Friday, May 20, 2011

John Olerud and the Hall of Fame

John Olerud was probably most famous for wearing a protective helmet even when he was on the field instead of a baseball cap. There's a possibly apocryphal story about Rickey Henderson, who upon joining Olerud and the New York Mets, said to Olerud that there used to be a player who wore a helmet out on the field, I can't remember his name. Most people seem to claim that the story is indeed false. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, either way.
John Olerud retired in 2005. He received four votes in the 2011 Hall of Fame voting. To be fair to Olerud, the 2011 ballot was pretty loaded and there was about 10 players on there who deserved to be voted for. However, Olerud fell off the ballot after his only season on the ballot. Olerud retired with a slash line of .295/.398/.465. He had 2239 hits, 500 doubles, 255 homeruns, 1230 RBI's, and 1139 runs scored. He won only three gold gloves, only made two all-star teams, and only finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting once (in 1993).
I have Olerud ranked as the 23rd best first baseman of all-time with a score of 36.55 which puts him above the threshold of being a hall-of-famer (in my ranking system 34 represents a hall of famer). Olerud nearly put up 60 career WAR, averaged between rWAR and fWAR. His career WAR ranks 20th all-time for first basemen (ahead of hall-of-famers Bill Terry, George Sisler, Tony Perez, and other non-hall-of-famers such as Don Mattingly). The Hall of Fame is not just a Hall of WAR, otherwise, we would just look at the career marks in WAR of all eligible players and just put them in based on their career WAR. Olerud's highest five consecutive stretch of WAR was 27.5 which ranks him 30th all-time in score of first basemen, which is lower than you'd expect a hall of famer to be, I would suppose. Some of the players above him are non-hall-of-famers such as Mattingly, Will Clark, and Dolf Camilli. His average WAR per season ranks him 25th among first basemen. He averaged 3.5 WAR per season which is still pretty impressive. This mark ties him with Cap Anson and above such players as Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, among others. His highest 3 seasons (non-consecutive) rank him 16th among first basemen. In those three seasons, he put up a total of 22.3 WAR which is fairly impressive. His highest ten years (non-consecutive) rank him 22nd among first basemen. Overall, his numbers suggest that he's among the top 25 first basemen of all-time and shold have received more support for the Hall of Fame.
A brief comparison with Don Mattingly: One of the common comparisons made between Olerud and other first basemen usually concerns Don Mattingly. For whatever reason, people suggest Mattingly is a clear-cut hall-of-famer. I don't see that's the case. He would have had to put nearly 10 more WAR in his career for me to really consider him. His five year peak is impressive (ranking 22nd among first baseman) but he never put up an MVP quality season but he put 4 all-star seasons. Olerud, on the other hand, put up a total of three all-star seasons (missing a fourth in 1997 by 0.1 WAR) and put up two MVP seasons (1993 and 1998). I have Olerud having a lesser peak but ranked higher, not only because of his better career numbers (which Mattingly couldn't do because of injury concerns) but because he has a higher average WAR, higher 3 non-consecutive seasons, and higher 10 non-consecutive seasons. Basically, Olerud ranks higher because he has a higher score on everything except 5 consecutive years and his two best seasons are better seasons than Mattingly ever put up.
Conclusion: I'm not saying definitively that my ranking system shows who is a hall of famer and who is not, although I believe it does. I believe that Olerud is a better candidate for the Hall of Fame than many of those already in there. I hope that Olerud's case gets re-opened later by the Veteran's Committee and I hope he gets into the Hall of Fame.

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