The all-star votes rankings have changed a bit. I am now averaging the WAR between fWAR and rWAR, I'm hoping that this has a more accurate reflection of who the best players are. Stats through Thursday, May 26, 2011. Quadrouple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG%/wOBA
American League:
Catcher:
1. Alex Avila- averaged WAR: 1.75. .293/.358/.556/.393
2. Russell Martin- averaged WAR: 1.75. .266/.370/.504/.392
3. Matt Wieters- averaged WAR: 1.5. .265/.335/.401/.327
First Base:
1. Adrian Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 2.25. .337/.385/.553/.405
2. Miguel Cabrera- averaged WAR: 1.9. .312/.431/.553/.412
3. Mark Teixeira- averaged WAR: 1.2. .253/.363/.517/.384
4. Justin Smoak- averaged WAR: 1.2. .263/.365/.461/.363
Second Base:
1. Howie Kendrick- averaged WAR: 2.55. .322/.388/.520/.398
2. Ben Zobrist- averaged WAR: 1.85. .253/.338/.489/.363
3. Dustin Pedroia- averaged WAR: 1.5. .247/.357/.332/.321
Shortstop:
1. Alexei Ramirez- averaged WAR: 1.75. .278/.343/.443/.345
2. Jhonny Peralta- averaged WAR: 1.65. .299/.364/.506/.375
3. Erick Aybar- averaged WAR: 1.45. .309/.354/.421/.358
Third Base:
1. Kevin Youkilis- averaged WAR: 2.2. .272/.403/.519/.403
2. Maicer Izturis- averaged WAR: 1.95. .302/.366/.444/.359
3. Alex Rodriguez- averaged WAR: 1.85. .287/.360/.503/.378
Left Field:
1. Alex Gordon- averaged WAR: 1.55. .284/.343/.477/.359
2. Michael Brantley- averaged WAR: 1.45. .286/.353/.405/.338
3. Brett Gardner- averaged WAR: 1.35. .270/.348/.416/.334
Center Field:
1. Curtis Granderson- averaged WAR: 2.55. .280/.353/.626/.422
2. Denard Span- averaged WAR: 2.55. .295/.368/.379/.340
3. Jacoby Ellsbury- averaged WAR: 1.3. .296/.364/.449/.369
Right Field:
1. Jose Bautista- averaged WAR: 4.45. .342/.492/.785/.530
2. Matt Joyce- averaged WAR: 3. .367/.431/.639/.459
3. Carlos Quentin- averaged WAR: 1.7. .260/.350/.554/.390
4. Shin-Soo Choo- averaged WAR: 1.7. .247/.328/.382/.317
Designated Hitter:
1. Michael Young- averaged WAR: 1.35. .340/.383/.489/.380
2. Travis Hafner- averaged WAR: 1.25. .345/.409/.549/.410
3. David Ortiz- averaged WAR: 1.25. .309/.382/.552/.407
National League:
Catcher:
1. Buster Posey- averaged WAR: 1.65. .284/.368/.389/.341
2. Yadier Molina- averaged WAR: 1.45. .318/.364/.470/.354
3. Ramon Hernandez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .327/.375/.558/.398
Note: Until Posey gets dethroned as the best catcher in the league, he deserves the vote until someone is truly better than him.
First Base:
1. Joey Votto- averaged WAR: 2.7. .330/.453/.527/.424
2. Gaby Sanchez- averaged WAR: 2. .315/.396/.489/.388
3. Prince Fielder- averaged WAR: 1.8. .285/.380/.548/.396
Second Base:
1. Rickie Weeks- averaged WAR: 1.8. .288/.366/.490/.377
2. Brandon Phillips- averaged WAR: 1.5. .306/.365/.435/.357
3. Neil Walker- averaged WAR: 1.05. .263/.330/.425/.337
Shortstop:
1. Jose Reyes- averaged WAR: 1.85. .319/.370/.461/.367
2. Troy Tulowitzki- averaged WAR: 1.7. .245/.324/.495/.349
3. Alex Gonzalez- averaged WAR: 1.35. .268/.298/.400/.307
Third Base:
1. Pablo Sandoval- averaged WAR: 1.65. .313/.374/.530/.391
2. Ryan Roberts- averaged WAR: 1.55. .277/.391/.477/.389
3. Placido Polanco- averaged WAR: 1.55. .323/.363/.417/.348
Left Field:
1. Ryan Braun- averaged WAR: 2.5. .306/.398/.575/.430
2. Matt Holliday- averaged WAR: 2.25. .349/.439/.557/.433
3. Logan Morrison- averaged WAR: 1.1. .320/.413/.583/.427
Center Field:
1. Matt Kemp- averaged WAR: 2.65. .317/.395/.561/.421
2. Drew Stubbs- averaged WAR: 2. .262/.339/.413/.349
3. Andrew McCutchen- averaged WAR: 1.95. .246/.348/.453/.355
Right Field:
1. Lance Berkman- averaged WAR: 2.2. .350/.463/.650/.458
2. Carlos Beltran- averaged WAR: 2.1. .278/.372/.531/.389
3. Mike Stanton- averaged WAR: 1.5. .274/.346/.573/.395
Friday, May 27, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
All-Star Votes so far
Well, I just thought I should share who I think you should vote for if you were voting for the all-stars right now. I'll update this every week.
American League:
C- Russell Martin- best free agent pick-up of the off-season by the New York Yankees. He's already produced 1.7 rWAR so far this season. His slash line is .270/.374/.484. His OPS+ is 136. His OPS+ is the highest of his career. His slugging percentage is also the highest of his career. He definitely deserves to be an all-star this season. The next best catcher in the league so far is Alex Avila. Just interesting to think about.
1B- Adrian Gonzalez- rWAR: 2.0. If I had to bet on a player to make the all-star game, I would bet all the money I have on Gonzalez making the all-star game as a starter this year. Boston fans are going to vote him in as quickly as they can.
2b- Howie Kendrick- rWAR: 2.6 slightly higher than Ben Zobrist (Zobrist is not going to be voted in as an all-star, although he should be selected to fill the super-utility role on the all-star game). Kendrick will not be the starter though, either Pedroia or Cano will be voted in as the starter.
3B- Adrian Beltre or Kevin Youkilis- both tied at 1.7 rWAR so we'll compare the two real quick. Beltre is the better defender over Youkilis. Beltre's slash line is .260/.310/.491 and his OPS+ is 118. Youkilis' slash line is .271/.402/.536 and his OPS+ is 157. You have to really value Beltre's defense to select him over Youkilis. I'd rather have Youkilis in the all-star game though.
SS- Maicer Izturis or Jhonny Peralta- Izturis' rWAR is 1.6 and Peralta's rWAR is 1.5. It's up to you where you think Izturis is a shortstop or second baseman. It's kind of a coin flip at this point. Jeter or Alexei Ramirez will probably end up as the starting shortstop though, which might be a disappointment.
LF-(I'm breaking them up by position) Alex Gordon- his rWAR is only 0.9 but he's an interesting story, at the very least. Brett Gardner or Michael Brantley will probably pass him as worthy all-stars at the left field position. I'm still rooting for Alex Gordon. I was hoping the Royals would have traded him to the Twins but I don't think that's happening anymore. His slash line is .276/.339/.443.
CF-Curtis Granderson- his rWAR is 2.1. He's actually having a pretty great season. He's making every team involved in the Austin Jackson-Curtis Granderson-Ian Kennedy trade look like they got exactly what they wanted, even though, it's surprising that the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer in this trade.
RF-Jose Bautista his rWAR is 3.9. He'll be voted in as the starter in a landslide. He's the most productive battter in the Major Leagues by far. He is looking ridiculous.
National League:
C- Buster Posey- this should be the first of many all-star seasons. His rWAR is 1.6 so far, which is pretty impressive. Posey is one of my faborite players in the league. His slash line is .278/.367/.389. His OPS+ is 109. I would like to see his slugging percentage a little bit higher. But he is still having a pretty good season so far. The second best catcher in the league is Yadier Molina.
1B- Joey Votto- rWAR: 2.8. He is the most productive player that's not named Jose Bautista in the Major Leagues. I don't know if he'll be the starter over Albert Pujols in this year's all-star game but with Pujols and his slow start may keep him out of the starting spot.
2B- Brandon Phillips- rWAR 1.7 slight lead over Rickie Weeks. I think Phillips would be interesting on a roster with Molina, Pujols, and any other Cardinals. I'm kind of excited to see if Phillips would get attacked by the Cardinals players on the roster.
3B- Placido Polanco- his rWAR is 1.5. I know I'm as surprised as you are. I'm sure he will not be the best third basemen in the league much longer.
SS- Jose Reyes- his rWAR is 1.8. He's playing very well this year. I'm sure this season will land him a massive contract. As long as he's healthy he'll do well and be the starter.
LF-Matt Holliday- his rWAR is 2.5. Holliday is having a great season besides missing time with his appendectomy. It'll be interesting to see if his contract takes away money from the Albert Pujols extensions.
CF-Matt Kemp- his rWAR is 2.1- Kemp has been on fire this season and definitely deserves to be an all-star this season.
RF-Lance Berkman- his rWAR is 2.1. This free agent signing surprised me. I thought this was going to be the worst free agent signing but he's having a good season, as well.
American League:
C- Russell Martin- best free agent pick-up of the off-season by the New York Yankees. He's already produced 1.7 rWAR so far this season. His slash line is .270/.374/.484. His OPS+ is 136. His OPS+ is the highest of his career. His slugging percentage is also the highest of his career. He definitely deserves to be an all-star this season. The next best catcher in the league so far is Alex Avila. Just interesting to think about.
1B- Adrian Gonzalez- rWAR: 2.0. If I had to bet on a player to make the all-star game, I would bet all the money I have on Gonzalez making the all-star game as a starter this year. Boston fans are going to vote him in as quickly as they can.
2b- Howie Kendrick- rWAR: 2.6 slightly higher than Ben Zobrist (Zobrist is not going to be voted in as an all-star, although he should be selected to fill the super-utility role on the all-star game). Kendrick will not be the starter though, either Pedroia or Cano will be voted in as the starter.
3B- Adrian Beltre or Kevin Youkilis- both tied at 1.7 rWAR so we'll compare the two real quick. Beltre is the better defender over Youkilis. Beltre's slash line is .260/.310/.491 and his OPS+ is 118. Youkilis' slash line is .271/.402/.536 and his OPS+ is 157. You have to really value Beltre's defense to select him over Youkilis. I'd rather have Youkilis in the all-star game though.
SS- Maicer Izturis or Jhonny Peralta- Izturis' rWAR is 1.6 and Peralta's rWAR is 1.5. It's up to you where you think Izturis is a shortstop or second baseman. It's kind of a coin flip at this point. Jeter or Alexei Ramirez will probably end up as the starting shortstop though, which might be a disappointment.
LF-(I'm breaking them up by position) Alex Gordon- his rWAR is only 0.9 but he's an interesting story, at the very least. Brett Gardner or Michael Brantley will probably pass him as worthy all-stars at the left field position. I'm still rooting for Alex Gordon. I was hoping the Royals would have traded him to the Twins but I don't think that's happening anymore. His slash line is .276/.339/.443.
CF-Curtis Granderson- his rWAR is 2.1. He's actually having a pretty great season. He's making every team involved in the Austin Jackson-Curtis Granderson-Ian Kennedy trade look like they got exactly what they wanted, even though, it's surprising that the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer in this trade.
RF-Jose Bautista his rWAR is 3.9. He'll be voted in as the starter in a landslide. He's the most productive battter in the Major Leagues by far. He is looking ridiculous.
National League:
C- Buster Posey- this should be the first of many all-star seasons. His rWAR is 1.6 so far, which is pretty impressive. Posey is one of my faborite players in the league. His slash line is .278/.367/.389. His OPS+ is 109. I would like to see his slugging percentage a little bit higher. But he is still having a pretty good season so far. The second best catcher in the league is Yadier Molina.
1B- Joey Votto- rWAR: 2.8. He is the most productive player that's not named Jose Bautista in the Major Leagues. I don't know if he'll be the starter over Albert Pujols in this year's all-star game but with Pujols and his slow start may keep him out of the starting spot.
2B- Brandon Phillips- rWAR 1.7 slight lead over Rickie Weeks. I think Phillips would be interesting on a roster with Molina, Pujols, and any other Cardinals. I'm kind of excited to see if Phillips would get attacked by the Cardinals players on the roster.
3B- Placido Polanco- his rWAR is 1.5. I know I'm as surprised as you are. I'm sure he will not be the best third basemen in the league much longer.
SS- Jose Reyes- his rWAR is 1.8. He's playing very well this year. I'm sure this season will land him a massive contract. As long as he's healthy he'll do well and be the starter.
LF-Matt Holliday- his rWAR is 2.5. Holliday is having a great season besides missing time with his appendectomy. It'll be interesting to see if his contract takes away money from the Albert Pujols extensions.
CF-Matt Kemp- his rWAR is 2.1- Kemp has been on fire this season and definitely deserves to be an all-star this season.
RF-Lance Berkman- his rWAR is 2.1. This free agent signing surprised me. I thought this was going to be the worst free agent signing but he's having a good season, as well.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Random Player Write-up #59 centerfielder
Random Player Write-up:
#59 Centerfielder Clyde Milan
Career: 7.94. 5 year consecutive: 4.34. Average: 0.5. 3 Highest: 2.99. 10 Highest: 7.07. All-Star Seasons: 2. MVP Seasons: 0.
Best season: 1912- .306/.377/.379 with a wOBA of .390. His average was his third highest, his OBP was 3rd highest, his Slugging percentage was 5th highest and his wOBA was his second highest.
His 1911 season ranks higher in each of those categories. Why is the 1912 season ranked higher than the 1911? Well, in 1912 he created 90 runs which ranked 8th in the league. In the 1911 season he created 94 runs which ranked him 9th in the league. So, already we have Milan creating more runs in 1911 but in context the runs created in 1912 are more valuable. His offensive WAR in 1912 put him in 9th place in the league with 4.5 so it was slightly higher than the 4.4 offensive WAR that was put up in 1911. Milan was ranked as a better defensive player in 1912 then he was in 1911. In 1912, Milan put up a defensive WAR of 0.9 compared to the defensive WAR of 0.3. Until we research and prove that Milan was not a better defensive player in 1912 compared to 1911, we have to rank the 1912 season above 1911. For those who do not believe that WAR effectively evaluates players, the MVP voters seem to think that his 1912 season was better than his 1911 season. He finished 4th in the MVP voting in 1912 and 9th in 1911. So based on that, Milan seemed to have a slightly better season in 1912 then he did in 1911. This is another instance of WAR matching up with the MVP votes.
John Olerud and the Hall of Fame
John Olerud was probably most famous for wearing a protective helmet even when he was on the field instead of a baseball cap. There's a possibly apocryphal story about Rickey Henderson, who upon joining Olerud and the New York Mets, said to Olerud that there used to be a player who wore a helmet out on the field, I can't remember his name. Most people seem to claim that the story is indeed false. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, either way.
John Olerud retired in 2005. He received four votes in the 2011 Hall of Fame voting. To be fair to Olerud, the 2011 ballot was pretty loaded and there was about 10 players on there who deserved to be voted for. However, Olerud fell off the ballot after his only season on the ballot. Olerud retired with a slash line of .295/.398/.465. He had 2239 hits, 500 doubles, 255 homeruns, 1230 RBI's, and 1139 runs scored. He won only three gold gloves, only made two all-star teams, and only finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting once (in 1993).
I have Olerud ranked as the 23rd best first baseman of all-time with a score of 36.55 which puts him above the threshold of being a hall-of-famer (in my ranking system 34 represents a hall of famer). Olerud nearly put up 60 career WAR, averaged between rWAR and fWAR. His career WAR ranks 20th all-time for first basemen (ahead of hall-of-famers Bill Terry, George Sisler, Tony Perez, and other non-hall-of-famers such as Don Mattingly). The Hall of Fame is not just a Hall of WAR, otherwise, we would just look at the career marks in WAR of all eligible players and just put them in based on their career WAR. Olerud's highest five consecutive stretch of WAR was 27.5 which ranks him 30th all-time in score of first basemen, which is lower than you'd expect a hall of famer to be, I would suppose. Some of the players above him are non-hall-of-famers such as Mattingly, Will Clark, and Dolf Camilli. His average WAR per season ranks him 25th among first basemen. He averaged 3.5 WAR per season which is still pretty impressive. This mark ties him with Cap Anson and above such players as Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, among others. His highest 3 seasons (non-consecutive) rank him 16th among first basemen. In those three seasons, he put up a total of 22.3 WAR which is fairly impressive. His highest ten years (non-consecutive) rank him 22nd among first basemen. Overall, his numbers suggest that he's among the top 25 first basemen of all-time and shold have received more support for the Hall of Fame.
A brief comparison with Don Mattingly: One of the common comparisons made between Olerud and other first basemen usually concerns Don Mattingly. For whatever reason, people suggest Mattingly is a clear-cut hall-of-famer. I don't see that's the case. He would have had to put nearly 10 more WAR in his career for me to really consider him. His five year peak is impressive (ranking 22nd among first baseman) but he never put up an MVP quality season but he put 4 all-star seasons. Olerud, on the other hand, put up a total of three all-star seasons (missing a fourth in 1997 by 0.1 WAR) and put up two MVP seasons (1993 and 1998). I have Olerud having a lesser peak but ranked higher, not only because of his better career numbers (which Mattingly couldn't do because of injury concerns) but because he has a higher average WAR, higher 3 non-consecutive seasons, and higher 10 non-consecutive seasons. Basically, Olerud ranks higher because he has a higher score on everything except 5 consecutive years and his two best seasons are better seasons than Mattingly ever put up.
Conclusion: I'm not saying definitively that my ranking system shows who is a hall of famer and who is not, although I believe it does. I believe that Olerud is a better candidate for the Hall of Fame than many of those already in there. I hope that Olerud's case gets re-opened later by the Veteran's Committee and I hope he gets into the Hall of Fame.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Based on an interview with Alan Hirsch
The interview with Alan Hirsch can be found on Fangraphs here.
Let's begin.
"First, there was his belief that statistics alone could identify top prospects. Jeremy Brown and Brant Colamarino are a good place to start if we’re talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets through statistical analysis."
Another good place to start would be to judge Billy Beane's acquisitions of minor league and major league talent. I am throwing out an idea out there. I don't think the belief was that in statistics alone; some of the idea was there so that they could save money on the draft. For instance, Jeremy Brown was a first round pick but had to agree to a lesser contract (read: signing bonus) upon signing with tthe Oakland A's. There are some shortcomings when analyzing amateur athletes and projecting them into the Minor Leagues and eventually the Major Leagues even if you use traditional scouting methods. In your previous response, you talk about the success of the Twins, who are usually defined by using traditional scouting methods. However, I could easily pick out players that they have drafted that would indicate that we should already be talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets. Furthermore, it's not as if the Twins select undervalued assets. The majority of their picks the lst few years have been "toolsy, athletic" outfielders and pitchers who throw strikes instead of walking a lot of batters. Here's just a small sample of failed first round picks by the Twins. Chris Parmelee, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson. The conversation might need to be, why is it so difficult to project amateur players into professional settings? The success rate in the Major League draft is incredibly low. Perhaps there needs to be a revamping of how teams view the draft and how to project those same players.
"That pitchers have some control over the outcome of batted balls is established if you look at pitchers’ career data, particularly comparing pairs of pitchers who spent most of their careers with the same team (thus controlling to a large degree for ballpark and defense). Pitchers are a complicated package. They succeed as a result of different combinations of skills reflected in walks, strikeouts, home runs, AND weaker-hit balls that generate easy outs."
Well I'll look at that. The Twins certainly believe in this philosophy that a pitcher gets in trouble if he walks players. Part of the reason for this I believe is that the BABIP is much higher with players on base because it's easier to find a hole when a player is slightly out of position. I haven't done enough research to prove this, however.
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were teammates with the Atlanta Braves from 1993-2002. They are probably our best examples of looking at paired teammates who played for the same team and everything. Smoltz's BABIP during that time ranged from .268-.300, Maddux's was .244-.324, Glavine's was .248-.320.
Smoltz's low was .268 which was in 1993, that year Maddux's was .269, and that year Glavine's was .280.
Smoltz's high was .300 which was in 1998, that year Maddux's was .262, and Glavine's was .265.
Maddux's high was .324 which was in 1999, that year Glavine's was .309, and Smoltz's was .289.
Maddux's low was .244 in 1995, Glavine's was .281, and Smoltz's was .288.
Glavine's high was .320 in 1994, Smoltz's was .271, and Maddux was .253.
Glavine's low was .248 in 1997, Smoltz's was .297, and Maddux was .280.
Their career numbers for BABIP are similar Smoltz at .283, Maddux at .281, and Glavine at .280.
It doesn't seem like the pitchers have much control over their BABIP as they are very similar even when we account for the fact they were pitching with basically the same factors each year. If pitchers are able to control weak ground balls and such shouldn't Maddux and Glavine have much lower BABIP's then Smoltz? Glavine and Maddux both much lower K rates then Smoltz and so would need to generate more outs in the field, however, their BABIP's are only slightly lower than Smoltz's. It seems that while they were playing with the same defenses that BABIP is largely luck and that pitchers do not have control over it. I'll revisit this later mainly to find a better way to look at it.
Let's begin.
"First, there was his belief that statistics alone could identify top prospects. Jeremy Brown and Brant Colamarino are a good place to start if we’re talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets through statistical analysis."
Another good place to start would be to judge Billy Beane's acquisitions of minor league and major league talent. I am throwing out an idea out there. I don't think the belief was that in statistics alone; some of the idea was there so that they could save money on the draft. For instance, Jeremy Brown was a first round pick but had to agree to a lesser contract (read: signing bonus) upon signing with tthe Oakland A's. There are some shortcomings when analyzing amateur athletes and projecting them into the Minor Leagues and eventually the Major Leagues even if you use traditional scouting methods. In your previous response, you talk about the success of the Twins, who are usually defined by using traditional scouting methods. However, I could easily pick out players that they have drafted that would indicate that we should already be talking about shortcomings in identifying undervalued assets. Furthermore, it's not as if the Twins select undervalued assets. The majority of their picks the lst few years have been "toolsy, athletic" outfielders and pitchers who throw strikes instead of walking a lot of batters. Here's just a small sample of failed first round picks by the Twins. Chris Parmelee, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson. The conversation might need to be, why is it so difficult to project amateur players into professional settings? The success rate in the Major League draft is incredibly low. Perhaps there needs to be a revamping of how teams view the draft and how to project those same players.
"That pitchers have some control over the outcome of batted balls is established if you look at pitchers’ career data, particularly comparing pairs of pitchers who spent most of their careers with the same team (thus controlling to a large degree for ballpark and defense). Pitchers are a complicated package. They succeed as a result of different combinations of skills reflected in walks, strikeouts, home runs, AND weaker-hit balls that generate easy outs."
Well I'll look at that. The Twins certainly believe in this philosophy that a pitcher gets in trouble if he walks players. Part of the reason for this I believe is that the BABIP is much higher with players on base because it's easier to find a hole when a player is slightly out of position. I haven't done enough research to prove this, however.
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were teammates with the Atlanta Braves from 1993-2002. They are probably our best examples of looking at paired teammates who played for the same team and everything. Smoltz's BABIP during that time ranged from .268-.300, Maddux's was .244-.324, Glavine's was .248-.320.
Smoltz's low was .268 which was in 1993, that year Maddux's was .269, and that year Glavine's was .280.
Smoltz's high was .300 which was in 1998, that year Maddux's was .262, and Glavine's was .265.
Maddux's high was .324 which was in 1999, that year Glavine's was .309, and Smoltz's was .289.
Maddux's low was .244 in 1995, Glavine's was .281, and Smoltz's was .288.
Glavine's high was .320 in 1994, Smoltz's was .271, and Maddux was .253.
Glavine's low was .248 in 1997, Smoltz's was .297, and Maddux was .280.
Their career numbers for BABIP are similar Smoltz at .283, Maddux at .281, and Glavine at .280.
It doesn't seem like the pitchers have much control over their BABIP as they are very similar even when we account for the fact they were pitching with basically the same factors each year. If pitchers are able to control weak ground balls and such shouldn't Maddux and Glavine have much lower BABIP's then Smoltz? Glavine and Maddux both much lower K rates then Smoltz and so would need to generate more outs in the field, however, their BABIP's are only slightly lower than Smoltz's. It seems that while they were playing with the same defenses that BABIP is largely luck and that pitchers do not have control over it. I'll revisit this later mainly to find a better way to look at it.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Fangraphs has published an article about what the Twins should do..check it out here.
I just wanted to let everyone know that it was "absurd" of me to say Bill Smith is not a good general manager.
I just wanted to let everyone know that it was "absurd" of me to say Bill Smith is not a good general manager.
Bill Smith grading- 2009 off-season to 2010 off-season
1. Traded Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy- This was a fantastic trade. Hardy put up a fWAR of 2.4 and a rWAR of 1.3. Meanwhile, Gomez put up a negative rWAR. Hardy, when healthy, was one of the top shortstops in the American League. That probably has more to say about the shortstops in the American League than it does about Hardy. However, Gomez was one of the pieces that the New York Mets traded for Johan Santana. The New York Mets traded Kevin Mulvey, Phillip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana. Mulvey was traded for Jon Rauch. Humber was granted free agency (read: non-tendered). Gomez was traded for Hardy. The only player that stayed with the team was Guerra. Smith realized that the package he received for Santana was merely not very good and gave up on the prospects. This realization should have been made before the Santana trade (see post before about the prospects that were listed in the 2008 Basecall America Prospect Handbook).
Grade for the trade: A-
2. Re-Signed Carl Pavano- Good re-signing. Pavano put up a fWAR of 3.2 plus he had an awesome moustache. That moustache is easily worth another 1 WAR.
Grade: A
3. Traded Boof Bonser for Chris Province- Boof Bonser was part of the greatest trade in Twins history (hyperbole to be sure, but certainly probable) that netted the Twins Liriano and Nathan. Bonser was basically at replacement level for the Red Sox and was traded in that season, as well. Province is a relief pitcher in the Twins system.
Grade: C
4. Signed Jim Thome as a free agent- probably Smith's greatest move of the off-season. Who could have predicted that a 39 year old would put up a fWAR of 3.6, an OPS+ of 178 and basically would have negated the fact that the Twins lost Morneau for half of the year? Perhaps Bill Smith predicted this and that's why he made the move.
Grade: A+
5. Signed Orlando Hudson as a free agent- Another solid pick-up by Smith. Orlando Hudson had a reputation of signing the free agent deals late and not getting a long term deal. Hudson put up a fWAR of 3.1 and was a solid player all around.
Grade: A+
6. Jason Pridie was picked up on waivers by both the Yankees and Mets. The only reason that this is important is that Pridie was acquired in the Delmon Young fiasco. He was supposed to be a starter right away, that never happened.
Hooray for giving up on players acquired in bad trades! Grade: D (passing for admitting your faults)
7. Signed Jason Repko to a free agent deal- Repko put up a rWAR of 1.5. He was a solid pick-up, as well. I don't understand why the Twins would consciously start Alexei Casilla when they are able to pick-up free agents such as Hudson or Repko?
Grade: B+
8. Traded Joe Testa and Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. The day of the trade the Minnesota Twins were 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox. They were 56-46 with a winning percentage of .549. After the trade the Twins won at a .679 pace and won 94 games. Rauch had been struggling in the closer role in the month of July. Capps hactually had a pretty good rest of the season. It's arguable that the Twins would have won the division without making the trade. However, The Twins decided to trade away Ramos. It's true that Ramos would be a back-up catcher to Joe Mauer. It's also true that Joe Mauer has a history of injury problems. It's even more true that after signing the biggest contract in Twins history, the Twins would let Mauer rest even more. Finally, it's true that Mauer could be moved out of the catcher spot so tht he can be healthier. The Twins looked at these different ideas and decided that Ramos for Capps would be fine. The Twins would still have Drew Butera to back up Mauer. Butera was more of a defensive catcher who currently has a negative OPS+ right now. There were rumors around the trading deadline that Ramos was supposed to be part of a package to get Cliff Lee and was pulled out of that trade. I don't know if that was true. But if you really think Capps would have been more valuable then Lee, you're crazy. Also, Capps was non-tendered at the beginning of the season and could have been had for free. However, the Twins decided to not get him then.
Grade: C-
9. Traded Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes- Oh wait, the Twins weren't done revamping their bullpen. They decided to add Fuentes. He actually had a pretty good rest of the season for the Twins and was a solid pick-up. However, they decided not to offer arbitration to him and he signed with the Athletics after the season.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A, every move seemed to work out and the Twins woun 94 games.
Grade for the trade: A-
2. Re-Signed Carl Pavano- Good re-signing. Pavano put up a fWAR of 3.2 plus he had an awesome moustache. That moustache is easily worth another 1 WAR.
Grade: A
3. Traded Boof Bonser for Chris Province- Boof Bonser was part of the greatest trade in Twins history (hyperbole to be sure, but certainly probable) that netted the Twins Liriano and Nathan. Bonser was basically at replacement level for the Red Sox and was traded in that season, as well. Province is a relief pitcher in the Twins system.
Grade: C
4. Signed Jim Thome as a free agent- probably Smith's greatest move of the off-season. Who could have predicted that a 39 year old would put up a fWAR of 3.6, an OPS+ of 178 and basically would have negated the fact that the Twins lost Morneau for half of the year? Perhaps Bill Smith predicted this and that's why he made the move.
Grade: A+
5. Signed Orlando Hudson as a free agent- Another solid pick-up by Smith. Orlando Hudson had a reputation of signing the free agent deals late and not getting a long term deal. Hudson put up a fWAR of 3.1 and was a solid player all around.
Grade: A+
6. Jason Pridie was picked up on waivers by both the Yankees and Mets. The only reason that this is important is that Pridie was acquired in the Delmon Young fiasco. He was supposed to be a starter right away, that never happened.
Hooray for giving up on players acquired in bad trades! Grade: D (passing for admitting your faults)
7. Signed Jason Repko to a free agent deal- Repko put up a rWAR of 1.5. He was a solid pick-up, as well. I don't understand why the Twins would consciously start Alexei Casilla when they are able to pick-up free agents such as Hudson or Repko?
Grade: B+
8. Traded Joe Testa and Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. The day of the trade the Minnesota Twins were 1.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox. They were 56-46 with a winning percentage of .549. After the trade the Twins won at a .679 pace and won 94 games. Rauch had been struggling in the closer role in the month of July. Capps hactually had a pretty good rest of the season. It's arguable that the Twins would have won the division without making the trade. However, The Twins decided to trade away Ramos. It's true that Ramos would be a back-up catcher to Joe Mauer. It's also true that Joe Mauer has a history of injury problems. It's even more true that after signing the biggest contract in Twins history, the Twins would let Mauer rest even more. Finally, it's true that Mauer could be moved out of the catcher spot so tht he can be healthier. The Twins looked at these different ideas and decided that Ramos for Capps would be fine. The Twins would still have Drew Butera to back up Mauer. Butera was more of a defensive catcher who currently has a negative OPS+ right now. There were rumors around the trading deadline that Ramos was supposed to be part of a package to get Cliff Lee and was pulled out of that trade. I don't know if that was true. But if you really think Capps would have been more valuable then Lee, you're crazy. Also, Capps was non-tendered at the beginning of the season and could have been had for free. However, the Twins decided to not get him then.
Grade: C-
9. Traded Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes- Oh wait, the Twins weren't done revamping their bullpen. They decided to add Fuentes. He actually had a pretty good rest of the season for the Twins and was a solid pick-up. However, they decided not to offer arbitration to him and he signed with the Athletics after the season.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A, every move seemed to work out and the Twins woun 94 games.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Bill Smith Minnesota Twins GM 2008 off-season to end of 2009 season
1. Signed Bobby Keppel. Bobby Keppel was replacement level with an ERA+ of 91. He won game 163 over the Tigers. Grade: C
2. Signed Sean Henn- pitched 14 games with an ERA of 7.15. Later sent to the Baltimore Orioles as part of a conditional deal. Grade: N/A (not really an imortant deal)
3. Signed R.A. Dickey-pitched 35 games with a WAR of 0.3 and an ERA+ of 95. He was basically what you would expect from a AAAA player who had to pitch. Grade: C.
4. Signed Joe Crede- He stepped into the black hole that has been the Twins 3B position over the last few years. He produced a WAR of 1.6 with an OPS+ of 83. He was the best third basemen besides Danny Valencia over the last five years. I enjoyed watching him play. Grade: B+ (because I can).
5. Traded Tyler Ladendorf for Orlando Cabrera. Ladendorf is not exactly the best prospect but he is in AA right now (2011 season) his OPS's have been pretty low. He appears to be more of a speed guy as he has 35 career stolen bases in the minor leagues while only being caught 8 times. Cabrera produced a .289/.313/.450 in the games he played with the Twins. His WAR with the Twins was 0.3, which wasn't too bad. I thought he did better than he really did. Grade: B
6. Traded Yohan Pino for Carl Pavano. Pino is a 27 year old who has never appeared in the Majors. Pavano's WAR was 0.8 with the Twins, he had a 95 ERA+ and won 5 games. Bill Smith clearly won this trade and Pavano was totally worth a 27 year old player who has not appeared in the Major Leagues.
7. Traded Kevin Mulvey for Jon Rauch. YAY! Kevin Mulvey who was acquired in the Johan Santana was being traded to get a middling relief pitcher in Jon Rauch. Rauch actually did pretty well while with the Twins. Grade: B
8. Signed Ron Mahay as a free agent. Mahay did alright with the Twins producing a 0.2 WAR slightly above what a random player signed would do. Mahay produced slightly above replacement level. Grade: C+
Off-season 2008 to end of season 2009 Grade: C+.
Best Acquisition: Joe Crede
Notes: Didn't do anything too major, just a series of small moves that added up. The Twins won the division in 163 games against the Tigers. He usually does pretty well when he's adding smaller parts to the team instead of making major deals (i.e. The Delmon Young fiasco, The Johan Santana trade).
2. Signed Sean Henn- pitched 14 games with an ERA of 7.15. Later sent to the Baltimore Orioles as part of a conditional deal. Grade: N/A (not really an imortant deal)
3. Signed R.A. Dickey-pitched 35 games with a WAR of 0.3 and an ERA+ of 95. He was basically what you would expect from a AAAA player who had to pitch. Grade: C.
4. Signed Joe Crede- He stepped into the black hole that has been the Twins 3B position over the last few years. He produced a WAR of 1.6 with an OPS+ of 83. He was the best third basemen besides Danny Valencia over the last five years. I enjoyed watching him play. Grade: B+ (because I can).
5. Traded Tyler Ladendorf for Orlando Cabrera. Ladendorf is not exactly the best prospect but he is in AA right now (2011 season) his OPS's have been pretty low. He appears to be more of a speed guy as he has 35 career stolen bases in the minor leagues while only being caught 8 times. Cabrera produced a .289/.313/.450 in the games he played with the Twins. His WAR with the Twins was 0.3, which wasn't too bad. I thought he did better than he really did. Grade: B
6. Traded Yohan Pino for Carl Pavano. Pino is a 27 year old who has never appeared in the Majors. Pavano's WAR was 0.8 with the Twins, he had a 95 ERA+ and won 5 games. Bill Smith clearly won this trade and Pavano was totally worth a 27 year old player who has not appeared in the Major Leagues.
7. Traded Kevin Mulvey for Jon Rauch. YAY! Kevin Mulvey who was acquired in the Johan Santana was being traded to get a middling relief pitcher in Jon Rauch. Rauch actually did pretty well while with the Twins. Grade: B
8. Signed Ron Mahay as a free agent. Mahay did alright with the Twins producing a 0.2 WAR slightly above what a random player signed would do. Mahay produced slightly above replacement level. Grade: C+
Off-season 2008 to end of season 2009 Grade: C+.
Best Acquisition: Joe Crede
Notes: Didn't do anything too major, just a series of small moves that added up. The Twins won the division in 163 games against the Tigers. He usually does pretty well when he's adding smaller parts to the team instead of making major deals (i.e. The Delmon Young fiasco, The Johan Santana trade).
Player Rankings First Basemen
Random player write-up. My random number selected the #97 ranked first basemen. That would be Justin Morneau.
Justin Morneau: Overall Score: 16.14. Career score: 4.27. 5 Consecutive: 3.92. Average: 0.53. 3 Highest: 2.65. 10 Highest: 4.27. All-Star Seasons: 1. MVP Seasons: 0. According to WAR, 2010 was his best season. He only played in 81 games that year and suffered a concussion that would knock him out of the rest of the season and make him struggle in 2011. His averaged WAR was 5.35, his slash line was .345/.437/.618, his wOBA was .447. It was his best season by all those standards as well. However, he did not even place in the MVP voting and won his MVP award in 2006. In 2006, his slash line was .321/.375/.559 and had 130 RBI's. His teammate Joe Mauer had a better season overall. His slash line was .347/.429/.507. But the writers of the BBWAA do love their RBI's and Mauer did not have enough of those. He placed 2nd in RBI's. David Ortiz had seven more and also had a higher WAR than Morneau. The MVP selection seemed to be a bit bizarre even to a Twins fan, such as me. Morneau will probably place higher in the top 100 list as his career goes on. That is unless his struggles thus far in 2011 continue for a long period of time.
Justin Morneau: Overall Score: 16.14. Career score: 4.27. 5 Consecutive: 3.92. Average: 0.53. 3 Highest: 2.65. 10 Highest: 4.27. All-Star Seasons: 1. MVP Seasons: 0. According to WAR, 2010 was his best season. He only played in 81 games that year and suffered a concussion that would knock him out of the rest of the season and make him struggle in 2011. His averaged WAR was 5.35, his slash line was .345/.437/.618, his wOBA was .447. It was his best season by all those standards as well. However, he did not even place in the MVP voting and won his MVP award in 2006. In 2006, his slash line was .321/.375/.559 and had 130 RBI's. His teammate Joe Mauer had a better season overall. His slash line was .347/.429/.507. But the writers of the BBWAA do love their RBI's and Mauer did not have enough of those. He placed 2nd in RBI's. David Ortiz had seven more and also had a higher WAR than Morneau. The MVP selection seemed to be a bit bizarre even to a Twins fan, such as me. Morneau will probably place higher in the top 100 list as his career goes on. That is unless his struggles thus far in 2011 continue for a long period of time.
The 2011 Season thus far
My Minnesota Twins are 12-26, last place in the American League Central. Of course some of this can be attributed to the fact that Joe Mauer has only played 9 games and Justin Morneau just hasn't turned it on after his concussion last year. Some more can be attributed to the fact that Francisco Liriano, even with his no-hitter hasn't done very well either.
If you remember correctly, meaning you've read my blog, I took some flak for suggesting that the Twins were not going to have a very good season and openly questioning GM Bill Smith's move this off-season. So we'll begin looking at some of the comments that people made to me and show where I'm right and where I'm wrong.
1. "Young is not nearly as terrible as you make him out to be, he broke out last year, lost weight, and will continue to get better, oh and he's 24 with what, 4 years of experience already? Bartlett couldn't stay healthy and Garza has continued to be a headache, but a good player, ill give him that."
What is people's fascination with Delmon Young? I don't get it. He's played 19 games this year because he missed some time with an oblique injury (can we start him on the Twins calling players injury prone train yet?). Since returning from the injury, so far, he is 1-12 with seven strikeouts. In 69 at-bats he has yet to hit his first home run. His slash line is .203/.250/.246. He's done a remarkable thing so far, his on-base percentage is higher than his slugging percentage. Impressive indeed. He's hitting a higher percentage of groundballs than usual, while lowering the percentage of line drives he has hit. His batting average will improve as his BABIP is .255 and last year it was a .312 (and the years before it was .338) so it's possible he improves for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Jason Bartlett who can't stay healthy, has played in 34 games with a slash line of .254/.307/.297 and is likely to improve that batting average as well for the rest of the season. While Matt Garza is 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.17 ERA, he is likely to improve his ERA when his FIP starts to match up with his ERA more.
We're going to play one of Rob Neyer's old favorite games. The Player A game. The players are all free agent relievers the Twins had on the team last year.
Player A: 101 ERA+, .764 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.4 K/9, 0 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-2 9 games, 5 saves, 1.138 WHIP, 3.7 K/9, ERA 6.52
Player B: 147 ERA+, .900 WHIP, 5.4 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-1, 6 Games, 5 saves, .800 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5.40 ERA
Player C: 90 ERA+, 1.2 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 1-1, 11 games, 9 saves, .973 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.92 ERA
Player D: 143 ERA+, .911 WHIP, 4.8 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 10.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-0, 5 Games, .667 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 0.00 ERA.
Player A: Matt Capps
Player B: Jon Rauch
Player C: Brian Fuentes
Player D: Jesse Crain
Not shown on my blog, but the same commenter said that Jesse Crain cannot pitch to left-handers, as well as can't perform in save situations. In 2011, left-handers against Crain have gone .115/.233/.115 while against Capps: .242/.265/.455. In 2010, left-handers went .196/.281/.333 against Crain (remember he can't pitch to left-handers) while against Capps they went .248/.301/.353.
Drew Butera who the Twins are using as backup catcher (well with Mauer's injury and his injury history it's more like a starter) has managed to put up a -18 OPS+, that's a negative sign. Butera might be putting up the worst numbers in the league. Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos who was so expendable in the Matt Capps trade is putting up a slash line of .267/.333/.419, while not spectacular is so much better than Butera's numbers that I do not even have to comment on it.
Finally, my favorite player double play combination Alexei Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka/Luke Hughes. I'll concede that J.J. Hardy isn't really healthy this year but in his 12 games he has put up a slash line of .325/.386/.550 and has out homered the Casilla, Nishioka, Hughes combination (although Trevor Plouffe has been doing pretty well). Nishioka's leg was broken by Nick Swisher in an effort to break up the double play, so I guess I will lay off of him. Nishioka was supposed to be an international star...I don't think that's working out.
This is what my commenter friend said: "Hardy is oft injured and costing $5m, Nishioka and Casilla are not injury prone, potential international stars (which is good for the team in every way), both play solid D at 2 positions, bring speed and combined cost less than Hardy (and I'm even a Hardy fan, that's a smart move)"
Somehow, I doubt that Casilla is an international star. He's not a star on any level. Casilla's OPS+ is a 42. I do not think I have to say anymore.
The 2011 Twins have three players with an OPS+ of over 100, Denard Span (101), Jason Kubel (145), and Trevor Plouffe (183).
It's an embarassing team right now, until Mauer gets back, until Morneau starts hitting again, Liriano pitches well again, and more players start playing better, basically. Handing out starting positions to Butera, Casilla, and Young and handing Capps a $7 million dollar contract is a recipe for disaster and we're seeing it unfold.
If you remember correctly, meaning you've read my blog, I took some flak for suggesting that the Twins were not going to have a very good season and openly questioning GM Bill Smith's move this off-season. So we'll begin looking at some of the comments that people made to me and show where I'm right and where I'm wrong.
1. "Young is not nearly as terrible as you make him out to be, he broke out last year, lost weight, and will continue to get better, oh and he's 24 with what, 4 years of experience already? Bartlett couldn't stay healthy and Garza has continued to be a headache, but a good player, ill give him that."
What is people's fascination with Delmon Young? I don't get it. He's played 19 games this year because he missed some time with an oblique injury (can we start him on the Twins calling players injury prone train yet?). Since returning from the injury, so far, he is 1-12 with seven strikeouts. In 69 at-bats he has yet to hit his first home run. His slash line is .203/.250/.246. He's done a remarkable thing so far, his on-base percentage is higher than his slugging percentage. Impressive indeed. He's hitting a higher percentage of groundballs than usual, while lowering the percentage of line drives he has hit. His batting average will improve as his BABIP is .255 and last year it was a .312 (and the years before it was .338) so it's possible he improves for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Jason Bartlett who can't stay healthy, has played in 34 games with a slash line of .254/.307/.297 and is likely to improve that batting average as well for the rest of the season. While Matt Garza is 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.17 ERA, he is likely to improve his ERA when his FIP starts to match up with his ERA more.
We're going to play one of Rob Neyer's old favorite games. The Player A game. The players are all free agent relievers the Twins had on the team last year.
Player A: 101 ERA+, .764 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.4 K/9, 0 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-2 9 games, 5 saves, 1.138 WHIP, 3.7 K/9, ERA 6.52
Player B: 147 ERA+, .900 WHIP, 5.4 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-1, 6 Games, 5 saves, .800 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5.40 ERA
Player C: 90 ERA+, 1.2 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 1-1, 11 games, 9 saves, .973 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.92 ERA
Player D: 143 ERA+, .911 WHIP, 4.8 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 10.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Performance in save situations: 0-0, 5 Games, .667 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 0.00 ERA.
Player A: Matt Capps
Player B: Jon Rauch
Player C: Brian Fuentes
Player D: Jesse Crain
Not shown on my blog, but the same commenter said that Jesse Crain cannot pitch to left-handers, as well as can't perform in save situations. In 2011, left-handers against Crain have gone .115/.233/.115 while against Capps: .242/.265/.455. In 2010, left-handers went .196/.281/.333 against Crain (remember he can't pitch to left-handers) while against Capps they went .248/.301/.353.
Drew Butera who the Twins are using as backup catcher (well with Mauer's injury and his injury history it's more like a starter) has managed to put up a -18 OPS+, that's a negative sign. Butera might be putting up the worst numbers in the league. Meanwhile, Wilson Ramos who was so expendable in the Matt Capps trade is putting up a slash line of .267/.333/.419, while not spectacular is so much better than Butera's numbers that I do not even have to comment on it.
Finally, my favorite player double play combination Alexei Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka/Luke Hughes. I'll concede that J.J. Hardy isn't really healthy this year but in his 12 games he has put up a slash line of .325/.386/.550 and has out homered the Casilla, Nishioka, Hughes combination (although Trevor Plouffe has been doing pretty well). Nishioka's leg was broken by Nick Swisher in an effort to break up the double play, so I guess I will lay off of him. Nishioka was supposed to be an international star...I don't think that's working out.
This is what my commenter friend said: "Hardy is oft injured and costing $5m, Nishioka and Casilla are not injury prone, potential international stars (which is good for the team in every way), both play solid D at 2 positions, bring speed and combined cost less than Hardy (and I'm even a Hardy fan, that's a smart move)"
Somehow, I doubt that Casilla is an international star. He's not a star on any level. Casilla's OPS+ is a 42. I do not think I have to say anymore.
The 2011 Twins have three players with an OPS+ of over 100, Denard Span (101), Jason Kubel (145), and Trevor Plouffe (183).
It's an embarassing team right now, until Mauer gets back, until Morneau starts hitting again, Liriano pitches well again, and more players start playing better, basically. Handing out starting positions to Butera, Casilla, and Young and handing Capps a $7 million dollar contract is a recipe for disaster and we're seeing it unfold.
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