2. Pablo Sandoval- He kind of dissappeared last year, having a much better season this year. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .313/.374/.530/.390.
3. Placido Polanco- I'm running out of comments for players. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .319/.367/.403/.345.
4. David Freese- traded for Jim Edmonds, doesn't it seem like players who are traded in the smaller deals seem to be better then those involved in blockbuster trades? I have no idea if that's true, it might be selection bias. Averaged WAR: 0.9. .356/.394/.471/.382.
5. Chase Headley- went to the University of Tennessee, was supposed to be the first position star player that the Padres produced. Averaged WAR: 0.85. .275/.380/.374/.342.
I have no logical reason for choosing Headley over Greg Dobbs, I just like the fact that Headley is walking more than him. This spot might change next week.
2. Gaby Sanchez- He has an awesome moustache, it's up there with Carl Pavano's. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .316/.394/.510/.394.
3. Prince Fielder- Not to bash the Ryan Howard extension, well maybe. But Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Howard were all going to hit the free agent market at the same time. There really wasn't that many big markets for them to choose from basically you had the Cubs, Orioles (maybe), Phillies, Red Sox, and maybe the Cardinals. The Cubs probably would have (and possibly will) gone after Pujols hard because they would like to stick it to their rivals and the Cardinals would have (and will) offered the world to keep Pujols. The Red Sox would have gotten Gonzalez (maybe Pujols instead but this is my hypothetical). I don't know how serious the offers would have been from the Orioles. But basically the Phillies had to choose between Fielder and Howard and they decided that Howard was their best choice instead of waiting for the market to decide. I think Fielder is better but that's just me (well me and every relevant stat besides RBI's). Averaged WAR: 1.8. .291/.390/.534/.395.
4. Todd Helton- who is going to be the first Rockie Hall of Famer? Larry Walker deserves it but if he doesn't get in, I don't think Helton does either. This leads me to believe it will be Tulo if he keeps it up. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .306/.371/.510/.381.
5. Ike Davis- Coming out of college, I actually liked Brett Wallace (his teammate) more than Davis. So far, Davis is winning. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .302/.383/.543/.395.
Third Base:
1. Ryan Roberts- I didn't know who he was before this season. Averaged WAR: 1.85. .271/.377/.471/.378.
2. Pablo Sandoval- He kind of dissappeared last year, having a much better season this year. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .313/.374/.530/.390.
3. Placido Polanco- I'm running out of comments for players. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .319/.367/.403/.345.
4. David Freese- traded for Jim Edmonds, doesn't it seem like players who are traded in the smaller deals seem to be better then those involved in blockbuster trades? I have no idea if that's true, it might be selection bias. Averaged WAR: 0.9. .356/.394/.471/.382.
5. Chase Headley- went to the University of Tennessee, was supposed to be the first position star player that the Padres produced. Averaged WAR: 0.85. .275/.380/.374/.342.
I have no logical reason for choosing Headley over Greg Dobbs, I just like the fact that Headley is walking more than him. This spot might change next week.
National League All-Star Voting Catcher, 2B, and Shortstop
Catcher:
1. Buster Posey- he's out for the year with an injury. Brian Sabean called the play by Marlins player Scott Cousins "malicious", I don't think it was malicious. I don't think it was a particularly clean play but it's interesting that there was a collision the other day and nobody claimed it was malicious or anything, just described as part of the game. It's just interesting. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.368/.389/.341.
2. Chris Ianetta- I don't think WAR quantifies catcher defense well. Do I have any idea how important that defense is to the rest of the team? No. I don't think anyone does really. So given that, I have to look at who is better offensively. I think wOBA sums up the offensive side nicely so that's where they get the nod when it is tied. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .235/.379/.456/.371.
3. Brian McCann- I think he is one of the best catchers in the Majors and is turning into a likely Hall of Fame candidate. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .309/.374/.473/.364.
4. Miguel Montero- the Arizona Diamondbacks are surprising a lot of people, part of the reason for this is that their players are not superstars but they're not bad either. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .276/.360/.454/.357.
5. Ramon Hernandez- crazy, he ranks just above Yadier Molina. He's not a superstar but a good player, nonetheless. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .308/.357/.538/.381.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks- normally this spot would be reserved for Chase Utley, but Weeks has had a marvelous season thus far and deserves the starting spot. Averaged WAR: 2.2. .291/.365/.502/.379.
2. Danny Espinosa- rWAR and fWAR disagrees a lot on terms of the value of second basemen, it is more noticable here then really any other position. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .219/.317/.455/.341.
3. Brandon Phillips- he is hurt the most by the disparity between the two (well technically Kelly Johnson is, but my hyperbolic example was working well) , it seems that fangraphs has his defense being better then BaseballReference does. That's why I'm trying to average the two so the disparity isn't as great. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .290/.353/.410/.342.
4. Neil Walker- BaseballReference likes Walker more than Fangraphs. Walker is solid, I guess, he's a good regular probably not going to be an all-star really but a good regular. Averaged WAR: 1.25. .273/.336/.431/.339.
5. Freddy Sanchez- remember when Sanchez won a batting title and there was all these stories about him and where he came from? Baseball America talked about him being the 30th ranked prospect in the Red Sox system only because they were looking for somebody at his position. Averaged WAR: 1. .296/.338/.418/.328.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes- by far the best shortstop playing right now in New York. Derek Jeter, not as good. Reyes was told by his owner, sounds like Forty Million Dollar Slaves, that he is not worth the money he is likely trying to get this off-season. Averaged WAR: 2.3.
2. Troy Tulowitzki- Tulowitzki is always fun to wach and got a lot of attention as a possible MVP candidate last year. Averaged WAR: 2.05.
3. Stephen Drew- When the San Diego Padres had the number one overall pick, Baseball America did a feature article on how they came about to drafting Matt Bush. They ultimately decided that Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver were not going to be worth the money that they were going to get paid to to be the number one overall pick. The Padres decided it would be a better investment of ~3 Million Dollars and the rest of the money spent on a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic. Doesn't seem like a good investment as of yet. Averaged WAR: 1.5.
4. Alex Gonzalez- Alex Gonzalez and Yunel Escobar were traded for each other, both rank as a top 5 shortstop in their leagues this year, except Gonzalez is much older. Averaged WAR: 1.35.
5. Clint Barmes- Is there another player on this list that is less exciting than Barmes? I remember when he was the leading candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year a few years ago and he injured himself. There was a controversy because it was found out that he injured himself carrying deer meat from Todd Helton, I believe. Averaged WAR: 0.95.
1. Buster Posey- he's out for the year with an injury. Brian Sabean called the play by Marlins player Scott Cousins "malicious", I don't think it was malicious. I don't think it was a particularly clean play but it's interesting that there was a collision the other day and nobody claimed it was malicious or anything, just described as part of the game. It's just interesting. Averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.368/.389/.341.
2. Chris Ianetta- I don't think WAR quantifies catcher defense well. Do I have any idea how important that defense is to the rest of the team? No. I don't think anyone does really. So given that, I have to look at who is better offensively. I think wOBA sums up the offensive side nicely so that's where they get the nod when it is tied. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .235/.379/.456/.371.
3. Brian McCann- I think he is one of the best catchers in the Majors and is turning into a likely Hall of Fame candidate. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .309/.374/.473/.364.
4. Miguel Montero- the Arizona Diamondbacks are surprising a lot of people, part of the reason for this is that their players are not superstars but they're not bad either. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .276/.360/.454/.357.
5. Ramon Hernandez- crazy, he ranks just above Yadier Molina. He's not a superstar but a good player, nonetheless. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .308/.357/.538/.381.
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks- normally this spot would be reserved for Chase Utley, but Weeks has had a marvelous season thus far and deserves the starting spot. Averaged WAR: 2.2. .291/.365/.502/.379.
2. Danny Espinosa- rWAR and fWAR disagrees a lot on terms of the value of second basemen, it is more noticable here then really any other position. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .219/.317/.455/.341.
3. Brandon Phillips- he is hurt the most by the disparity between the two (well technically Kelly Johnson is, but my hyperbolic example was working well) , it seems that fangraphs has his defense being better then BaseballReference does. That's why I'm trying to average the two so the disparity isn't as great. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .290/.353/.410/.342.
4. Neil Walker- BaseballReference likes Walker more than Fangraphs. Walker is solid, I guess, he's a good regular probably not going to be an all-star really but a good regular. Averaged WAR: 1.25. .273/.336/.431/.339.
5. Freddy Sanchez- remember when Sanchez won a batting title and there was all these stories about him and where he came from? Baseball America talked about him being the 30th ranked prospect in the Red Sox system only because they were looking for somebody at his position. Averaged WAR: 1. .296/.338/.418/.328.
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes- by far the best shortstop playing right now in New York. Derek Jeter, not as good. Reyes was told by his owner, sounds like Forty Million Dollar Slaves, that he is not worth the money he is likely trying to get this off-season. Averaged WAR: 2.3.
2. Troy Tulowitzki- Tulowitzki is always fun to wach and got a lot of attention as a possible MVP candidate last year. Averaged WAR: 2.05.
3. Stephen Drew- When the San Diego Padres had the number one overall pick, Baseball America did a feature article on how they came about to drafting Matt Bush. They ultimately decided that Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver were not going to be worth the money that they were going to get paid to to be the number one overall pick. The Padres decided it would be a better investment of ~3 Million Dollars and the rest of the money spent on a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic. Doesn't seem like a good investment as of yet. Averaged WAR: 1.5.
4. Alex Gonzalez- Alex Gonzalez and Yunel Escobar were traded for each other, both rank as a top 5 shortstop in their leagues this year, except Gonzalez is much older. Averaged WAR: 1.35.
5. Clint Barmes- Is there another player on this list that is less exciting than Barmes? I remember when he was the leading candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year a few years ago and he injured himself. There was a controversy because it was found out that he injured himself carrying deer meat from Todd Helton, I believe. Averaged WAR: 0.95.
American League All-Star Voting DH
1. David Ortiz- he always seems like he is going to have a down year then he rebounds. Averaged WAR: 1.7. .313/.382/.582/.417
2. Michael Young- I would have wagered a lot of money that he would have been on the Rockies by now. He won't get traded anymore, he's a 10/5 player now (without researching it, I'd assume that he had a no-trade clause before). Averaged WAR: 1.4. .336/.376/.486/.376.
3. Travis Hafner- I keep rooting for Hafner because he's fun to watch. I wish he would have stayed healthy his whole career (injuries are kind of depressing for nice players). Averaged WAR: 1.2. .345/.409/.549/.409.
4. Billy Butler- this one time when he was in Omaha, playing for the O-Royals (formerly the Omaha Royals) on a Thirsty Thursday ($1 beers) he hit a grand slam to cap a rally. We (meaning the 500 fans who were there) gave him a standing ovation. My friend went down after the game to get an autograph from Billy and he gave him one. Good times. Averaged WAR: 0.95. .292/.392/.421/.355.
5. Bobby Abreu- everyone always says that stat-heads will eventually elect Bobby Abreu to the hall of fame...I don't really know that's wrong with that, there's certainly worse players in the Hall of Fame than Abreu. Averaged WAR: 0.95. .275/.388/.372/.349.
2. Michael Young- I would have wagered a lot of money that he would have been on the Rockies by now. He won't get traded anymore, he's a 10/5 player now (without researching it, I'd assume that he had a no-trade clause before). Averaged WAR: 1.4. .336/.376/.486/.376.
3. Travis Hafner- I keep rooting for Hafner because he's fun to watch. I wish he would have stayed healthy his whole career (injuries are kind of depressing for nice players). Averaged WAR: 1.2. .345/.409/.549/.409.
4. Billy Butler- this one time when he was in Omaha, playing for the O-Royals (formerly the Omaha Royals) on a Thirsty Thursday ($1 beers) he hit a grand slam to cap a rally. We (meaning the 500 fans who were there) gave him a standing ovation. My friend went down after the game to get an autograph from Billy and he gave him one. Good times. Averaged WAR: 0.95. .292/.392/.421/.355.
5. Bobby Abreu- everyone always says that stat-heads will eventually elect Bobby Abreu to the hall of fame...I don't really know that's wrong with that, there's certainly worse players in the Hall of Fame than Abreu. Averaged WAR: 0.95. .275/.388/.372/.349.
All-Star Voting American League Outfielders
I prefer there to be a representative from each outfield spot so that there is a left fielder, centerfielder, right fielder. This way the outfield defense would not be so atrocious as having all corner outfielders or so. I'm basing the positions on where Fangraphs places them.
Left Field:
1. Alex Gordon- former top prospect was not very good last year and now deserves an all-star appearance...I have not been afraid of expressing of how much I am rooting for him. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .288/.352/.487/.368.
2. Michael Brantley- finally some return for the Indians for the CC Sabathia trade! The stories of the trades that have built these Indians have been written by both si.com and espn.com, launching on consecutive days. Both of those websites always seem to run the same stories whether it is on the same day or consecutive days. It always seems rather odd that they can try and come up with unique takes on the same situation. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .281/.345/.402/.333.
3. Corey Patterson- was once a bust, is starting to turn it around. Probably should have been a better player then he has been in his career. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .291/.320/.450/.334.
4. Brett Gardner- he's far lower in the rankings then the other Yankees, which is a shame as he is having a better season then some of them. Averaged WAR: 1.2. .248/.329/.379/.315.
5. Josh Hamilton- 5th best leftfielder despite only playing 21 games. Averaged WAR: 0.6. .286/.337/.440/.341.
Centerfield:
1. Denard Span- been having a fantastic year for the Twins who have had to deal with injuries to Mauer and Morneau. He took over this spot from Granderson. Averaged WAR: 2.9. .297/.366/.378/.338.
2. Curtis Granderson- having a great season for the Yankees, it only cost them Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, always make that trade. Averaged WAR: 2.6. .278/.348/.612/.415.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury- remember when the Twins were going to trade Johan Santana for Ellsbury, Clay Bucholz, and another? Yeah, I remember that...Averaged WAR: 1.8. .292/.360/.452/.368
4. Adam Jones- it's amazing that Jones was part of the package that landed Erik Bedard and all the Twins could get was Humber, Mulvey, Slowey, and Guerra....I'm feeling bitter about that trade today. Averaged WAR: 1.25.
5. Coco Crisp- I have Crisp higher than Bourjos because I don't know if WAR properly quantifies defense so I'll give the tie to a slightly better offensive player. I'll live with the consequences it's not like either of them are better than Span or Granderson. Averaged WAR: 1.1. .272/.307/.415/.325.
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista- who else could possibly be the all-star right fielder? I don't even know what to say. Averaged WAR: 4.9. .360/.502/.773/.553. Look at those numbers again.
2. Matt Joyce- second best right fielder in the American League, too bad he is playing the same position as the best player in the Major Leagues. Averaged WAR: 3.25. .364/.423/.642/.457. Deserves an all-star nod.
3. Carlos Quentin- Having a solid season so far, if it wasn't for Joyce and Bautista Quentin might deserve a spot on the all-star team. Averaged WAR: 1.7. .258/.351/.545/.387.
4. Jeff Francoeur- I still like Francouer, I think he's going to get a lot of votes because he's white, if that offends people, oh well, he shouldn't be in the top 5 in voting at any time. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .286/.332/.502/.365.
5. Brent Lillibridge- Fangraphs wrote an article about him. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .308/.367/.662/.436.
Left Field:
1. Alex Gordon- former top prospect was not very good last year and now deserves an all-star appearance...I have not been afraid of expressing of how much I am rooting for him. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .288/.352/.487/.368.
2. Michael Brantley- finally some return for the Indians for the CC Sabathia trade! The stories of the trades that have built these Indians have been written by both si.com and espn.com, launching on consecutive days. Both of those websites always seem to run the same stories whether it is on the same day or consecutive days. It always seems rather odd that they can try and come up with unique takes on the same situation. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .281/.345/.402/.333.
3. Corey Patterson- was once a bust, is starting to turn it around. Probably should have been a better player then he has been in his career. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .291/.320/.450/.334.
4. Brett Gardner- he's far lower in the rankings then the other Yankees, which is a shame as he is having a better season then some of them. Averaged WAR: 1.2. .248/.329/.379/.315.
5. Josh Hamilton- 5th best leftfielder despite only playing 21 games. Averaged WAR: 0.6. .286/.337/.440/.341.
Centerfield:
1. Denard Span- been having a fantastic year for the Twins who have had to deal with injuries to Mauer and Morneau. He took over this spot from Granderson. Averaged WAR: 2.9. .297/.366/.378/.338.
2. Curtis Granderson- having a great season for the Yankees, it only cost them Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, always make that trade. Averaged WAR: 2.6. .278/.348/.612/.415.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury- remember when the Twins were going to trade Johan Santana for Ellsbury, Clay Bucholz, and another? Yeah, I remember that...Averaged WAR: 1.8. .292/.360/.452/.368
4. Adam Jones- it's amazing that Jones was part of the package that landed Erik Bedard and all the Twins could get was Humber, Mulvey, Slowey, and Guerra....I'm feeling bitter about that trade today. Averaged WAR: 1.25.
5. Coco Crisp- I have Crisp higher than Bourjos because I don't know if WAR properly quantifies defense so I'll give the tie to a slightly better offensive player. I'll live with the consequences it's not like either of them are better than Span or Granderson. Averaged WAR: 1.1. .272/.307/.415/.325.
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista- who else could possibly be the all-star right fielder? I don't even know what to say. Averaged WAR: 4.9. .360/.502/.773/.553. Look at those numbers again.
2. Matt Joyce- second best right fielder in the American League, too bad he is playing the same position as the best player in the Major Leagues. Averaged WAR: 3.25. .364/.423/.642/.457. Deserves an all-star nod.
3. Carlos Quentin- Having a solid season so far, if it wasn't for Joyce and Bautista Quentin might deserve a spot on the all-star team. Averaged WAR: 1.7. .258/.351/.545/.387.
4. Jeff Francoeur- I still like Francouer, I think he's going to get a lot of votes because he's white, if that offends people, oh well, he shouldn't be in the top 5 in voting at any time. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .286/.332/.502/.365.
5. Brent Lillibridge- Fangraphs wrote an article about him. Averaged WAR: 1.3. .308/.367/.662/.436.
American League Third Basemen
1. Alex Rodriguez- his cousin was near the team again; expect a spike in the power numbers. Averaged WAR: 1.95. .292/.361/.484/.373.
2. Kevin Youkilis- I personally like Youkilis more than A-Rod but I guess A-Rod is slightly better. Averaged WAR: 1.9. .254/.377/.475/.376
3. Adrian Beltre- He's only good in contract years, oh wait, it's not a contract year? Averaged WAR: 1.85. .247/.297/.457/.327.
4. Maicer Izturis- He's listed on the all-star ballot as a third baseman , Fangraphs does not have him listed there. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .285/.354/.414/.352.
5. Evan Longoria- would rank higher if he was healthy. He's the fifth best third baseman in the league in only 30 games...pretty impressive. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .243/.359/.439/.351
2. Kevin Youkilis- I personally like Youkilis more than A-Rod but I guess A-Rod is slightly better. Averaged WAR: 1.9. .254/.377/.475/.376
3. Adrian Beltre- He's only good in contract years, oh wait, it's not a contract year? Averaged WAR: 1.85. .247/.297/.457/.327.
4. Maicer Izturis- He's listed on the all-star ballot as a third baseman , Fangraphs does not have him listed there. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .285/.354/.414/.352.
5. Evan Longoria- would rank higher if he was healthy. He's the fifth best third baseman in the league in only 30 games...pretty impressive. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .243/.359/.439/.351
All-Star Voting American League Middle Infield
Let's begin.
Second Base:
1. Howie Kendrick- injured for some of the season, still having a great season. Averaged WAR: 2.55. .322/.388/.520/.397.
2. Ben Zobrist- he should probably be on the all-star team as a super-sub just kind of filling in everywhere. Averaged WAR: 2. .246/.325/.473/.350.
3. Ian Kinsler- apparently transferred out of Arizona State because he lost the second base job to Dustin Pedroia, according to Michael Schur, aka Ken Tremendous from FireJoeMorgan fame. Averaged WAR: 1.75. .233/.351/.413/.351.
4. Dustin Pedroia- We are the same size. Pedroia is about 983098493084 times the baseball player I ever was, if we were walking on the street, we might get confused. If we were facing a 90 MPH fastball, nobody would get us confused. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .245/.353/.335/.323.
5. Robinson Cano- don't really have a comment here. It feels like it's going to be a battle between Pedroia and Cano for the starting 2B spot on the American League All-Star team for the next several years. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .284/.324/.514/.364.
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez- I like to watch Alexei play shortstop. Most Cuban players (I'm stereotyping here) seem to be really fun to watch. I can't really think of one that is not. Averaged WAR: 2.3. .297/.357/.455/.355.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera- I forgot to put him in my last all-star voting update, because his average WAR just dissappeared from my sight from my spreadsheet. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .299/.352/.522/.387
3.Jhonny Peralta-I haven't watched him play much this year but according to at least one Fangraphs commenter, his range has really diminished. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .314/.373/.535/.386.
4. Yunel Escobar- traded for Alex Gonzalez last year, everything A.A. does turns to magic. Anything that my AA group does turns to drinking. That's not funny or clever. Averaged WAR: 1.9. .296/.377/.443/.360.
5. Erick Aybar-The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of North America of the Western Hemisphere of Planet Earth...have a lot of players who seem to be similar, Izturis, Aybar, Kendrick, Callaspo, etc. if only they still had Brandon Wood. Averaged WAR: 1.75. .315/.356/.444/.365.
Second Base:
1. Howie Kendrick- injured for some of the season, still having a great season. Averaged WAR: 2.55. .322/.388/.520/.397.
2. Ben Zobrist- he should probably be on the all-star team as a super-sub just kind of filling in everywhere. Averaged WAR: 2. .246/.325/.473/.350.
3. Ian Kinsler- apparently transferred out of Arizona State because he lost the second base job to Dustin Pedroia, according to Michael Schur, aka Ken Tremendous from FireJoeMorgan fame. Averaged WAR: 1.75. .233/.351/.413/.351.
4. Dustin Pedroia- We are the same size. Pedroia is about 983098493084 times the baseball player I ever was, if we were walking on the street, we might get confused. If we were facing a 90 MPH fastball, nobody would get us confused. Averaged WAR: 1.65. .245/.353/.335/.323.
5. Robinson Cano- don't really have a comment here. It feels like it's going to be a battle between Pedroia and Cano for the starting 2B spot on the American League All-Star team for the next several years. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .284/.324/.514/.364.
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez- I like to watch Alexei play shortstop. Most Cuban players (I'm stereotyping here) seem to be really fun to watch. I can't really think of one that is not. Averaged WAR: 2.3. .297/.357/.455/.355.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera- I forgot to put him in my last all-star voting update, because his average WAR just dissappeared from my sight from my spreadsheet. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .299/.352/.522/.387
3.Jhonny Peralta-I haven't watched him play much this year but according to at least one Fangraphs commenter, his range has really diminished. Averaged WAR: 2.05. .314/.373/.535/.386.
4. Yunel Escobar- traded for Alex Gonzalez last year, everything A.A. does turns to magic. Anything that my AA group does turns to drinking. That's not funny or clever. Averaged WAR: 1.9. .296/.377/.443/.360.
5. Erick Aybar-The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of North America of the Western Hemisphere of Planet Earth...have a lot of players who seem to be similar, Izturis, Aybar, Kendrick, Callaspo, etc. if only they still had Brandon Wood. Averaged WAR: 1.75. .315/.356/.444/.365.
All-Star Voting American League First Basemen
Despite the fact that Teixeira is leading in the votes, I don't think he's the most worthy of the all-star voting.
1. Adrian Gonzalez- I don't think Gonzalez is going to win the American League MVP award as long as Jose Bautista keeps playing like he does but I'm sure Gonzalez will be mentioned and may be in the top 3 in the voting. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .329/.377/.541/.395.
2. Miguel Cabrera- For the calendar year, Cabrera has more DUI's than triples. Averaged WAR: 2.1. .311/.432/.568/.417.
3. Mark Teixeira-I was trying to think of logical fallacies that Yankee fans make but I haven't been on ESPN's comments section in awhile so it would be hypocritical of me to point out contradictions if I made them up myself. I guess there could be bigger travesties than Teixeira being voted as the starter, such as Jeter being voted as an all-star. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .257/.367/.535/.389.
4. Mike Napoli- not good enough to start for the Angels, traded twice this off-season, could be an all-star if actually voted on as a catcher as he is playing some games there, too. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .225/.365/.550/.394.
5. Mitch Moreland- Napoli's teammate, he's on my fantasy team, I'm not doing very well, though, my first round pick was Chase Utley and my second round pick was Carl Crawford. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .307/.384/.515/.392
1. Adrian Gonzalez- I don't think Gonzalez is going to win the American League MVP award as long as Jose Bautista keeps playing like he does but I'm sure Gonzalez will be mentioned and may be in the top 3 in the voting. Averaged WAR: 2.25. .329/.377/.541/.395.
2. Miguel Cabrera- For the calendar year, Cabrera has more DUI's than triples. Averaged WAR: 2.1. .311/.432/.568/.417.
3. Mark Teixeira-I was trying to think of logical fallacies that Yankee fans make but I haven't been on ESPN's comments section in awhile so it would be hypocritical of me to point out contradictions if I made them up myself. I guess there could be bigger travesties than Teixeira being voted as the starter, such as Jeter being voted as an all-star. Averaged WAR: 1.5. .257/.367/.535/.389.
4. Mike Napoli- not good enough to start for the Angels, traded twice this off-season, could be an all-star if actually voted on as a catcher as he is playing some games there, too. Averaged WAR: 1.45. .225/.365/.550/.394.
5. Mitch Moreland- Napoli's teammate, he's on my fantasy team, I'm not doing very well, though, my first round pick was Chase Utley and my second round pick was Carl Crawford. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .307/.384/.515/.392
All-Star Voting American League Catchers
The first results of the all-star voting has been released and there are quite a few surprises, including Joe Mauer and Yorvit Torrealba placing among the top 5 at their positions. I am breaking down the positions again, listing the top 5 at each position to vote for. WAR was taken on Thursday, June 2, all other stats should be updated to June 3.
American League:
Catchers:
1. Alex Avila- continuing his fantastic first half run, he has now overtaken Russell Martin as the best catcher in the American League. He's probably not as good as a player as he has played like so far but it would be nice to reward him for having a great season so far. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .281/.349/.527/.378.
2. Russell Martin- still showing that you don't have to spend a lot of money to sign a good player. Still probably the shrewdest move of the off-season and it was made by the Yankees known to throw away large portions of money, Rafael Soriano, anyone? Averaged WAR: 1.5. .242/.352/.458/.369/
3. Carlos Santana- The American League Central has some great catchers and A.J. Pierzynski. Santana will probably be the best catcher in the league as early as next year. Unless Mauer comes back healthy and playing catcher. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .234/.374/.395/.345
4. Matt Wieters- he's finally living up to some of the hype that he received before he was in the Major Leagues. Not an all-time bust but certainly not as good as everyone once thought, he's still young, so it's possible that he lives up to the hype and becomes one of the best catchers in the league. Notice how I'm covering my butt by saying two statements that pretty clearly contradict themselves. Averaged WAR: 1.4 .263/.326/.401/.322
5. Kurt Suzuki- I remember when he played in the College World Series for Cal State Fullerton, I met him and got his autograph. Who had incredible foresight? Of course I also received autographs from Phillip Humber, Wade Townsend, and lots of other players who never made it to the Majors. Averaged WAR: 0.9. .242/.303/.357/.296.
American League:
Catchers:
1. Alex Avila- continuing his fantastic first half run, he has now overtaken Russell Martin as the best catcher in the American League. He's probably not as good as a player as he has played like so far but it would be nice to reward him for having a great season so far. Averaged WAR: 1.8. .281/.349/.527/.378.
2. Russell Martin- still showing that you don't have to spend a lot of money to sign a good player. Still probably the shrewdest move of the off-season and it was made by the Yankees known to throw away large portions of money, Rafael Soriano, anyone? Averaged WAR: 1.5. .242/.352/.458/.369/
3. Carlos Santana- The American League Central has some great catchers and A.J. Pierzynski. Santana will probably be the best catcher in the league as early as next year. Unless Mauer comes back healthy and playing catcher. Averaged WAR: 1.4. .234/.374/.395/.345
4. Matt Wieters- he's finally living up to some of the hype that he received before he was in the Major Leagues. Not an all-time bust but certainly not as good as everyone once thought, he's still young, so it's possible that he lives up to the hype and becomes one of the best catchers in the league. Notice how I'm covering my butt by saying two statements that pretty clearly contradict themselves. Averaged WAR: 1.4 .263/.326/.401/.322
5. Kurt Suzuki- I remember when he played in the College World Series for Cal State Fullerton, I met him and got his autograph. Who had incredible foresight? Of course I also received autographs from Phillip Humber, Wade Townsend, and lots of other players who never made it to the Majors. Averaged WAR: 0.9. .242/.303/.357/.296.
Friday, May 27, 2011
All-Star voting
The all-star votes rankings have changed a bit. I am now averaging the WAR between fWAR and rWAR, I'm hoping that this has a more accurate reflection of who the best players are. Stats through Thursday, May 26, 2011. Quadrouple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG%/wOBA
American League:
Catcher:
1. Alex Avila- averaged WAR: 1.75. .293/.358/.556/.393
2. Russell Martin- averaged WAR: 1.75. .266/.370/.504/.392
3. Matt Wieters- averaged WAR: 1.5. .265/.335/.401/.327
First Base:
1. Adrian Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 2.25. .337/.385/.553/.405
2. Miguel Cabrera- averaged WAR: 1.9. .312/.431/.553/.412
3. Mark Teixeira- averaged WAR: 1.2. .253/.363/.517/.384
4. Justin Smoak- averaged WAR: 1.2. .263/.365/.461/.363
Second Base:
1. Howie Kendrick- averaged WAR: 2.55. .322/.388/.520/.398
2. Ben Zobrist- averaged WAR: 1.85. .253/.338/.489/.363
3. Dustin Pedroia- averaged WAR: 1.5. .247/.357/.332/.321
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez- averaged WAR: 1.75. .278/.343/.443/.345
2. Jhonny Peralta- averaged WAR: 1.65. .299/.364/.506/.375
3. Erick Aybar- averaged WAR: 1.45. .309/.354/.421/.358
Third Base:
1. Kevin Youkilis- averaged WAR: 2.2. .272/.403/.519/.403
2. Maicer Izturis- averaged WAR: 1.95. .302/.366/.444/.359
3. Alex Rodriguez- averaged WAR: 1.85. .287/.360/.503/.378
Left Field:
1. Alex Gordon- averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.343/.477/.359
2. Michael Brantley- averaged WAR: 1.45. .286/.353/.405/.338
3. Brett Gardner- averaged WAR: 1.35. .270/.348/.416/.334
Center Field:
1. Curtis Granderson- averaged WAR: 2.55. .280/.353/.626/.422
2. Denard Span- averaged WAR: 2.55. .295/.368/.379/.340
3. Jacoby Ellsbury- averaged WAR: 1.3. .296/.364/.449/.369
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista- averaged WAR: 4.45. .342/.492/.785/.530
2. Matt Joyce- averaged WAR: 3. .367/.431/.639/.459
3. Carlos Quentin- averaged WAR: 1.7. .260/.350/.554/.390
4. Shin-Soo Choo- averaged WAR: 1.7. .247/.328/.382/.317
Designated Hitter:
1. Michael Young- averaged WAR: 1.35. .340/.383/.489/.380
2. Travis Hafner- averaged WAR: 1.25. .345/.409/.549/.410
3. David Ortiz- averaged WAR: 1.25. .309/.382/.552/.407
National League:
Catcher:
1. Buster Posey- averaged WAR: 1.65. .284/.368/.389/.341
2. Yadier Molina- averaged WAR: 1.45. .318/.364/.470/.354
3. Ramon Hernandez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .327/.375/.558/.398
Note: Until Posey gets dethroned as the best catcher in the league, he deserves the vote until someone is truly better than him.
First Base:
1. Joey Votto- averaged WAR: 2.7. .330/.453/.527/.424
2. Gaby Sanchez- averaged WAR: 2. .315/.396/.489/.388
3. Prince Fielder- averaged WAR: 1.8. .285/.380/.548/.396
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks- averaged WAR: 1.8. .288/.366/.490/.377
2. Brandon Phillips- averaged WAR: 1.5. .306/.365/.435/.357
3. Neil Walker- averaged WAR: 1.05. .263/.330/.425/.337
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes- averaged WAR: 1.85. .319/.370/.461/.367
2. Troy Tulowitzki- averaged WAR: 1.7. .245/.324/.495/.349
3. Alex Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .268/.298/.400/.307
Third Base:
1. Pablo Sandoval- averaged WAR: 1.65. .313/.374/.530/.391
2. Ryan Roberts- averaged WAR: 1.55. .277/.391/.477/.389
3. Placido Polanco- averaged WAR: 1.55. .323/.363/.417/.348
Left Field:
1. Ryan Braun- averaged WAR: 2.5. .306/.398/.575/.430
2. Matt Holliday- averaged WAR: 2.25. .349/.439/.557/.433
3. Logan Morrison- averaged WAR: 1.1. .320/.413/.583/.427
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp- averaged WAR: 2.65. .317/.395/.561/.421
2. Drew Stubbs- averaged WAR: 2. .262/.339/.413/.349
3. Andrew McCutchen- averaged WAR: 1.95. .246/.348/.453/.355
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman- averaged WAR: 2.2. .350/.463/.650/.458
2. Carlos Beltran- averaged WAR: 2.1. .278/.372/.531/.389
3. Mike Stanton- averaged WAR: 1.5. .274/.346/.573/.395
American League:
Catcher:
1. Alex Avila- averaged WAR: 1.75. .293/.358/.556/.393
2. Russell Martin- averaged WAR: 1.75. .266/.370/.504/.392
3. Matt Wieters- averaged WAR: 1.5. .265/.335/.401/.327
First Base:
1. Adrian Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 2.25. .337/.385/.553/.405
2. Miguel Cabrera- averaged WAR: 1.9. .312/.431/.553/.412
3. Mark Teixeira- averaged WAR: 1.2. .253/.363/.517/.384
4. Justin Smoak- averaged WAR: 1.2. .263/.365/.461/.363
Second Base:
1. Howie Kendrick- averaged WAR: 2.55. .322/.388/.520/.398
2. Ben Zobrist- averaged WAR: 1.85. .253/.338/.489/.363
3. Dustin Pedroia- averaged WAR: 1.5. .247/.357/.332/.321
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez- averaged WAR: 1.75. .278/.343/.443/.345
2. Jhonny Peralta- averaged WAR: 1.65. .299/.364/.506/.375
3. Erick Aybar- averaged WAR: 1.45. .309/.354/.421/.358
Third Base:
1. Kevin Youkilis- averaged WAR: 2.2. .272/.403/.519/.403
2. Maicer Izturis- averaged WAR: 1.95. .302/.366/.444/.359
3. Alex Rodriguez- averaged WAR: 1.85. .287/.360/.503/.378
Left Field:
1. Alex Gordon- averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.343/.477/.359
2. Michael Brantley- averaged WAR: 1.45. .286/.353/.405/.338
3. Brett Gardner- averaged WAR: 1.35. .270/.348/.416/.334
Center Field:
1. Curtis Granderson- averaged WAR: 2.55. .280/.353/.626/.422
2. Denard Span- averaged WAR: 2.55. .295/.368/.379/.340
3. Jacoby Ellsbury- averaged WAR: 1.3. .296/.364/.449/.369
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista- averaged WAR: 4.45. .342/.492/.785/.530
2. Matt Joyce- averaged WAR: 3. .367/.431/.639/.459
3. Carlos Quentin- averaged WAR: 1.7. .260/.350/.554/.390
4. Shin-Soo Choo- averaged WAR: 1.7. .247/.328/.382/.317
Designated Hitter:
1. Michael Young- averaged WAR: 1.35. .340/.383/.489/.380
2. Travis Hafner- averaged WAR: 1.25. .345/.409/.549/.410
3. David Ortiz- averaged WAR: 1.25. .309/.382/.552/.407
National League:
Catcher:
1. Buster Posey- averaged WAR: 1.65. .284/.368/.389/.341
2. Yadier Molina- averaged WAR: 1.45. .318/.364/.470/.354
3. Ramon Hernandez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .327/.375/.558/.398
Note: Until Posey gets dethroned as the best catcher in the league, he deserves the vote until someone is truly better than him.
First Base:
1. Joey Votto- averaged WAR: 2.7. .330/.453/.527/.424
2. Gaby Sanchez- averaged WAR: 2. .315/.396/.489/.388
3. Prince Fielder- averaged WAR: 1.8. .285/.380/.548/.396
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks- averaged WAR: 1.8. .288/.366/.490/.377
2. Brandon Phillips- averaged WAR: 1.5. .306/.365/.435/.357
3. Neil Walker- averaged WAR: 1.05. .263/.330/.425/.337
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes- averaged WAR: 1.85. .319/.370/.461/.367
2. Troy Tulowitzki- averaged WAR: 1.7. .245/.324/.495/.349
3. Alex Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .268/.298/.400/.307
Third Base:
1. Pablo Sandoval- averaged WAR: 1.65. .313/.374/.530/.391
2. Ryan Roberts- averaged WAR: 1.55. .277/.391/.477/.389
3. Placido Polanco- averaged WAR: 1.55. .323/.363/.417/.348
Left Field:
1. Ryan Braun- averaged WAR: 2.5. .306/.398/.575/.430
2. Matt Holliday- averaged WAR: 2.25. .349/.439/.557/.433
3. Logan Morrison- averaged WAR: 1.1. .320/.413/.583/.427
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp- averaged WAR: 2.65. .317/.395/.561/.421
2. Drew Stubbs- averaged WAR: 2. .262/.339/.413/.349
3. Andrew McCutchen- averaged WAR: 1.95. .246/.348/.453/.355
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman- averaged WAR: 2.2. .350/.463/.650/.458
2. Carlos Beltran- averaged WAR: 2.1. .278/.372/.531/.389
3. Mike Stanton- averaged WAR: 1.5. .274/.346/.573/.395
Saturday, May 21, 2011
All-Star Votes so far
Well, I just thought I should share who I think you should vote for if you were voting for the all-stars right now. I'll update this every week.
American League:
C- Russell Martin- best free agent pick-up of the off-season by the New York Yankees. He's already produced 1.7 rWAR so far this season. His slash line is .270/.374/.484. His OPS+ is 136. His OPS+ is the highest of his career. His slugging percentage is also the highest of his career. He definitely deserves to be an all-star this season. The next best catcher in the league so far is Alex Avila. Just interesting to think about.
1B- Adrian Gonzalez- rWAR: 2.0. If I had to bet on a player to make the all-star game, I would bet all the money I have on Gonzalez making the all-star game as a starter this year. Boston fans are going to vote him in as quickly as they can.
2b- Howie Kendrick- rWAR: 2.6 slightly higher than Ben Zobrist (Zobrist is not going to be voted in as an all-star, although he should be selected to fill the super-utility role on the all-star game). Kendrick will not be the starter though, either Pedroia or Cano will be voted in as the starter.
3B- Adrian Beltre or Kevin Youkilis- both tied at 1.7 rWAR so we'll compare the two real quick. Beltre is the better defender over Youkilis. Beltre's slash line is .260/.310/.491 and his OPS+ is 118. Youkilis' slash line is .271/.402/.536 and his OPS+ is 157. You have to really value Beltre's defense to select him over Youkilis. I'd rather have Youkilis in the all-star game though.
SS- Maicer Izturis or Jhonny Peralta- Izturis' rWAR is 1.6 and Peralta's rWAR is 1.5. It's up to you where you think Izturis is a shortstop or second baseman. It's kind of a coin flip at this point. Jeter or Alexei Ramirez will probably end up as the starting shortstop though, which might be a disappointment.
LF-(I'm breaking them up by position) Alex Gordon- his rWAR is only 0.9 but he's an interesting story, at the very least. Brett Gardner or Michael Brantley will probably pass him as worthy all-stars at the left field position. I'm still rooting for Alex Gordon. I was hoping the Royals would have traded him to the Twins but I don't think that's happening anymore. His slash line is .276/.339/.443.
CF-Curtis Granderson- his rWAR is 2.1. He's actually having a pretty great season. He's making every team involved in the Austin Jackson-Curtis Granderson-Ian Kennedy trade look like they got exactly what they wanted, even though, it's surprising that the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer in this trade.
RF-Jose Bautista his rWAR is 3.9. He'll be voted in as the starter in a landslide. He's the most productive battter in the Major Leagues by far. He is looking ridiculous.
National League:
C- Buster Posey- this should be the first of many all-star seasons. His rWAR is 1.6 so far, which is pretty impressive. Posey is one of my faborite players in the league. His slash line is .278/.367/.389. His OPS+ is 109. I would like to see his slugging percentage a little bit higher. But he is still having a pretty good season so far. The second best catcher in the league is Yadier Molina.
1B- Joey Votto- rWAR: 2.8. He is the most productive player that's not named Jose Bautista in the Major Leagues. I don't know if he'll be the starter over Albert Pujols in this year's all-star game but with Pujols and his slow start may keep him out of the starting spot.
2B- Brandon Phillips- rWAR 1.7 slight lead over Rickie Weeks. I think Phillips would be interesting on a roster with Molina, Pujols, and any other Cardinals. I'm kind of excited to see if Phillips would get attacked by the Cardinals players on the roster.
3B- Placido Polanco- his rWAR is 1.5. I know I'm as surprised as you are. I'm sure he will not be the best third basemen in the league much longer.
SS- Jose Reyes- his rWAR is 1.8. He's playing very well this year. I'm sure this season will land him a massive contract. As long as he's healthy he'll do well and be the starter.
LF-Matt Holliday- his rWAR is 2.5. Holliday is having a great season besides missing time with his appendectomy. It'll be interesting to see if his contract takes away money from the Albert Pujols extensions.
CF-Matt Kemp- his rWAR is 2.1- Kemp has been on fire this season and definitely deserves to be an all-star this season.
RF-Lance Berkman- his rWAR is 2.1. This free agent signing surprised me. I thought this was going to be the worst free agent signing but he's having a good season, as well.
American League:
C- Russell Martin- best free agent pick-up of the off-season by the New York Yankees. He's already produced 1.7 rWAR so far this season. His slash line is .270/.374/.484. His OPS+ is 136. His OPS+ is the highest of his career. His slugging percentage is also the highest of his career. He definitely deserves to be an all-star this season. The next best catcher in the league so far is Alex Avila. Just interesting to think about.
1B- Adrian Gonzalez- rWAR: 2.0. If I had to bet on a player to make the all-star game, I would bet all the money I have on Gonzalez making the all-star game as a starter this year. Boston fans are going to vote him in as quickly as they can.
2b- Howie Kendrick- rWAR: 2.6 slightly higher than Ben Zobrist (Zobrist is not going to be voted in as an all-star, although he should be selected to fill the super-utility role on the all-star game). Kendrick will not be the starter though, either Pedroia or Cano will be voted in as the starter.
3B- Adrian Beltre or Kevin Youkilis- both tied at 1.7 rWAR so we'll compare the two real quick. Beltre is the better defender over Youkilis. Beltre's slash line is .260/.310/.491 and his OPS+ is 118. Youkilis' slash line is .271/.402/.536 and his OPS+ is 157. You have to really value Beltre's defense to select him over Youkilis. I'd rather have Youkilis in the all-star game though.
SS- Maicer Izturis or Jhonny Peralta- Izturis' rWAR is 1.6 and Peralta's rWAR is 1.5. It's up to you where you think Izturis is a shortstop or second baseman. It's kind of a coin flip at this point. Jeter or Alexei Ramirez will probably end up as the starting shortstop though, which might be a disappointment.
LF-(I'm breaking them up by position) Alex Gordon- his rWAR is only 0.9 but he's an interesting story, at the very least. Brett Gardner or Michael Brantley will probably pass him as worthy all-stars at the left field position. I'm still rooting for Alex Gordon. I was hoping the Royals would have traded him to the Twins but I don't think that's happening anymore. His slash line is .276/.339/.443.
CF-Curtis Granderson- his rWAR is 2.1. He's actually having a pretty great season. He's making every team involved in the Austin Jackson-Curtis Granderson-Ian Kennedy trade look like they got exactly what they wanted, even though, it's surprising that the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer in this trade.
RF-Jose Bautista his rWAR is 3.9. He'll be voted in as the starter in a landslide. He's the most productive battter in the Major Leagues by far. He is looking ridiculous.
National League:
C- Buster Posey- this should be the first of many all-star seasons. His rWAR is 1.6 so far, which is pretty impressive. Posey is one of my faborite players in the league. His slash line is .278/.367/.389. His OPS+ is 109. I would like to see his slugging percentage a little bit higher. But he is still having a pretty good season so far. The second best catcher in the league is Yadier Molina.
1B- Joey Votto- rWAR: 2.8. He is the most productive player that's not named Jose Bautista in the Major Leagues. I don't know if he'll be the starter over Albert Pujols in this year's all-star game but with Pujols and his slow start may keep him out of the starting spot.
2B- Brandon Phillips- rWAR 1.7 slight lead over Rickie Weeks. I think Phillips would be interesting on a roster with Molina, Pujols, and any other Cardinals. I'm kind of excited to see if Phillips would get attacked by the Cardinals players on the roster.
3B- Placido Polanco- his rWAR is 1.5. I know I'm as surprised as you are. I'm sure he will not be the best third basemen in the league much longer.
SS- Jose Reyes- his rWAR is 1.8. He's playing very well this year. I'm sure this season will land him a massive contract. As long as he's healthy he'll do well and be the starter.
LF-Matt Holliday- his rWAR is 2.5. Holliday is having a great season besides missing time with his appendectomy. It'll be interesting to see if his contract takes away money from the Albert Pujols extensions.
CF-Matt Kemp- his rWAR is 2.1- Kemp has been on fire this season and definitely deserves to be an all-star this season.
RF-Lance Berkman- his rWAR is 2.1. This free agent signing surprised me. I thought this was going to be the worst free agent signing but he's having a good season, as well.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Random Player Write-up #59 centerfielder
Random Player Write-up:
#59 Centerfielder Clyde Milan
Career: 7.94. 5 year consecutive: 4.34. Average: 0.5. 3 Highest: 2.99. 10 Highest: 7.07. All-Star Seasons: 2. MVP Seasons: 0.
Best season: 1912- .306/.377/.379 with a wOBA of .390. His average was his third highest, his OBP was 3rd highest, his Slugging percentage was 5th highest and his wOBA was his second highest.
His 1911 season ranks higher in each of those categories. Why is the 1912 season ranked higher than the 1911? Well, in 1912 he created 90 runs which ranked 8th in the league. In the 1911 season he created 94 runs which ranked him 9th in the league. So, already we have Milan creating more runs in 1911 but in context the runs created in 1912 are more valuable. His offensive WAR in 1912 put him in 9th place in the league with 4.5 so it was slightly higher than the 4.4 offensive WAR that was put up in 1911. Milan was ranked as a better defensive player in 1912 then he was in 1911. In 1912, Milan put up a defensive WAR of 0.9 compared to the defensive WAR of 0.3. Until we research and prove that Milan was not a better defensive player in 1912 compared to 1911, we have to rank the 1912 season above 1911. For those who do not believe that WAR effectively evaluates players, the MVP voters seem to think that his 1912 season was better than his 1911 season. He finished 4th in the MVP voting in 1912 and 9th in 1911. So based on that, Milan seemed to have a slightly better season in 1912 then he did in 1911. This is another instance of WAR matching up with the MVP votes.
John Olerud and the Hall of Fame
John Olerud was probably most famous for wearing a protective helmet even when he was on the field instead of a baseball cap. There's a possibly apocryphal story about Rickey Henderson, who upon joining Olerud and the New York Mets, said to Olerud that there used to be a player who wore a helmet out on the field, I can't remember his name. Most people seem to claim that the story is indeed false. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, either way.
John Olerud retired in 2005. He received four votes in the 2011 Hall of Fame voting. To be fair to Olerud, the 2011 ballot was pretty loaded and there was about 10 players on there who deserved to be voted for. However, Olerud fell off the ballot after his only season on the ballot. Olerud retired with a slash line of .295/.398/.465. He had 2239 hits, 500 doubles, 255 homeruns, 1230 RBI's, and 1139 runs scored. He won only three gold gloves, only made two all-star teams, and only finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting once (in 1993).
I have Olerud ranked as the 23rd best first baseman of all-time with a score of 36.55 which puts him above the threshold of being a hall-of-famer (in my ranking system 34 represents a hall of famer). Olerud nearly put up 60 career WAR, averaged between rWAR and fWAR. His career WAR ranks 20th all-time for first basemen (ahead of hall-of-famers Bill Terry, George Sisler, Tony Perez, and other non-hall-of-famers such as Don Mattingly). The Hall of Fame is not just a Hall of WAR, otherwise, we would just look at the career marks in WAR of all eligible players and just put them in based on their career WAR. Olerud's highest five consecutive stretch of WAR was 27.5 which ranks him 30th all-time in score of first basemen, which is lower than you'd expect a hall of famer to be, I would suppose. Some of the players above him are non-hall-of-famers such as Mattingly, Will Clark, and Dolf Camilli. His average WAR per season ranks him 25th among first basemen. He averaged 3.5 WAR per season which is still pretty impressive. This mark ties him with Cap Anson and above such players as Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, among others. His highest 3 seasons (non-consecutive) rank him 16th among first basemen. In those three seasons, he put up a total of 22.3 WAR which is fairly impressive. His highest ten years (non-consecutive) rank him 22nd among first basemen. Overall, his numbers suggest that he's among the top 25 first basemen of all-time and shold have received more support for the Hall of Fame.
A brief comparison with Don Mattingly: One of the common comparisons made between Olerud and other first basemen usually concerns Don Mattingly. For whatever reason, people suggest Mattingly is a clear-cut hall-of-famer. I don't see that's the case. He would have had to put nearly 10 more WAR in his career for me to really consider him. His five year peak is impressive (ranking 22nd among first baseman) but he never put up an MVP quality season but he put 4 all-star seasons. Olerud, on the other hand, put up a total of three all-star seasons (missing a fourth in 1997 by 0.1 WAR) and put up two MVP seasons (1993 and 1998). I have Olerud having a lesser peak but ranked higher, not only because of his better career numbers (which Mattingly couldn't do because of injury concerns) but because he has a higher average WAR, higher 3 non-consecutive seasons, and higher 10 non-consecutive seasons. Basically, Olerud ranks higher because he has a higher score on everything except 5 consecutive years and his two best seasons are better seasons than Mattingly ever put up.
Conclusion: I'm not saying definitively that my ranking system shows who is a hall of famer and who is not, although I believe it does. I believe that Olerud is a better candidate for the Hall of Fame than many of those already in there. I hope that Olerud's case gets re-opened later by the Veteran's Committee and I hope he gets into the Hall of Fame.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Based on an interview with Alan Hirsch
The interview with Alan Hirsch can be found on Fangraphs here.
Let's begin.
"First, there was his belief that statistics alone could identify top prospects. Jeremy Brown and Brant Colamarino are a good place to start if we’re talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets through statistical analysis."
Another good place to start would be to judge Billy Beane's acquisitions of minor league and major league talent. I am throwing out an idea out there. I don't think the belief was that in statistics alone; some of the idea was there so that they could save money on the draft. For instance, Jeremy Brown was a first round pick but had to agree to a lesser contract (read: signing bonus) upon signing with tthe Oakland A's. There are some shortcomings when analyzing amateur athletes and projecting them into the Minor Leagues and eventually the Major Leagues even if you use traditional scouting methods. In your previous response, you talk about the success of the Twins, who are usually defined by using traditional scouting methods. However, I could easily pick out players that they have drafted that would indicate that we should already be talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets. Furthermore, it's not as if the Twins select undervalued assets. The majority of their picks the lst few years have been "toolsy, athletic" outfielders and pitchers who throw strikes instead of walking a lot of batters. Here's just a small sample of failed first round picks by the Twins. Chris Parmelee, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson. The conversation might need to be, why is it so difficult to project amateur players into professional settings? The success rate in the Major League draft is incredibly low. Perhaps there needs to be a revamping of how teams view the draft and how to project those same players.
"That pitchers have some control over the outcome of batted balls is established if you look at pitchers’ career data, particularly comparing pairs of pitchers who spent most of their careers with the same team (thus controlling to a large degree for ballpark and defense). Pitchers are a complicated package. They succeed as a result of different combinations of skills reflected in walks, strikeouts, home runs, AND weaker-hit balls that generate easy outs."
Well I'll look at that. The Twins certainly believe in this philosophy that a pitcher gets in trouble if he walks players. Part of the reason for this I believe is that the BABIP is much higher with players on base because it's easier to find a hole when a player is slightly out of position. I haven't done enough research to prove this, however.
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were teammates with the Atlanta Braves from 1993-2002. They are probably our best examples of looking at paired teammates who played for the same team and everything. Smoltz's BABIP during that time ranged from .268-.300, Maddux's was .244-.324, Glavine's was .248-.320.
Smoltz's low was .268 which was in 1993, that year Maddux's was .269, and that year Glavine's was .280.
Smoltz's high was .300 which was in 1998, that year Maddux's was .262, and Glavine's was .265.
Maddux's high was .324 which was in 1999, that year Glavine's was .309, and Smoltz's was .289.
Maddux's low was .244 in 1995, Glavine's was .281, and Smoltz's was .288.
Glavine's high was .320 in 1994, Smoltz's was .271, and Maddux was .253.
Glavine's low was .248 in 1997, Smoltz's was .297, and Maddux was .280.
Their career numbers for BABIP are similar Smoltz at .283, Maddux at .281, and Glavine at .280.
It doesn't seem like the pitchers have much control over their BABIP as they are very similar even when we account for the fact they were pitching with basically the same factors each year. If pitchers are able to control weak ground balls and such shouldn't Maddux and Glavine have much lower BABIP's then Smoltz? Glavine and Maddux both much lower K rates then Smoltz and so would need to generate more outs in the field, however, their BABIP's are only slightly lower than Smoltz's. It seems that while they were playing with the same defenses that BABIP is largely luck and that pitchers do not have control over it. I'll revisit this later mainly to find a better way to look at it.
Let's begin.
"First, there was his belief that statistics alone could identify top prospects. Jeremy Brown and Brant Colamarino are a good place to start if we’re talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets through statistical analysis."
Another good place to start would be to judge Billy Beane's acquisitions of minor league and major league talent. I am throwing out an idea out there. I don't think the belief was that in statistics alone; some of the idea was there so that they could save money on the draft. For instance, Jeremy Brown was a first round pick but had to agree to a lesser contract (read: signing bonus) upon signing with tthe Oakland A's. There are some shortcomings when analyzing amateur athletes and projecting them into the Minor Leagues and eventually the Major Leagues even if you use traditional scouting methods. In your previous response, you talk about the success of the Twins, who are usually defined by using traditional scouting methods. However, I could easily pick out players that they have drafted that would indicate that we should already be talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets. Furthermore, it's not as if the Twins select undervalued assets. The majority of their picks the lst few years have been "toolsy, athletic" outfielders and pitchers who throw strikes instead of walking a lot of batters. Here's just a small sample of failed first round picks by the Twins. Chris Parmelee, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson. The conversation might need to be, why is it so difficult to project amateur players into professional settings? The success rate in the Major League draft is incredibly low. Perhaps there needs to be a revamping of how teams view the draft and how to project those same players.
"That pitchers have some control over the outcome of batted balls is established if you look at pitchers’ career data, particularly comparing pairs of pitchers who spent most of their careers with the same team (thus controlling to a large degree for ballpark and defense). Pitchers are a complicated package. They succeed as a result of different combinations of skills reflected in walks, strikeouts, home runs, AND weaker-hit balls that generate easy outs."
Well I'll look at that. The Twins certainly believe in this philosophy that a pitcher gets in trouble if he walks players. Part of the reason for this I believe is that the BABIP is much higher with players on base because it's easier to find a hole when a player is slightly out of position. I haven't done enough research to prove this, however.
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were teammates with the Atlanta Braves from 1993-2002. They are probably our best examples of looking at paired teammates who played for the same team and everything. Smoltz's BABIP during that time ranged from .268-.300, Maddux's was .244-.324, Glavine's was .248-.320.
Smoltz's low was .268 which was in 1993, that year Maddux's was .269, and that year Glavine's was .280.
Smoltz's high was .300 which was in 1998, that year Maddux's was .262, and Glavine's was .265.
Maddux's high was .324 which was in 1999, that year Glavine's was .309, and Smoltz's was .289.
Maddux's low was .244 in 1995, Glavine's was .281, and Smoltz's was .288.
Glavine's high was .320 in 1994, Smoltz's was .271, and Maddux was .253.
Glavine's low was .248 in 1997, Smoltz's was .297, and Maddux was .280.
Their career numbers for BABIP are similar Smoltz at .283, Maddux at .281, and Glavine at .280.
It doesn't seem like the pitchers have much control over their BABIP as they are very similar even when we account for the fact they were pitching with basically the same factors each year. If pitchers are able to control weak ground balls and such shouldn't Maddux and Glavine have much lower BABIP's then Smoltz? Glavine and Maddux both much lower K rates then Smoltz and so would need to generate more outs in the field, however, their BABIP's are only slightly lower than Smoltz's. It seems that while they were playing with the same defenses that BABIP is largely luck and that pitchers do not have control over it. I'll revisit this later mainly to find a better way to look at it.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Fangraphs has published an article about what the Twins should do..check it out here.
I just wanted to let everyone know that it was "absurd" of me to say Bill Smith is not a good general manager.
I just wanted to let everyone know that it was "absurd" of me to say Bill Smith is not a good general manager.
Bill Smith grading- 2009 off-season to 2010 off-season
1. Traded Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy- This was a fantastic trade. Hardy put up a fWAR of 2.4 and a rWAR of 1.3. Meanwhile, Gomez put up a negative rWAR. Hardy, when healthy, was one of the top shortstops in the American League. That probably has more to say about the shortstops in the American League than it does about Hardy. However, Gomez was one of the pieces that the New York Mets traded for Johan Santana. The New York Mets traded Kevin Mulvey, Phillip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana. Mulvey was traded for Jon Rauch. Humber was granted free agency (read: non-tendered). Gomez was traded for Hardy. The only player that stayed with the team was Guerra. Smith realized that the package he received for Santana was merely not very good and gave up on the prospects. This realization should have been made before the Santana trade (see post before about the prospects that were listed in the 2008 Basecall America Prospect Handbook).
Grade for the trade: A-
2. Re-Signed Carl Pavano- Good re-signing. Pavano put up a fWAR of 3.2 plus he had an awesome moustache. That moustache is easily worth another 1 WAR.
Grade: A
3. Traded Boof Bonser for Chris Province- Boof Bonser was part of the greatest trade in Twins history (hyperbole to be sure, but certainly probable) that netted the Twins Liriano and Nathan. Bonser was basically at replacement level for the Red Sox and was traded in that season, as well. Province is a relief pitcher in the Twins system.
Grade: C
4. Signed Jim Thome as a free agent- probably Smith's greatest move of the off-season. Who could have predicted that a 39 year old would put up a fWAR of 3.6, an OPS+ of 178 and basically would have negated the fact that the Twins lost Morneau for half of the year? Perhaps Bill Smith predicted this and that's why he made the move.
Grade: A+
5. Signed Orlando Hudson as a free agent- Another solid pick-up by Smith. Orlando Hudson had a reputation of signing the free agent deals late and not getting a long term deal. Hudson put up a fWAR of 3.1 and was a solid player all around.
Grade: A+
6. Jason Pridie was picked up on waivers by both the Yankees and Mets. The only reason that this is important is that Pridie was acquired in the Delmon Young fiasco. He was supposed to be a starter right away, that never happened.
Hooray for giving up on players acquired in bad trades! Grade: D (passing for admitting your faults)
7. Signed Jason Repko to a free agent deal- Repko put up a rWAR of 1.5. He was a solid pick-up, as well. I don't understand why the Twins would consciously start Alexei Casilla when they are able to pick-up free agents such as Hudson or Repko?
Grade: B+
8. Traded Joe Testa and Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. The day of the trade the Minnesota Twins were 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox. They were 56-46 with a winning percentage of .549. After the trade the Twins won at a .679 pace and won 94 games. Rauch had been struggling in the closer role in the month of July. Capps hactually had a pretty good rest of the season. It's arguable that the Twins would have won the division without making the trade. However, The Twins decided to trade away Ramos. It's true that Ramos would be a back-up catcher to Joe Mauer. It's also true that Joe Mauer has a history of injury problems. It's even more true that after signing the biggest contract in Twins history, the Twins would let Mauer rest even more. Finally, it's true that Mauer could be moved out of the catcher spot so tht he can be healthier. The Twins looked at these different ideas and decided that Ramos for Capps would be fine. The Twins would still have Drew Butera to back up Mauer. Butera was more of a defensive catcher who currently has a negative OPS+ right now. There were rumors around the trading deadline that Ramos was supposed to be part of a package to get Cliff Lee and was pulled out of that trade. I don't know if that was true. But if you really think Capps would have been more valuable then Lee, you're crazy. Also, Capps was non-tendered at the beginning of the season and could have been had for free. However, the Twins decided to not get him then.
Grade: C-
9. Traded Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes- Oh wait, the Twins weren't done revamping their bullpen. They decided to add Fuentes. He actually had a pretty good rest of the season for the Twins and was a solid pick-up. However, they decided not to offer arbitration to him and he signed with the Athletics after the season.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A, every move seemed to work out and the Twins woun 94 games.
Grade for the trade: A-
2. Re-Signed Carl Pavano- Good re-signing. Pavano put up a fWAR of 3.2 plus he had an awesome moustache. That moustache is easily worth another 1 WAR.
Grade: A
3. Traded Boof Bonser for Chris Province- Boof Bonser was part of the greatest trade in Twins history (hyperbole to be sure, but certainly probable) that netted the Twins Liriano and Nathan. Bonser was basically at replacement level for the Red Sox and was traded in that season, as well. Province is a relief pitcher in the Twins system.
Grade: C
4. Signed Jim Thome as a free agent- probably Smith's greatest move of the off-season. Who could have predicted that a 39 year old would put up a fWAR of 3.6, an OPS+ of 178 and basically would have negated the fact that the Twins lost Morneau for half of the year? Perhaps Bill Smith predicted this and that's why he made the move.
Grade: A+
5. Signed Orlando Hudson as a free agent- Another solid pick-up by Smith. Orlando Hudson had a reputation of signing the free agent deals late and not getting a long term deal. Hudson put up a fWAR of 3.1 and was a solid player all around.
Grade: A+
6. Jason Pridie was picked up on waivers by both the Yankees and Mets. The only reason that this is important is that Pridie was acquired in the Delmon Young fiasco. He was supposed to be a starter right away, that never happened.
Hooray for giving up on players acquired in bad trades! Grade: D (passing for admitting your faults)
7. Signed Jason Repko to a free agent deal- Repko put up a rWAR of 1.5. He was a solid pick-up, as well. I don't understand why the Twins would consciously start Alexei Casilla when they are able to pick-up free agents such as Hudson or Repko?
Grade: B+
8. Traded Joe Testa and Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. The day of the trade the Minnesota Twins were 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox. They were 56-46 with a winning percentage of .549. After the trade the Twins won at a .679 pace and won 94 games. Rauch had been struggling in the closer role in the month of July. Capps hactually had a pretty good rest of the season. It's arguable that the Twins would have won the division without making the trade. However, The Twins decided to trade away Ramos. It's true that Ramos would be a back-up catcher to Joe Mauer. It's also true that Joe Mauer has a history of injury problems. It's even more true that after signing the biggest contract in Twins history, the Twins would let Mauer rest even more. Finally, it's true that Mauer could be moved out of the catcher spot so tht he can be healthier. The Twins looked at these different ideas and decided that Ramos for Capps would be fine. The Twins would still have Drew Butera to back up Mauer. Butera was more of a defensive catcher who currently has a negative OPS+ right now. There were rumors around the trading deadline that Ramos was supposed to be part of a package to get Cliff Lee and was pulled out of that trade. I don't know if that was true. But if you really think Capps would have been more valuable then Lee, you're crazy. Also, Capps was non-tendered at the beginning of the season and could have been had for free. However, the Twins decided to not get him then.
Grade: C-
9. Traded Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes- Oh wait, the Twins weren't done revamping their bullpen. They decided to add Fuentes. He actually had a pretty good rest of the season for the Twins and was a solid pick-up. However, they decided not to offer arbitration to him and he signed with the Athletics after the season.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A, every move seemed to work out and the Twins woun 94 games.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Bill Smith Minnesota Twins GM 2008 off-season to end of 2009 season
1. Signed Bobby Keppel. Bobby Keppel was replacement level with an ERA+ of 91. He won game 163 over the Tigers. Grade: C
2. Signed Sean Henn- pitched 14 games with an ERA of 7.15. Later sent to the Baltimore Orioles as part of a conditional deal. Grade: N/A (not really an imortant deal)
3. Signed R.A. Dickey-pitched 35 games with a WAR of 0.3 and an ERA+ of 95. He was basically what you would expect from a AAAA player who had to pitch. Grade: C.
4. Signed Joe Crede- He stepped into the black hole that has been the Twins 3B position over the last few years. He produced a WAR of 1.6 with an OPS+ of 83. He was the best third basemen besides Danny Valencia over the last five years. I enjoyed watching him play. Grade: B+ (because I can).
5. Traded Tyler Ladendorf for Orlando Cabrera. Ladendorf is not exactly the best prospect but he is in AA right now (2011 season) his OPS's have been pretty low. He appears to be more of a speed guy as he has 35 career stolen bases in the minor leagues while only being caught 8 times. Cabrera produced a .289/.313/.450 in the games he played with the Twins. His WAR with the Twins was 0.3, which wasn't too bad. I thought he did better than he really did. Grade: B
6. Traded Yohan Pino for Carl Pavano. Pino is a 27 year old who has never appeared in the Majors. Pavano's WAR was 0.8 with the Twins, he had a 95 ERA+ and won 5 games. Bill Smith clearly won this trade and Pavano was totally worth a 27 year old player who has not appeared in the Major Leagues.
7. Traded Kevin Mulvey for Jon Rauch. YAY! Kevin Mulvey who was acquired in the Johan Santana was being traded to get a middling relief pitcher in Jon Rauch. Rauch actually did pretty well while with the Twins. Grade: B
8. Signed Ron Mahay as a free agent. Mahay did alright with the Twins producing a 0.2 WAR slightly above what a random player signed would do. Mahay produced slightly above replacement level. Grade: C+
Off-season 2008 to end of season 2009 Grade: C+.
Best Acquisition: Joe Crede
Notes: Didn't do anything too major, just a series of small moves that added up. The Twins won the division in 163 games against the Tigers. He usually does pretty well when he's adding smaller parts to the team instead of making major deals (i.e. The Delmon Young fiasco, The Johan Santana trade).
2. Signed Sean Henn- pitched 14 games with an ERA of 7.15. Later sent to the Baltimore Orioles as part of a conditional deal. Grade: N/A (not really an imortant deal)
3. Signed R.A. Dickey-pitched 35 games with a WAR of 0.3 and an ERA+ of 95. He was basically what you would expect from a AAAA player who had to pitch. Grade: C.
4. Signed Joe Crede- He stepped into the black hole that has been the Twins 3B position over the last few years. He produced a WAR of 1.6 with an OPS+ of 83. He was the best third basemen besides Danny Valencia over the last five years. I enjoyed watching him play. Grade: B+ (because I can).
5. Traded Tyler Ladendorf for Orlando Cabrera. Ladendorf is not exactly the best prospect but he is in AA right now (2011 season) his OPS's have been pretty low. He appears to be more of a speed guy as he has 35 career stolen bases in the minor leagues while only being caught 8 times. Cabrera produced a .289/.313/.450 in the games he played with the Twins. His WAR with the Twins was 0.3, which wasn't too bad. I thought he did better than he really did. Grade: B
6. Traded Yohan Pino for Carl Pavano. Pino is a 27 year old who has never appeared in the Majors. Pavano's WAR was 0.8 with the Twins, he had a 95 ERA+ and won 5 games. Bill Smith clearly won this trade and Pavano was totally worth a 27 year old player who has not appeared in the Major Leagues.
7. Traded Kevin Mulvey for Jon Rauch. YAY! Kevin Mulvey who was acquired in the Johan Santana was being traded to get a middling relief pitcher in Jon Rauch. Rauch actually did pretty well while with the Twins. Grade: B
8. Signed Ron Mahay as a free agent. Mahay did alright with the Twins producing a 0.2 WAR slightly above what a random player signed would do. Mahay produced slightly above replacement level. Grade: C+
Off-season 2008 to end of season 2009 Grade: C+.
Best Acquisition: Joe Crede
Notes: Didn't do anything too major, just a series of small moves that added up. The Twins won the division in 163 games against the Tigers. He usually does pretty well when he's adding smaller parts to the team instead of making major deals (i.e. The Delmon Young fiasco, The Johan Santana trade).
Player Rankings First Basemen
Random player write-up. My random number selected the #97 ranked first basemen. That would be Justin Morneau.
Justin Morneau: Overall Score: 16.14. Career score: 4.27. 5 Consecutive: 3.92. Average: 0.53. 3 Highest: 2.65. 10 Highest: 4.27. All-Star Seasons: 1. MVP Seasons: 0. According to WAR, 2010 was his best season. He only played in 81 games that year and suffered a concussion that would knock him out of the rest of the season and make him struggle in 2011. His averaged WAR was 5.35, his slash line was .345/.437/.618, his wOBA was .447. It was his best season by all those standards as well. However, he did not even place in the MVP voting and won his MVP award in 2006. In 2006, his slash line was .321/.375/.559 and had 130 RBI's. His teammate Joe Mauer had a better season overall. His slash line was .347/.429/.507. But the writers of the BBWAA do love their RBI's and Mauer did not have enough of those. He placed 2nd in RBI's. David Ortiz had seven more and also had a higher WAR than Morneau. The MVP selection seemed to be a bit bizarre even to a Twins fan, such as me. Morneau will probably place higher in the top 100 list as his career goes on. That is unless his struggles thus far in 2011 continue for a long period of time.
Justin Morneau: Overall Score: 16.14. Career score: 4.27. 5 Consecutive: 3.92. Average: 0.53. 3 Highest: 2.65. 10 Highest: 4.27. All-Star Seasons: 1. MVP Seasons: 0. According to WAR, 2010 was his best season. He only played in 81 games that year and suffered a concussion that would knock him out of the rest of the season and make him struggle in 2011. His averaged WAR was 5.35, his slash line was .345/.437/.618, his wOBA was .447. It was his best season by all those standards as well. However, he did not even place in the MVP voting and won his MVP award in 2006. In 2006, his slash line was .321/.375/.559 and had 130 RBI's. His teammate Joe Mauer had a better season overall. His slash line was .347/.429/.507. But the writers of the BBWAA do love their RBI's and Mauer did not have enough of those. He placed 2nd in RBI's. David Ortiz had seven more and also had a higher WAR than Morneau. The MVP selection seemed to be a bit bizarre even to a Twins fan, such as me. Morneau will probably place higher in the top 100 list as his career goes on. That is unless his struggles thus far in 2011 continue for a long period of time.
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