Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Bill Smith grading- 2009 off-season to 2010 off-season

1. Traded Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy- This was a fantastic trade.  Hardy put up a fWAR of 2.4 and a rWAR of 1.3.  Meanwhile, Gomez put up a negative rWAR.  Hardy, when healthy, was one of the top shortstops in the American League.  That probably has more to say about the shortstops in the American League than it does about Hardy.  However, Gomez was one of the pieces that the New York Mets traded for Johan Santana.  The New York Mets traded Kevin Mulvey, Phillip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana.  Mulvey was traded for Jon Rauch. Humber was granted free agency (read: non-tendered).  Gomez was traded for Hardy.  The only player that stayed with the team was Guerra.  Smith realized that the package he received for Santana was merely not very good and gave up on the prospects.  This realization should have been made before the Santana trade (see post before about the prospects that were listed in the 2008 Basecall America Prospect Handbook).
Grade for the trade: A-
2. Re-Signed Carl Pavano- Good re-signing.  Pavano put up a fWAR of 3.2 plus he had an awesome moustache.  That moustache is easily worth another 1 WAR.
Grade: A
3.  Traded Boof Bonser for Chris Province- Boof Bonser was part of the greatest trade in Twins history (hyperbole to be sure, but certainly probable) that netted the Twins Liriano and Nathan.  Bonser was basically at replacement level for the Red Sox and was traded in that season, as well.  Province is a relief pitcher in the Twins system.
Grade: C
4. Signed Jim Thome as a free agent- probably Smith's greatest move of the off-season.  Who could have predicted that a 39 year old would put up a fWAR of 3.6, an OPS+ of 178 and basically would have negated the fact that the Twins lost Morneau for half of the year?  Perhaps Bill Smith predicted this and that's why he made the move. 
Grade: A+
5. Signed Orlando Hudson as a free agent- Another solid pick-up by Smith.  Orlando Hudson had a reputation of signing the free agent deals late and not getting a long term deal.  Hudson put up a fWAR of 3.1 and was a solid player all around.
Grade: A+
6. Jason Pridie was picked up on waivers by both the Yankees and Mets.  The only reason that this is important is that Pridie was acquired in the Delmon Young fiasco. He was supposed to be a starter right away, that never happened.
Hooray for giving up on players acquired in bad trades! Grade: D (passing for admitting your faults)
7. Signed Jason Repko to a free agent deal- Repko put up a rWAR of 1.5.  He was a solid pick-up, as well.  I don't understand why the Twins would consciously start Alexei Casilla when they are able to pick-up free agents such as Hudson or Repko? 
Grade: B+
8. Traded Joe Testa and Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps.  The day of the trade the Minnesota Twins were 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox.  They were 56-46 with a winning percentage of .549.  After the trade the Twins won at a .679 pace and won 94 games.  Rauch had been struggling in the closer role in the month of July.  Capps hactually had a pretty good rest of the season.  It's arguable that the Twins would have won the division without making the trade.  However, The Twins decided to trade away Ramos.  It's true that Ramos would be a back-up catcher to Joe Mauer.  It's also true that Joe Mauer has a history of injury problems.  It's even more true that after signing the biggest contract in Twins history, the Twins would let Mauer rest even more.  Finally, it's true that Mauer could be moved out of the catcher spot so tht he can be healthier.  The Twins looked at these different ideas and decided that Ramos for Capps would be fine.  The Twins would still have Drew Butera to back up Mauer.  Butera was more of a defensive catcher who currently has a negative OPS+ right now.  There were rumors around the trading deadline that Ramos was supposed to be part of a package to get Cliff Lee and was pulled out of that trade.  I don't know if that was true.  But if you really think Capps would have been more valuable then Lee, you're crazy.  Also, Capps was non-tendered at the beginning of the season and could have been had for free.  However, the Twins decided to not get him then.
Grade: C-
9. Traded Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes- Oh wait, the Twins weren't done revamping their bullpen.  They decided to add Fuentes.  He actually had a pretty good rest of the season for the Twins and was a solid pick-up.  However, they decided not to offer arbitration to him and he signed with the Athletics after the season.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A, every move seemed to work out and the Twins woun 94 games.

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